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mitchejw
 Rep: 128 

Re: Covid 19

mitchejw wrote:
Randall Flagg wrote:
TheMole wrote:
buzzsaw wrote:

Well, they are constantly adding to the data, so sure.  I mean the data is flawed data.  Garbage in, garbage out.

That's a non sequitur, the question was directed at Flagg. Since he was drawing seemingly odd (to me) conclusions from the very same data, I'd be interested in understanding how he came to those conclusions.

My county has had its 2nd day with no deaths.  You can track daily deaths and they're dropping, hence we hit our peak over 2 weeks ago.  Since the majority of American deaths occurred in the month of April, and they're slowing, it seems pretty easy to see which models were right and which were way off.  The IMHE model has been the most accurate, and presently predicts 72k deaths in the US by August.  That's 5k more than our dead today, out of a country of 330 million.  The numbers are there, the death rate is coming to a crawl.  I don't know what else you're expecting from me other than the data doesn't support us hitting 100k dead, let alone millions.  And that's with the the CDC saying they're counting influenza and pneumonia deaths in their COVID statistics.  Look up what the most common cause of death is among the elderly, and we're going to attribute all of the deaths in nursing homes to COVID-19?    85k elderly folks die of the flu and pneumonia annually according to the CDC:  https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/ahcd/agin … ersons.pdf

The IMHE is saying we'll hit 72k in this summer, which about 60k  is those over 65.  The CDC is counting every influenza and pneumonia death as a COVID-19 death, and we're still under the annual total of deaths due to infections diseases. 

https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-C … /9bhg-hcku

Here the CDC is saying 37k known COVID-19 deaths in the US as of 01 MAY.  Not the 67k figure, or the hundreds of thousands of deaths far left sites are pushing to built the anti-Trump narrative, and that's what it is.  Tanking the economy and screaming Armageddon serves one purpose, and it's not the best interest of the average American. 

So I don't know what model you're referring to, but even if you use the "garbage" statistic of current death counts, we're way below what was predicted, and we're still #2 in the world behind Germany. 

I'm saying 3 things:

1.) The current means of calculating COVID-19 deaths results in its figures being over represented rather than the opposite
2.) The US is doing a pretty good job all things considered, and better than any other western world save Germany (who isn't inflating their deaths like the US is)
3.) Now that we've flattened the curve and even in NYC, not a single person died due to lack of medical equipment, it's time to start opening back up.

That third one requires ample testing and action from LOCAL authorities.  But in a nation that has 330 million people and stretches 3k miles across, the idea of the federal government dictating measures that apply to everyone is absurd.  Again, Pittsburgh has now gone 2 days without a single death.  We shouldn't be on lockdown because some Indian Reservation in New Mexico is having a surge in cases. 

If the data supports a a continued lockdown, I'll support a continued lockdown.  But it doesn't.  72k deaths is approx .02% of the American population.  I don't think the fear of that number, especially when it's entirely directed at the elderly and immune compromised, warrants destroying the economy and our standard of living because some people are "scared".  I've done what was asked of me and have only left my home once a week to get groceries the past 7 weeks.  I'll continue to do so.

Studies are now coming out saying anywhere from 10-25% of the population has the antibodies of COVID.  Let's go with the most conservative estimate and say 10%.  10% of America or 33 Million people have been infected with COVID.  67k have died.  67k out of 33 million infected is a .02% mortality rate.  You know what else has a .02% mortality rate in the US annually?  The Flu.  The disease the same  "experts" pushing the "millions dead" narrative mock Trump for comparing COVID to.

This is such a weird way to look at it....not enough people have died for your taste? But if a lot of people died you'd say, 'see...this quarantine thing was a waste of time.'

I don't see why the federal government shouldn't be funding some of this LOCAL testing. That's where Trump has dropped the ball the most. He should have put full resources behind tests. If you know whether or not you've already had it, then that changes your individual course of action.

I disagree with the assertion that the tests are over-estimating. That's an opinion and it sounds like an opinion of a writer that wants things to get back to normal.

I'm sorry...I'm looking at the same deaths you are. There's another column that says death pneumonia and co-vid...why wouldn't you count that?

Even the Trump admin thinks it's not getting better: https://ktla.com/news/local-news/trump- … by-june-1/

misterID
 Rep: 469 

Re: Covid 19

misterID wrote:
buzzsaw wrote:
misterID wrote:
buzzsaw wrote:

Because that's what ALL of the actual data says.  If anything we're being asked to take it at people's word that this is a big issue for most people...none of the data says that.

I've said since this began we don't know, so I'm not disagreeing with that part.  What I am disagreeing with is this being the way you handle something you don't know.  That is completely irrational.

The meat packing industries kept people at work during the quarantine, they followed safety guidelines, and their workforce is now wiped out with covid, their entire industry is crippled, they're now staring down the barrel at class action lawsuits. I'm sure companies are looking at Tyson and thinking they made the right decision to comply with stay at home orders.

What does that have to do with what I posted?  No response to what I said, so you take a sharp left on a fishing expedition to see if anything nibbles there? 

How many of those people died?  How many of those (if any) that died were at risk and shouldn't have been at work in the first place?  This is like the political thread all over again...if you're not 100% behind shutting everything down, then you're 100% for opening everything up.  No.  There's a lot of area between those. 

I'll say it for the gazillionth time hoping this sinks into someone's (anyone's) thick skulls.  Isolate the elderly and the at-risk.  That one simple task does as much if not more than what we've done to date.  It's not an opinion; it's the numbers.  The numbers tell you who is at risk.  Not the news, not random people that had random outliers happen to them or someone they love.  The numbers.


No, dude, you keep ignoring the point that's brought up a gazillion times that it's not just death rates. Businesses closed on their own accord because the sickness would make things worse than just sending folks home. There's a lot more to this than death rates... It's not a flu, people don't just bounce back from it. This is an unhealthy nation with people who don't know they have underlying health issues. Nursing homes, places where the elderly are LITERALLY separated and isolated from everyone else, are getting wiped out, so your argument about that simple, solitary task is complete bullshit.

You're relying on people to do the right thing out there and be hygienic and they aren't. They just want to ride around in cars and scream they're right and everyone else is wrong.

mitchejw
 Rep: 128 

Re: Covid 19

mitchejw wrote:
buzzsaw wrote:
misterID wrote:
buzzsaw wrote:

Because that's what ALL of the actual data says.  If anything we're being asked to take it at people's word that this is a big issue for most people...none of the data says that.

I've said since this began we don't know, so I'm not disagreeing with that part.  What I am disagreeing with is this being the way you handle something you don't know.  That is completely irrational.

The meat packing industries kept people at work during the quarantine, they followed safety guidelines, and their workforce is now wiped out with covid, their entire industry is crippled, they're now staring down the barrel at class action lawsuits. I'm sure companies are looking at Tyson and thinking they made the right decision to comply with stay at home orders.

What does that have to do with what I posted?  No response to what I said, so you take a sharp left on a fishing expedition to see if anything nibbles there? 

How many of those people died?  How many of those (if any) that died were at risk and shouldn't have been at work in the first place?  This is like the political thread all over again...if you're not 100% behind shutting everything down, then you're 100% for opening everything up.  No.  There's a lot of area between those. 

I'll say it for the gazillionth time hoping this sinks into someone's (anyone's) thick skulls.  Isolate the elderly and the at-risk.  That one simple task does as much if not more than what we've done to date.  It's not an opinion; it's the numbers.  The numbers tell you who is at risk.  Not the news, not random people that had random outliers happen to them or someone they love.  The numbers.

And I"ll say it again...this is too simplistic...you know this won't work. People are already not following the rules. All it takes is one asshole walking into a nursing home who doesn't care.

3,000 deaths a day by June buzz....I hope you keep singing this tune all the way through the summer. By my count, that means 90,000 more deaths by the end of June.

GET PEOPLE TESTED AND LET'S FIND OUT WHO IS AND IS NOT INFECTED! Then we'll talk.

buzzsaw
 Rep: 423 

Re: Covid 19

buzzsaw wrote:
misterID wrote:
buzzsaw wrote:
misterID wrote:

The meat packing industries kept people at work during the quarantine, they followed safety guidelines, and their workforce is now wiped out with covid, their entire industry is crippled, they're now staring down the barrel at class action lawsuits. I'm sure companies are looking at Tyson and thinking they made the right decision to comply with stay at home orders.

What does that have to do with what I posted?  No response to what I said, so you take a sharp left on a fishing expedition to see if anything nibbles there? 

How many of those people died?  How many of those (if any) that died were at risk and shouldn't have been at work in the first place?  This is like the political thread all over again...if you're not 100% behind shutting everything down, then you're 100% for opening everything up.  No.  There's a lot of area between those. 

I'll say it for the gazillionth time hoping this sinks into someone's (anyone's) thick skulls.  Isolate the elderly and the at-risk.  That one simple task does as much if not more than what we've done to date.  It's not an opinion; it's the numbers.  The numbers tell you who is at risk.  Not the news, not random people that had random outliers happen to them or someone they love.  The numbers.


No, dude, you keep ignoring the point that's brought up a gazillion times that it's not just death rates. Businesses closed on their own accord because the sickness would make things worse than just sending folks home. There's a lot more to this than death rates... It's not a flu, people don't just bounce back from it. This is an unhealthy nation with people who don't know they have underlying health issues. Nursing homes, places where the elderly are LITERALLY separated and isolated from everyone else, are getting wiped out, so your argument about that simple, solitary task is complete bullshit.

You're relying on people to do the right thing out there and be hygienic and they aren't. They just want to ride around in cars and scream they're right and everyone else is wrong.

No, you're not understanding because you're making no effort to do so.  The media has convinced you that it's an instant death sentence and you've bought into it hook line and sinker.  The numbers tell the complete opposite story, but you do ignorant you. 

The elderly are the ones at risk chump.  Do you understand that?  The virus doesn't seek them out.  It doesn't fly across the globe and invade nursing homes.  It's like you just have no concept of how any of this works.  You must have a different definition of isolation than the rest of the world.  Individuals that should be isolating themselves because they are responsible for those at risk aren't doing so.  We don't punish everybody because a few people do what they want to do.  That's not how civilization works.  Let me say this again so it sinks in just how fucking stupid you are...PEOPLE ARE SUPPOSED TO BE ISOLATING AND YET THIS SHIT HAPPENS ANYWAY.  What the fuck are we accomplishing?  All the numbers are trending downward...even in the hardest hit places.  There are a few random hotspots.  The numbers ALL bear that out, but damned if we don't have the gullible that can't process anything without being told what to think.

bigbri
 Rep: 341 

Re: Covid 19

bigbri wrote:
Randall Flagg wrote:
TheMole wrote:
buzzsaw wrote:

Well, they are constantly adding to the data, so sure.  I mean the data is flawed data.  Garbage in, garbage out.

That's a non sequitur, the question was directed at Flagg. Since he was drawing seemingly odd (to me) conclusions from the very same data, I'd be interested in understanding how he came to those conclusions.

The IMHE is saying we'll hit 72k in this summer, which about 60k  is those over 65.  The CDC is counting every influenza and pneumonia death as a COVID-19 death, and we're still under the annual total of deaths due to infections diseases.

The IHME model is going up to 134K today. https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/04/health/u … index.html

buzzsaw
 Rep: 423 

Re: Covid 19

buzzsaw wrote:
mitchejw wrote:
buzzsaw wrote:
misterID wrote:

The meat packing industries kept people at work during the quarantine, they followed safety guidelines, and their workforce is now wiped out with covid, their entire industry is crippled, they're now staring down the barrel at class action lawsuits. I'm sure companies are looking at Tyson and thinking they made the right decision to comply with stay at home orders.

What does that have to do with what I posted?  No response to what I said, so you take a sharp left on a fishing expedition to see if anything nibbles there? 

How many of those people died?  How many of those (if any) that died were at risk and shouldn't have been at work in the first place?  This is like the political thread all over again...if you're not 100% behind shutting everything down, then you're 100% for opening everything up.  No.  There's a lot of area between those. 

I'll say it for the gazillionth time hoping this sinks into someone's (anyone's) thick skulls.  Isolate the elderly and the at-risk.  That one simple task does as much if not more than what we've done to date.  It's not an opinion; it's the numbers.  The numbers tell you who is at risk.  Not the news, not random people that had random outliers happen to them or someone they love.  The numbers.

And I"ll say it again...this is too simplistic...you know this won't work. People are already not following the rules. All it takes is one asshole walking into a nursing home who doesn't care.

3,000 deaths a day by June buzz....I hope you keep singing this tune all the way through the summer. By my count, that means 90,000 more deaths by the end of June.

GET PEOPLE TESTED AND LET'S FIND OUT WHO IS AND IS NOT INFECTED! Then we'll talk.

Stop making shit up.  Read REAL numbers mitch.  Don't believe it because CNN told you.  Facts bro...get some.

misterID
 Rep: 469 

Re: Covid 19

misterID wrote:
buzzsaw wrote:
misterID wrote:
buzzsaw wrote:

What does that have to do with what I posted?  No response to what I said, so you take a sharp left on a fishing expedition to see if anything nibbles there? 

How many of those people died?  How many of those (if any) that died were at risk and shouldn't have been at work in the first place?  This is like the political thread all over again...if you're not 100% behind shutting everything down, then you're 100% for opening everything up.  No.  There's a lot of area between those. 

I'll say it for the gazillionth time hoping this sinks into someone's (anyone's) thick skulls.  Isolate the elderly and the at-risk.  That one simple task does as much if not more than what we've done to date.  It's not an opinion; it's the numbers.  The numbers tell you who is at risk.  Not the news, not random people that had random outliers happen to them or someone they love.  The numbers.


No, dude, you keep ignoring the point that's brought up a gazillion times that it's not just death rates. Businesses closed on their own accord because the sickness would make things worse than just sending folks home. There's a lot more to this than death rates... It's not a flu, people don't just bounce back from it. This is an unhealthy nation with people who don't know they have underlying health issues. Nursing homes, places where the elderly are LITERALLY separated and isolated from everyone else, are getting wiped out, so your argument about that simple, solitary task is complete bullshit.

You're relying on people to do the right thing out there and be hygienic and they aren't. They just want to ride around in cars and scream they're right and everyone else is wrong.

No, you're not understanding because you're making no effort to do so.  The media has convinced you that it's an instant death sentence and you've bought into it hook line and sinker.  The numbers tell the complete opposite story, but you do ignorant you. 

The elderly are the ones at risk chump.  Do you understand that?  The virus doesn't seek them out.  It doesn't fly across the globe and invade nursing homes.  It's like you just have no concept of how any of this works.  You must have a different definition of isolation than the rest of the world.  Individuals that should be isolating themselves because they are responsible for those at risk aren't doing so.  We don't punish everybody because a few people do what they want to do.  That's not how civilization works.  Let me say this again so it sinks in just how fucking stupid you are...PEOPLE ARE SUPPOSED TO BE ISOLATING AND YET THIS SHIT HAPPENS ANYWAY.  What the fuck are we accomplishing?  All the numbers are trending downward...even in the hardest hit places.  There are a few random hotspots.  The numbers ALL bear that out, but damned if we don't have the gullible that can't process anything without being told what to think.

lol, I just said this isn't just about death. And have a little self awareness, because the unintentional comedy of your posts is hilarious. You're talking to yourself. Death rates are low and dropping because people are staying home. And...
this isn't just about death rates
this isn't just about death rates
this isn't just about death rates
this isn't just about death rates
this isn't just about death rates
Nursing homes are not protecting the elderly. The most at risk. Where the country has opened back up, cops are saying people ARE NOT practicing good hygiene or proper distancing. Relying on people to do the right thing is not a good idea, imo. smile

bigbri
 Rep: 341 

Re: Covid 19

bigbri wrote:
buzzsaw wrote:
mitchejw wrote:
buzzsaw wrote:

What does that have to do with what I posted?  No response to what I said, so you take a sharp left on a fishing expedition to see if anything nibbles there? 

How many of those people died?  How many of those (if any) that died were at risk and shouldn't have been at work in the first place?  This is like the political thread all over again...if you're not 100% behind shutting everything down, then you're 100% for opening everything up.  No.  There's a lot of area between those. 

I'll say it for the gazillionth time hoping this sinks into someone's (anyone's) thick skulls.  Isolate the elderly and the at-risk.  That one simple task does as much if not more than what we've done to date.  It's not an opinion; it's the numbers.  The numbers tell you who is at risk.  Not the news, not random people that had random outliers happen to them or someone they love.  The numbers.

And I"ll say it again...this is too simplistic...you know this won't work. People are already not following the rules. All it takes is one asshole walking into a nursing home who doesn't care.

3,000 deaths a day by June buzz....I hope you keep singing this tune all the way through the summer. By my count, that means 90,000 more deaths by the end of June.

GET PEOPLE TESTED AND LET'S FIND OUT WHO IS AND IS NOT INFECTED! Then we'll talk.

Stop making shit up.  Read REAL numbers mitch.  Don't believe it because CNN told you.  Facts bro...get some.

Well, 3,000 a day is what the CDC is now projecting. https://int.nyt.com/data/documenthelper … pdf#page=1

mitchejw
 Rep: 128 

Re: Covid 19

mitchejw wrote:
buzzsaw wrote:
misterID wrote:
buzzsaw wrote:

What does that have to do with what I posted?  No response to what I said, so you take a sharp left on a fishing expedition to see if anything nibbles there? 

How many of those people died?  How many of those (if any) that died were at risk and shouldn't have been at work in the first place?  This is like the political thread all over again...if you're not 100% behind shutting everything down, then you're 100% for opening everything up.  No.  There's a lot of area between those. 

I'll say it for the gazillionth time hoping this sinks into someone's (anyone's) thick skulls.  Isolate the elderly and the at-risk.  That one simple task does as much if not more than what we've done to date.  It's not an opinion; it's the numbers.  The numbers tell you who is at risk.  Not the news, not random people that had random outliers happen to them or someone they love.  The numbers.


No, dude, you keep ignoring the point that's brought up a gazillion times that it's not just death rates. Businesses closed on their own accord because the sickness would make things worse than just sending folks home. There's a lot more to this than death rates... It's not a flu, people don't just bounce back from it. This is an unhealthy nation with people who don't know they have underlying health issues. Nursing homes, places where the elderly are LITERALLY separated and isolated from everyone else, are getting wiped out, so your argument about that simple, solitary task is complete bullshit.

You're relying on people to do the right thing out there and be hygienic and they aren't. They just want to ride around in cars and scream they're right and everyone else is wrong.

No, you're not understanding because you're making no effort to do so.  The media has convinced you that it's an instant death sentence and you've bought into it hook line and sinker.  The numbers tell the complete opposite story, but you do ignorant you. 

The elderly are the ones at risk chump.  Do you understand that?  The virus doesn't seek them out.  It doesn't fly across the globe and invade nursing homes.  It's like you just have no concept of how any of this works.  You must have a different definition of isolation than the rest of the world.  Individuals that should be isolating themselves because they are responsible for those at risk aren't doing so.  We don't punish everybody because a few people do what they want to do.  That's not how civilization works.  Let me say this again so it sinks in just how fucking stupid you are...PEOPLE ARE SUPPOSED TO BE ISOLATING AND YET THIS SHIT HAPPENS ANYWAY.  What the fuck are we accomplishing?  All the numbers are trending downward...even in the hardest hit places.  There are a few random hotspots.  The numbers ALL bear that out, but damned if we don't have the gullible that can't process anything without being told what to think.

oops mistake post

mitchejw
 Rep: 128 

Re: Covid 19

mitchejw wrote:
buzzsaw wrote:
mitchejw wrote:
buzzsaw wrote:

What does that have to do with what I posted?  No response to what I said, so you take a sharp left on a fishing expedition to see if anything nibbles there? 

How many of those people died?  How many of those (if any) that died were at risk and shouldn't have been at work in the first place?  This is like the political thread all over again...if you're not 100% behind shutting everything down, then you're 100% for opening everything up.  No.  There's a lot of area between those. 

I'll say it for the gazillionth time hoping this sinks into someone's (anyone's) thick skulls.  Isolate the elderly and the at-risk.  That one simple task does as much if not more than what we've done to date.  It's not an opinion; it's the numbers.  The numbers tell you who is at risk.  Not the news, not random people that had random outliers happen to them or someone they love.  The numbers.

And I"ll say it again...this is too simplistic...you know this won't work. People are already not following the rules. All it takes is one asshole walking into a nursing home who doesn't care.

3,000 deaths a day by June buzz....I hope you keep singing this tune all the way through the summer. By my count, that means 90,000 more deaths by the end of June.

GET PEOPLE TESTED AND LET'S FIND OUT WHO IS AND IS NOT INFECTED! Then we'll talk.

Stop making shit up.  Read REAL numbers mitch.  Don't believe it because CNN told you.  Facts bro...get some.

Good god man...get a grip on yourself. There are several columns...there are two or three columns that count covid deaths both singularly and in combination with other things like the flu or pneumonia. The total deaths are not just 38k. Read the whole table...my god you have anger issues.

Here we are again with all knowing Buzz insulting people into submission.

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