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#1251 Re: The Garden » 2016 Presidential Election Thread » 508 weeks ago
Trump’s Inevitable Comeback
Donald Trump is slowly proving himself to be the most masterful politician in the history of the United States of America. We all remember the excited anticipation in the spring of 2015. With the end of the disastrous Obama administration fast approaching and the momentum of two landslide victories by the GOP in the House in 2010 and the Senate in 2014, the White House felt ripe for the taking with the coming election in 2016. For months we caught glimpses of an enormous and diverse field mobilizing for a possible bid for the highest office in the land. Will we see a rematch of Bush vs Clinton? What will become of the most interesting man in politics, Rand Paul? Will Chris Christie capitalize on his exposure from the 2012 Republican Convention? Who the hell is John Kasich? The instability wrought by two successive defeats at the hands of Barack Obama tore the Republican Party in half, leaving a power vacuum so large that 16 individual candidates accepted the call to fight. Conservatives knew they had a good shot; but they only had one shot, as the fate of the nation was (is) hanging in the balance. Uncertainty gripped conservatives nationwide.
And then there was Trump. Those on the Trump Train, myself included, have grown fond of reliving and retelling the glory of Trump’s march to the nomination. For months we watched that long-shot reality TV star single handedly end campaign after campaign from center stage of each Republican debate and behind that charmingly ridiculous profile picture on Twitter. Because we do not have the historical luxury of retrospect, the vast majority of people cannot comprehend and thus have not acknowledged the impossibility of what we witnessed just months ago. The contentiousness of the primary and of the general now has blinded the electorate with their political prejudices to the gravity of Trump’s victory, not for himself, but for us. Does anybody remember what politics was like before Trump? Does anybody remember what Republican meant before Trump? Does anybody remember what the media was like before Trump?
Trump said at the celebrated conclusion to his Republican National Convention, “I am your voice!” And what a biblical proclamation. To a country held hostage for decades by a fascistic political correctness omerta enforced by the green-haired lesbian Gestapo of Twitter, a statement like that should rival the Declaration of Independence. What hope was there in 2016, except for a Republican President? We asked for at the very least a Democrat-lite mulligan for the Bush family and The Donald gave us a promise to “smash through” the entire political machine of the liberal media-political-financial cartel. In 2014, totally sensible and maybe borderline racist discussions about the politics of immigration, race, and terrorism took place behind closed doors at family holiday parties and golf outings. “America first,” “border wall,” and “Muslim ban,” were phrases considered uncouth by even the conservative party in the bourgeois cesspool of internationalist Washington DC. Today the common sense of the everyman is broadcast on television every night in the throaty voice of a New York madman. The uncomplicated, unapologetic voice of the American people rising up to take their country back.
But of course no odyssey is complete without its monsters. Many times in the Homeric quest of our champion, the monied interests declared victory over the voice of the people in silent headlines and through the quiet, cultured mouths of mainstream talking heads. Ted Cruz’s upset win in the Wisconsin primary had the #NeverTrump mob salivating, surely there was no path forward to the then fabled and now forgotten magical number, 1237! Before the week was up, Frank Sinatra’s New York, New York played as The Donald emerged from his ragtag indie staff to claim a landslide victory in the empire state, 1237 in striking distance.
Fresh off of securing the required amount of pledged delegates in June, the most ardent passengers of the Trump Train gasped as our embattled conductor’s poll numbers began to drop for the first time in a full year. Outclassed in fundraising, surrounded by media lapdogs leashed by Democrat handlers, and now losing against the only opponent that mattered, it appeared to most that the great populist experiment of 2016 had derailed. Bill Kristol groomed a spoiler, historical footnote David French, and a counter coup consolidated behind Lyin’ Ted Cruz to unseat the presumptive nominee in Cleveland. Wasthis the final hour? Within the month, Trump’s monthly fundraising totals increased by 5000% and he overtook Hillary Clinton in nationwide polling and in most battleground states. By the time of his coronation at the RNC, Trump had the Clinton camp on the ropes and reeling from revolt within her own party; the White House was in sight. A Trump Presidency became the likely outcome.
Enter the present crisis. The Clinton DNC pulled no punches and scored more hits on Trump than all of his primary opponents combined. A disabled girl, an illegal immigrant, the parents of slain BLM poster thugs, token homosexuals, Michelle Obama’s arms, a confused Irish racist, a confused Arkansas rapist, and the President of the United States. All of this followed up by a concussed bag of meat that we’re not entirely sure wasn’t being propped up by a couple of goons like in Weekend at Bernie’s. Then of course there was the Muslim gold star father with the Democrats’ favorite political prop: the Constitution. The perfect victim, the perfect poison pill; and Trump took the bait. Even though Khan turned out to be an actual Islamic supremacist and Saudi based Islamist operative, Trump learned the hard way that the truth has no practical political value if it’s only written about in Breitbart.
His first fumble sent his odds on FiveThirtyEight to single digits once he bottomed out. Trump continues to poll behind nationally in battleground states and nationally. Far behind. For the first time since June, there are murmurs within elite Republican circles about replacing Trump as the nominee. Paul Nehlen, Paul Ryan’s primary opponent, ran on a platform singularly consisting of support for Donald Trump (and Chicago based bloggers getting in fights with Janesville municipal officials) and was soundly defeated only after Trump was cornered into endorsing Ryan just days before the election. Even Sean Hannity and Newt Gingrich begrudgingly acknowledged the state of a failing campaign in free fall.
And now, once again, the odds are stacked against Trump. The media narrative for weeks has pronounced the madman DOA and Hillary Clinton is favored overwhelmingly in almost every traditional measure for predicting the outcome of presidential elections. But there is evidence already of another comeback. Beginning with a speech last week in Ohio, a refined message has begun to take shape. In it, he laid out a more comprehensive and sensible strategy to foreign affairs with an important and politically brilliant emphasis on the rejection of Bush-era neoconservatism and the Iraq War. This week he continued with another speech delivered from a teleprompter in Milwaukee; possibly the first speech in modern history in which a Republican appealed explicitly to black voters. The speech was widely praised by conservatives of all stripes and set the foundation for the necessary target constituency to win in November.
With a mainstream and moderate, yet populist message, it is apparent that Trump is deliberately changing method and message to fight a winning general election campaign. New campaign additions such as Roger Ailes, Kellyanne Conway, and Stephen Bannon have been recruited this week and are rapidly refocusing Trump on a streamlined message. Today, the campaign’s first television ads will air in Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. All of this has come as Hillary’s lead in the RCP polling average has fallen from eight to six points, and Trump is capitalizing on this cyclical swing with brute force and cold precision. Yesterday in North Carolina, he expressed regret for his misstatements. We are in the midst of another miracle.
Each Trump comeback, each Trump readjustment only proves that not only is this man capable to occupy the Oval Office, he is perhaps the most capable man. For starters, he is a 6? 2? American titan who, at 70 years old, sleeps only four hours a night and without drinking coffee or alcohol runs a $10 billion empire and flies from city to city each day to give 60 minute extemporaneous speeches in an historical bid for the most powerful office in the world. This compared with Hillary Clinton who is overcome with exhaustion after short speeches, cannot stand for prolonged periods of time, cannot sit up for prolonged periods of time, is prone to seizures, has trouble climbing stairs, is “often confused,” has not hosted a press conference in 8 months, and is paralyzed by anxiety when heckled. How will she fair against a man who once clotheslined the founder of WWF at Wrestlemania?
Aside from the physical wonder that is Donald Trump, his pending comeback perfectly demonstrates the pragmatism which qualifies him for the presidency. With each crisis presented, Trump has either punched through when the challenge was unserious or methodically calibrated an unbeatable tactic when the challenge is real. As detailed earlier, Trump won the pre-primary media contest, the primary election contest, successfully adjusted to the general, ascended to new heights with his RNC, and now is poised to defeat the American media in a fist fight. Obama got elected with the assistance of every political institution in the country including the opposing party. If Hillary gets elected, she will have been handed the job by a political machine that buried the visible reality that she is dying and that she should have been indicted by the FBI. Donald Trump, if elected, will have taken on the Republican Party, Fox News, the mainstream media, Wall Street, the federal government, Facebook, Twitter, the President, three former Presidents, and the continent of Europe, and won.
He has not gotten this far because “he says what people are thinking.” Andrew Dice Clay says things people are thinking. Donald Trump has gotten this far, and will be the next President of the United States, because he is supremely pragmatic, ruthlessly calculating, and quite possibly the most brilliant strategist in the world today. He is sizing up yet another miraculous comeback; and though it may not be the last, thought it may not be decisive, it will prove that this election will not be decided until November 8th. And it will be decided on Trump’s terms.
#1252 Re: The Garden » 2016 Presidential Election Thread » 508 weeks ago
Scraping the barrel now.
Complaint Alleges Trump Adviser Was Holocaust Denier
One of Donald Trump’s foreign policy advisers doubted the extent of the Holocaust and bragged about firing “the Jews” during his tenure as inspector general at the Defense Department, according to allegations surfaced by McClatchyDC on Thursday.
After working for the federal government, Joseph E. Schmitz worked as an executive at Blackwater Worldwide and now works as a private practice attorney in Washington. He was named as an adviser to Trump’s campaign in March.
In a complaint file obtained by McClatchy, senior intelligence official Daniel Meyer wrote of Schmitz, “His summary of his tenure’s achievement reported as ‘…I fired the Jews.’” Meyer, who worked in the Pentagon inspector general’s office, cited another Pentagon official, John Crane, as the source and witness to Schmitz’s alleged remark.
Crane reported Schmitz also made remarks casting doubt on the Holocaust, Meyer wrote in the complaint, which is now before the Merit Systems Protection Board.
“In his final days, he allegedly lectured Mr. Crane on the details of concentration camps and how the ovens were too small to kill 6 million Jews,” Meyer wrote.
In an interview with the site, Schmitz said the allegations are “completely false and defamatory.” He also said while his wife is not practicing, she is “ethnically Jewish.”
“I do not recall ever even hearing of any ‘allegations of anti-Semitism against [me],’ which would be preposterously false and defamatory because, among other reason(s), I am quite proud of the Jewish heritage of my wife of 38 years,” he wrote in an email to McClatchyDC.
Schmitz also accused Crane of being the source for other false allegations against him.
Meyer, who now works as the Obama administration’s top official reviewing how intelligence agencies handle complaints by whistleblowers, said he could not comment on the pending case.
Crane also told McClatchy that he could not comment on his conversation with Schmitz, but said he would speak to the remarks “if, when, I am required to testify under oath in a MSPB hearing.” His attorney, Andrew Bakaj, denied Schmitz’s allegation that Cane made false allegations.
His client “has had no involvement with any of the numerous news accounts challenging the actions or decisions made by Mr. Schmitz when he was Inspector General,” Bakaj said.
The allegations about Schmitz’s rhetoric are also part of a case brought by David Tenenbaum, a Michigan-based Army engineer. In a letter this week to acting Pentagon Inspector General Glenn Fine, Tenenbaum’s lawyer, Mayer Morganroth wrote an “anti-Semitic environment” at the Pentagon “began under a prior Inspector General, Mr. Joseph Schmitz.”
Schmitz left the George W. Bush administration in 2005 to take the Blackwater job, a move that came after Schmitz was reportedly informed he was the focus of a congressional inquiry into whether he blocked two criminal investigations of Bush officials the year before. But at the time, Schmitz insisted to TPM that his resignation was not connected to the allegations.
Schmitz is the son of the late John G. Schmitz, the former ultraconservative congressman from Orange County, California. In 1972, he was drafted by the American Independent Party to run for president against Richard Nixon after Alabama Gov. George Wallace was shot In Maryland. As a sitting congressman, Schmitz refused to comment after he wrote the foreword and endorsed the publication of a book that contained widely-condemned anti-Semitic propaganda and was written by a longtime member of the John Birch society. John G. Schmitz was also a member of the organization, but his membership was revoked for holding views still too far right, even for the very conservative group.
When the senior Schmitz died in 2001, the publication arm of the Institute For Historical Review, which is dedicated to publishing Holocaust denialists, wrote in an obituary that he was “a good friend” of the institute.
Joseph E. Schmitz’s sister is Mary Kay Fualaau, formerly Letourneau, the former teacher who served six years in prison after being convicted of raping her 12-year-old student, whom she later married.
#1253 Re: The Garden » 2016 Presidential Election Thread » 508 weeks ago
I can totally see why people don't like Trump. Not surprising at all. I do wonder though why so many want Hillary. Are they all just anti-Trump?
If Trump can persuade his haters he isn't a dangerous candidate he should win on turnout alone, when most of the opposition stays home or votes third party.
#1254 Re: The Garden » 2016 Presidential Election Thread » 508 weeks ago
Sharyl Attkisson: Trump is Outperforming Romney by 16 Points – WaPo/ABC News Poll
Investigative journalist Sharyl Attkisson has good news for the Trump campaign.
According to analysis of the most recent Washington Post/ABC News poll, Donald Trump is outperforming Mitt Romney by 16 points.
Democrat-heavy sample nets better news for Trump
Among the same Democrat-heavy sample: 26% say they voted for Romney in 2012. 42% say they are leaning toward Trump in 2016.
Another poll; another way to spin.
Earlier this week, I showed how the reporting on a Bloomberg poll could be skewed to make results look more or less positive for a given candidate.
Today, we look at a Washington Post/ABC News poll that also purports to show a widening Clinton lead over Trump – by 8 points: 50% to 42%. This may well be the case. However, looking at the poll sample numbers, there’s some relevant context not reported in news stories.
The poll interviewed 10% more people who identify as Democrats (33%) than Republicans (23%), with the largest group (36%) calling themselves independent. So with 10% more Democrats than Republicans questioned, Clinton leads Trump by 8-points.
Even more interesting, the same Democrat-heavy sample favored Obama by a larger 10-point margin over Romney in 2012: 36% Obama to 26% Romney (with 32% saying they didn’t vote). We know this because the poll asked respondents how they voted in 2012. So today, Trump is outperforming Romney with the exact same Democrat-heavy sample of voters.
#1255 Re: The Garden » 2016 Presidential Election Thread » 508 weeks ago
Clinton lead over Trump shrinks to margin-of-error: Bloomberg poll
Is Hillary Clinton squashing Donald Trump into oblivion in the polls? Or is her lead over him perilously shrinking? One thing we know is: there are countless ways to spin a poll. Consider the case of selective reporting on the most recent Bloomberg national poll.
On Aug. 10, Bloomberg reported “Clinton up 6 on Trump in Two Way Race.” But looking at the actual poll, Trump has moved so close to Clinton, the results are within the margin of error.
Notably, in five months, Clinton’s lead over Trump in the Bloomberg poll has shrunk from 18-points to within the margin of error.
In March of 2016, when likely voters were asked to choose between Clinton and Trump “if the election were held today,” Clinton bested Trump 54%-36% (18 percentage points).
In June, with Libertarian Gary Johnson thrown into the mix, Clinton’s lead over Trump was 5 percentage points smaller: 48% to 35% (13 percentage points).
In the most recent poll, the spread between Clinton and Trump in a two-person race was down to just 3 percentage points, Clinton at 45% and Trump at 42%. That’s within the margin of error. When Libertarian and Green Party candidates are put in the mix, it’s Clinton 42% and Trump 40% –again within the margin of error.
But this notable trend isn’t reflected in the Bloomberg write-up here. Instead, the reporter chose to use the poll numbers that look better for Clinton: ones that added in “leaners.” What are leaners? Respondents who were first asked who they’d vote for, then answered they didn’t plan to vote or didn’t know who they’d vote for, and then were pressed to pick a candidate they were leaning toward, anyway. This is how Bloomberg got to the 6-point spread cited in its headline…double the actual spread of 3%.
The graphic Bloomberg used in its news story appears somewhat misleading in this context. It depicts the 6-point spread as the result of the question “…for whom would you vote?” It doesn’t disclose that the graphic adds in “leaners” who were asked a followup question.
The article then selects one negative factoid to highlight about Trump and use in the subheadline: “The findings suggest damage has been done to one of Trump’s main calling cards, his business expertise, with 61 percent of likely voters saying they’re less impressed with the Republican nominee’s business acumen than when the campaign started.” The 61% answer was in response to a freestanding question Bloomberg chose to ask about Trump, with no equivalent question presented about Clinton. One could envision, for example, the poll could have asked, “Since the start of the campaign, are you more or less impressed with Hillary Clinton’s ability to handle the nation’s secrets and sensitive information?” Odds are, such a question could have produced a number at least as negative as Trump’s on business expertise. But the Clinton question wasn’t asked.
In fact, the Bloomberg poll shows Trump improved in eight categories when it comes to being associated with positive phrases, while Clinton is down in eight categories. Trump improved his ratings in “Would fight hard for the middle class,” “Would rein in the power of Wall Street,” “Has the right temperament to be president,” “Is ready to lead our country on day one in office,” “Could get things done in Washington,” “Would be a good role model for children,” “Is trustworthy,” and “Possesses the skills needed to conduct foreign policy.”
Read the Bloomberg poll questions and methodology
This isn’t to suggest reporting on this poll should have favored Trump; ideally, it should reflect general positives and negatives for each candidate, if they exist, and include relevant trends for context and perspective.
It’s simply another reminder that what you read in the news often comes through a filter.
#1256 Re: The Garden » 2016 Presidential Election Thread » 508 weeks ago
Trump Leads Clinton by 6
A new USDW telephone and online survey finds Republican nominee Donald Trump expanding his lead to six point with forty-four percent (44%) support to Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton’s thirty-eight (38%).
Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson pulled in seven percent (7%), with five percent (5%) backing Green Party candidate Jill Stein.
Another six percent (6%) remain undecided.
The Survey, conducted August 13-17, was a sample of 1,405 likely voters, of which 475 were Democrats (34%), 462 were Republicans (33%), and 468 were Independent or Other (33%).
#1257 Re: The Garden » The Randomness Thread » 508 weeks ago
#1258 Re: The Garden » 2016 Presidential Election Thread » 508 weeks ago
Ending up with people like Hillary as candidate for President is why you have the Trump show right now. Silliness prevails because all credibility is already lost. It truly is fitting for the way society has evolved.
#1259 Re: The Garden » 2016 Presidential Election Thread » 508 weeks ago
Lost? 
