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TheMole
 Rep: 77 

Re: Covid 19

TheMole wrote:
buzzsaw wrote:
TheMole wrote:
TheMole wrote:

65k deaths in the US today according to the CDC (as reported by the Johns Hopkins tracker), so sticking with my prediction of the US hitting 67k tomorrow or the day after. I still really don't understand how you were getting to 67k by August...

And, as predicted, we've surpassed the 67k mark today.
Also, about that so called "peak", I feel a better description might be "plateau". A peak implies a downward trend, and looking at the data for the past two weeks does not show a downward trend at all. The country seems to be hovering between 1500 and 2000 deaths per day fairly consistently.

Well, they are constantly adding to the data, so sure.  I mean the data is flawed data.  Garbage in, garbage out.

That's a non sequitur, the question was directed at Flagg. Since he was drawing seemingly odd (to me) conclusions from the very same data, I'd be interested in understanding how he came to those conclusions.

mitchejw
 Rep: 128 

Re: Covid 19

mitchejw wrote:
buzzsaw wrote:
mitchejw wrote:
buzzsaw wrote:

Well, they are constantly adding to the data, so sure.  I mean the data is flawed data.  Garbage in, garbage out.

So I suppose all that pouring over data to write your thesis and dissertation on data that don't matter was a big waste of time then, huh?

Answer the other post son...don't waste your time trying to be cute...address the questions asked directly to you since you saw fit to open your big mouth.

First of all, I ain't your son. Second...your criticism of me is that I'm being irrational for being concerned about these things. Be explicit with your questions...I don't want to sort through your soapbox posts. If you have questions just clearly and concisely ask them.

buzzsaw
 Rep: 423 

Re: Covid 19

buzzsaw wrote:
mitchejw wrote:
buzzsaw wrote:
mitchejw wrote:

So I suppose all that pouring over data to write your thesis and dissertation on data that don't matter was a big waste of time then, huh?

Answer the other post son...don't waste your time trying to be cute...address the questions asked directly to you since you saw fit to open your big mouth.

First of all, I ain't your son. Second...your criticism of me is that I'm being irrational for being concerned about these things. Be explicit with your questions...I don't want to sort through your soapbox posts. If you have questions just clearly and concisely ask them.

I'm not putting them in crayon for you.  If you're not concise with your post, you can't expect a concise post in return.

mitchejw
 Rep: 128 

Re: Covid 19

mitchejw wrote:
buzzsaw wrote:
mitchejw wrote:
buzzsaw wrote:

Answer the other post son...don't waste your time trying to be cute...address the questions asked directly to you since you saw fit to open your big mouth.

First of all, I ain't your son. Second...your criticism of me is that I'm being irrational for being concerned about these things. Be explicit with your questions...I don't want to sort through your soapbox posts. If you have questions just clearly and concisely ask them.

I'm not putting them in crayon for you.  If you're not concise with your post, you can't expect a concise post in return.

I need it in crayon.

Randall Flagg
 Rep: 130 

Re: Covid 19

Glad to see Atari Legend is using his moderator powers to turn this into his personal blog.

Re: Covid 19

AtariLegend wrote:
Smoking Guns wrote:

Hydroxychloroquine does work as well, crazy seeing the Trump haters pull against Hydroxychloroquine.

mitchejw
 Rep: 128 

Re: Covid 19

mitchejw wrote:
AtariLegend wrote:
Smoking Guns wrote:

Hydroxychloroquine does work as well, crazy seeing the Trump haters pull against Hydroxychloroquine.

I mean...if Trump says it's true...it's gotta be true...no fact check needed.

Don't ever trust the media...trust Trump with your health.

Randall Flagg
 Rep: 130 

Re: Covid 19

TheMole wrote:
buzzsaw wrote:
TheMole wrote:

And, as predicted, we've surpassed the 67k mark today.
Also, about that so called "peak", I feel a better description might be "plateau". A peak implies a downward trend, and looking at the data for the past two weeks does not show a downward trend at all. The country seems to be hovering between 1500 and 2000 deaths per day fairly consistently.

Well, they are constantly adding to the data, so sure.  I mean the data is flawed data.  Garbage in, garbage out.

That's a non sequitur, the question was directed at Flagg. Since he was drawing seemingly odd (to me) conclusions from the very same data, I'd be interested in understanding how he came to those conclusions.

My county has had its 2nd day with no deaths.  You can track daily deaths and they're dropping, hence we hit our peak over 2 weeks ago.  Since the majority of American deaths occurred in the month of April, and they're slowing, it seems pretty easy to see which models were right and which were way off.  The IMHE model has been the most accurate, and presently predicts 72k deaths in the US by August.  That's 5k more than our dead today, out of a country of 330 million.  The numbers are there, the death rate is coming to a crawl.  I don't know what else you're expecting from me other than the data doesn't support us hitting 100k dead, let alone millions.  And that's with the the CDC saying they're counting influenza and pneumonia deaths in their COVID statistics.  Look up what the most common cause of death is among the elderly, and we're going to attribute all of the deaths in nursing homes to COVID-19?    85k elderly folks die of the flu and pneumonia annually according to the CDC:  https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/ahcd/agin … ersons.pdf

The IMHE is saying we'll hit 72k in this summer, which about 60k  is those over 65.  The CDC is counting every influenza and pneumonia death as a COVID-19 death, and we're still under the annual total of deaths due to infections diseases. 

https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-C … /9bhg-hcku

Here the CDC is saying 37k known COVID-19 deaths in the US as of 01 MAY.  Not the 67k figure, or the hundreds of thousands of deaths far left sites are pushing to built the anti-Trump narrative, and that's what it is.  Tanking the economy and screaming Armageddon serves one purpose, and it's not the best interest of the average American. 

So I don't know what model you're referring to, but even if you use the "garbage" statistic of current death counts, we're way below what was predicted, and we're still #2 in the world behind Germany. 

I'm saying 3 things:

1.) The current means of calculating COVID-19 deaths results in its figures being over represented rather than the opposite
2.) The US is doing a pretty good job all things considered, and better than any other western world save Germany (who isn't inflating their deaths like the US is)
3.) Now that we've flattened the curve and even in NYC, not a single person died due to lack of medical equipment, it's time to start opening back up.

That third one requires ample testing and action from LOCAL authorities.  But in a nation that has 330 million people and stretches 3k miles across, the idea of the federal government dictating measures that apply to everyone is absurd.  Again, Pittsburgh has now gone 2 days without a single death.  We shouldn't be on lockdown because some Indian Reservation in New Mexico is having a surge in cases. 

If the data supports a a continued lockdown, I'll support a continued lockdown.  But it doesn't.  72k deaths is approx .02% of the American population.  I don't think the fear of that number, especially when it's entirely directed at the elderly and immune compromised, warrants destroying the economy and our standard of living because some people are "scared".  I've done what was asked of me and have only left my home once a week to get groceries the past 7 weeks.  I'll continue to do so.

Studies are now coming out saying anywhere from 10-25% of the population has the antibodies of COVID.  Let's go with the most conservative estimate and say 10%.  10% of America or 33 Million people have been infected with COVID.  67k have died.  67k out of 33 million infected is a .02% mortality rate.  You know what else has a .02% mortality rate in the US annually?  The Flu.  The disease the same  "experts" pushing the "millions dead" narrative mock Trump for comparing COVID to.

misterID
 Rep: 469 

Re: Covid 19

misterID wrote:
buzzsaw wrote:
misterID wrote:

Mitch is not being unreasonable in his concern. We still don't really understand this disease, or how badly this thing is fucking people up. Young people are having strokes with it and no one knows why. All I see are people telling us to take their word, everything is fine and only old people are dying.

Because that's what ALL of the actual data says.  If anything we're being asked to take it at people's word that this is a big issue for most people...none of the data says that.

I've said since this began we don't know, so I'm not disagreeing with that part.  What I am disagreeing with is this being the way you handle something you don't know.  That is completely irrational.

The meat packing industries kept people at work during the quarantine, they followed safety guidelines, and their workforce is now wiped out with covid, their entire industry is crippled, they're now staring down the barrel at class action lawsuits. I'm sure companies are looking at Tyson and thinking they made the right decision to comply with stay at home orders.

buzzsaw
 Rep: 423 

Re: Covid 19

buzzsaw wrote:
misterID wrote:
buzzsaw wrote:
misterID wrote:

Mitch is not being unreasonable in his concern. We still don't really understand this disease, or how badly this thing is fucking people up. Young people are having strokes with it and no one knows why. All I see are people telling us to take their word, everything is fine and only old people are dying.

Because that's what ALL of the actual data says.  If anything we're being asked to take it at people's word that this is a big issue for most people...none of the data says that.

I've said since this began we don't know, so I'm not disagreeing with that part.  What I am disagreeing with is this being the way you handle something you don't know.  That is completely irrational.

The meat packing industries kept people at work during the quarantine, they followed safety guidelines, and their workforce is now wiped out with covid, their entire industry is crippled, they're now staring down the barrel at class action lawsuits. I'm sure companies are looking at Tyson and thinking they made the right decision to comply with stay at home orders.

What does that have to do with what I posted?  No response to what I said, so you take a sharp left on a fishing expedition to see if anything nibbles there? 

How many of those people died?  How many of those (if any) that died were at risk and shouldn't have been at work in the first place?  This is like the political thread all over again...if you're not 100% behind shutting everything down, then you're 100% for opening everything up.  No.  There's a lot of area between those. 

I'll say it for the gazillionth time hoping this sinks into someone's (anyone's) thick skulls.  Isolate the elderly and the at-risk.  That one simple task does as much if not more than what we've done to date.  It's not an opinion; it's the numbers.  The numbers tell you who is at risk.  Not the news, not random people that had random outliers happen to them or someone they love.  The numbers.

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