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#231 Re: The Garden » Current Events Thread » 244 weeks ago

Randall Flagg wrote:

For the record, I sure as shit ain’t hedging my bets off a cookie poll.

It is fun though and it’s how elections used to be. No harm in it.

Poll analysts like Nate Cohn or Nate Silver are easy targets, especially after 2016 and 2018 in Florida. But they and pollsters have covered their ass this time. They miss this one, and hundreds to thousands of people associated with this cottage industry are out of jobs.

I actually think they’re playing it safe. The good thing is, we’ll know in about 24 hours.

#232 Re: The Sunset Strip » GNREvo's Favourite Album of the Century so far, Elimination Round 7 » 244 weeks ago

I guess we all forgot about Killers “Hot Fuss”. Seems like eons ago, but it came out in 2004. It deserved consideration.

#233 Re: The Garden » Current Events Thread » 244 weeks ago

OMG, you guys need to chill out. This race is not suddenly breaking for anyone in either direction. It’s basically the same percentages we’ve seen all year. Nate Silver or 538 are not backtracking off their forecast. They don’t predict stuff or do their own polling, they forecast like a meteorologist. He’s reminding everyone that there is and always has been a chance Trump wins.

There have literally been tens of thousands of polls this year, they all tell the same story nationally and on statewide level. There probably won’t be any real surprises. Florida will be close. Pennsylvania will be close. NC, AZ, Iowa, Texas will be close.

Either guy can really win. Trump wins, and yes it’s an upset, but he can win. Biden can easily win.

It’s fun to go by car caravans and rallies and cookie sales, but real data is out there. Look for it if you want.

I know I’ll probably get shit on for this post, but whatever.

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1323414583592308737?s=21

https://twitter.com/yougovamerica/status/1323381653499203587?s=21

https://twitter.com/cspanwj/status/1323317196244865026?s=21

#234 Re: The Garden » Current Events Thread » 244 weeks ago

Whatever happens, there's gonna be some shocked folks based on our predictions. I'm prepared for anything, and I'm not banking on knowing everything officially tomorrow night, although I think we'll "know", for the most part.

When I pull myself away from the politics of it, I find the polling and the data crunching and the surveys and exit polls to be pretty fascinating. I mean, tomorrow night just watch Pinellas County, Florida, for an idea what will happen nationally. I used to live there when I worked at the St. Pete Times (now the Tampa Times), and it's full of old folks and suburban areas full of white cookie-cutter apartment complexes once you get outside St. Petersburg. It's a bellwether county. If Trump doesn't kick 10 tons of ass there (and in Sumter County, which should be 66-33 for him), it's going to be uphill for him. If he keeps it together there, it'll be a dogfight. Likewise, if Biden doesn't do the same in the Milwaukee County, that's bad news for him.

#235 Re: The Garden » Current Events Thread » 244 weeks ago

A few things with this ludicrous stuff from the Trump campaign.

1) They know they won't win when absentee ballots are counted.
2) The election is never called on election night.
3) This kind of talk is why people have turned out to vote early in person in record numbers.
4) They would have to invalidate a shit ton of GOP votes, too.
5) I think he's wrong anyway. Election night, we'll know the winner.

https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1322926764964913153?s=20

#236 Re: The Garden » Current Events Thread » 244 weeks ago

It was sarcasm, although I know that doesn't really translate over the written word.

#237 Re: The Sunset Strip » New David Lee Roth song » 244 weeks ago

Harmless fun. Not fantastic; not terrible.

#238 Re: The Garden » 270 to win 2020 Edition » 244 weeks ago

Actually Trump wouldn’t win that scenario even with Texas and Pa.

#239 Re: The Garden » Current Events Thread » 244 weeks ago

this is a good tweet

https://twitter.com/joebiden/status/1322569017412997122?s=21

#240 Re: The Garden » Current Events Thread » 244 weeks ago

Trump will be in prison or dead in 2024.

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