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#241 Re: The Garden » Current Events Thread » 244 weeks ago
The answer to your question is it’s impossible to know who benefits from higher voter turnout. Conventional wisdom is that it helps Democrats. But it could help the GOP too. A 100% turnout in, say, Montana isn’t going to suddenly turn that state blue.
In Texas, we’ll have to wait and see. I turned it blue in the 270 to Win thread because of some data points i’m seeing in polls/early voting: younger, urban, blacks, and seniors. Also Beto O’Rourke’s get out the vote organization. I think Texas goes blue before Ohio in the near future. But we’ll know Tuesday.
#242 Re: The Garden » Current Events Thread » 244 weeks ago
?? This is right. Black and Latino men are coming out in greater numbers for Trump than they did in 2016. Biden still leads the category, but by a smaller margin. On the flip side, Biden is getting a greater share of whites. If you do the math, any percentage increase of white support is going to greatly offset and possibly overcome the erosion in blacks and Hispanics. There simply are more white voters out there.
The rest of this post is theory and speculation I’ve seen. BTW, I’m following Nate Silver, Nate Cohn, Dave Wasserman and G Elliott Graham on Twitter. Good stuff if you’re a data geek like me. Anyway, back to fun speculation. You know we had the shy Trump voters in 2016. There are some pretty logical arguments out there that say the shy voter this year is the women married to the men who support Trump. They don’t want to go against their husbands, and let’s say they get a poll call at home, they won’t answer honestly. We already know women are coming out for Biden way more than they did for Clinton, but this group could be getting overlooked.
#243 Re: The Garden » Current Events Thread » 244 weeks ago
bigbri wrote:Smoking Guns wrote:Watching these rallies and lack of those rallies for Biden is almost 2 different worlds. One world where Biden is leading ever poll and Trump has no shot and another world where on the ground everything is pro Trump and you see no Biden. #RIGGED
Well, what you see is one thing.
In things that are actually measured, Biden is ahead. He's been raising more money. He's ahead in the polls. Hell, he got better ratings in the head-to-head televised events.
The polls call on more Dems than Pubs, that is because they expect more to vote. They don’t get an accurate sampling of voters.
This is wrong. Depending on the pollster, more Dems or GOP make up the results. In places like Alaska, I think Independents make up the majority or close to it. It’s across the board.
Pollsters have for the most part corrected what they viewed as their 2016 mistakes. And I know you won’t believe this, but some argue they might actually be underestimating Biden’s support because they corrected the other direction.
#244 Re: The Garden » 270 to win 2020 Edition » 244 weeks ago
bigbri wrote:My last move was Texas. I think it could be the shocker, like Indiana in 2008. Even if Trump keeps it, he'll be short.
<div align="center"><a href="https://www.270towin.com/maps/opDOy"><img src="https://www.270towin.com/map-images/opDOy.png" width="800"></a><br><small><img style="vertical-align:middle;" src="https://www.270towin.com/uploads/3rd_party_270_30px.png" alt="" /> Click the map to create your own at <a href="https://www.270towin.com/maps/opDOy">270toWin.com</a></small></div>
I was struggling to figure out how to post a map too...let me know if you figure it out.
So, use the IMG button atop the comment field here, then just input the "Image URL" that is provided under the map you make. That's how I did it.
#245 Re: The Garden » 270 to win 2020 Edition » 244 weeks ago
Texas was my last move. With the historic turnout, if it's flipping, it'll be now. It could be the shocker, like Indiana in 2008. Even if Trump keeps it, he falls short in this scenario.
#246 Re: The Garden » Current Events Thread » 244 weeks ago
Watching these rallies and lack of those rallies for Biden is almost 2 different worlds. One world where Biden is leading ever poll and Trump has no shot and another world where on the ground everything is pro Trump and you see no Biden. #RIGGED
Well, what you see is one thing.
In things that are actually measured, Biden is ahead. He's been raising more money. He's ahead in the polls. Hell, he got better ratings in the head-to-head televised events.
#247 Re: The Garden » Current Events Thread » 244 weeks ago
Guys, I know this has become the "politics" thread, but it's called "current events."
Sean Connery died. https://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-54761824
#248 Re: The Garden » 270 to win 2020 Edition » 244 weeks ago
this is fun; i’ll pitch in tomorrow...
#249 Re: The Garden » Current Events Thread » 244 weeks ago
That's interesting. Not saying Biden will win it, but Texas. Thats about as Red as CA or NY are blue.
There's no way to say for sure. More Republicans are voting for Biden than Democrats are voting for Trump, and Biden has roughly 45 to 50 percent of the independent vote. On the other hand, Hispanic men are doing well for Trump, so they could save him in Texas. Then again, all signs point to a huge turnout for young voters, who are not only rejecting Trump but the GOP in general.
Basically, any of the pollsters who do this for a living will tell you that early vote can't tell you a whole lot.
#250 Re: The Garden » Current Events Thread » 244 weeks ago
I don’t watch Tucker. I know you’re shocked, right? He has a good delivery.
His comments tonight about why Fox isn’t going after this sleazy personal stuff about Hunter Biden are admirable.
Tucker Carlson, who has spent the past two weeks obsessing on the Hunter Biden emails, now says it's time to leave Hunter alone:
— Justin Baragona (@justinbaragona) October 30, 2020
"The point is pounding on a man, jumping on, and piling on when he’s already down is not something we want to be involved in." pic.twitter.com/25bwCBiSiN
