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#1101 Re: The Garden » US Politics Thread » 499 weeks ago
Hindsight is 20/20 eh? Yeah, online polls...which the British media told you not to trust, until they had no choice. Have we really forgotten this already?
The final polls ahead of Britain’s historic referendum decision have pointed to a Remain victory, amid reports of high turnout across the country.
An online Populus poll, the last conducted before voting began, gave Remain a 10-point lead, 55 to 45, its strongest performance in days.
Throughout the referendum campaign, online polls have tended to favour the Leave side.
A telephone poll, also published on polling day, for Ipsos MORI in the Evening Standard, also gave Remain the lead but by a smaller 52 to 48 margin.
An online YouGov poll last night gave Remain a 51-49 lead, while a telephone poll for ComRes had Remain leading 54-46.
Election forecasting experts said that for Leave to win now, it would represent an even bigger polling error than was seen ahead of 2015 or 1992 General Elections.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po … 97261.html
I don't know about you, but this here is looking like a pretty similar scenario to what is going on in America right now.
#1102 Re: The Garden » US Politics Thread » 499 weeks ago
Brexit polls were accurate now?
Yeah, some of them were. The same ones saying Trump will win this, online polls.
#1103 Re: The Garden » US Politics Thread » 499 weeks ago
Now THAT's a take. #AlSmithDinner pic.twitter.com/NFnwLXpYgk
— Paul F. Tompkins (@PFTompkins) October 21, 2016
#1104 Re: The Garden » US Politics Thread » 499 weeks ago
#1105 Re: The Garden » US Politics Thread » 499 weeks ago
Hey, I am the conspiracy theorist here! 
I considered that a possibility for a long time, but I'm no longer sure the kind of abuse he lays on Hillary can be arranged. Bill too, having his sexual perversions laid out in a Presidential debate. Don't see them inviting that.
#1106 Re: The Garden » US Politics Thread » 499 weeks ago
I think they got their money's worth, Bill and Hillary that is. Trump has made no qualms about being cozy with politicians on both sides.
#1107 Re: The Garden » US Politics Thread » 499 weeks ago
polluxlm wrote:Even a cynic like me is rooting for him.
Ah, now I get it. You think that if EVEN a cynic like you supports him, other independents surely must too... of course, it might just as well be the case that it takes a very special kind of cynic to support him, no?
If it took my kind of cynic he'd be polling less than 1%. He's got the support of tens of millions of Americans. And there's a bunch of polls showing him beating her by 20 points with independents. But that was like 3 weeks ago right, so that's all gone now? You go ask a real pollster how statistically likely that is. Trump has been the independent choice from the start. That won't change, not for Hillary Clinton.
#1108 Re: The Garden » US Politics Thread » 499 weeks ago
Pat Caddell: ‘Polling Is All Over the Place… Shock Potential Is Enormous’
Pollster and analyst Pat Caddell discussed recent presidential election polling on Friday with Breitbart News Daily SiriusXM host Alex Marlow, saying, “Something is going on in this country in these polls.”
“All of the tracking polls keep holding at Trump being ahead,” he continued. “And then all of these other polls that are one-off polls, or whatever … I don’t know how they’re doing some of these university polls. You just put the name of some university and apparently it becomes credible, whether they know what they’re doing, or not.
Caddell was pointing out the discrepancy between the different types of polls. “But in any event, polling is all over the place…. Something isn’t adding up,” said Caddell.
“Something is going to happen here, I just sense it,” he concluded. Either “Hillary will glide into the White House, or we’re headed for one of the greatest shocks in American politics. I think it’s a very close call. I think the shock potential is enormous.”
#1109 Re: The Garden » US Politics Thread » 499 weeks ago
CNN? Of course they don't mention that democrats always push for early voting and has been leading pubs on that for years. The amount of voters relative to last election though is advantage Trump. And he wins independents big in any honest polling, which shouldn't come as a surprise. He is the enthusiasm candidate. Even a cynic like me is rooting for him.
Quote is from here: https://twitter.com/mitchellvii?lang=en
#1110 Re: The Garden » US Politics Thread » 499 weeks ago
Polls oversampling dems, women and now college degrees.
This is what it will come down to:
In NC first day early voting, Dems down 11%, Reps down 7% but Inds UP 28% from 2012. That's the Monster Vote coming out for Trump!
Any polling modeling itself on the 2012 election is in for a rude awakening.
