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#1261 Re: The Garden » US Politics Thread » 325 weeks ago
I’m fully on the Bloomberg train. No one else can beat Trump. Picking Clinton would be a mistake, because the Bernie portion of the party definitely stays home if she’s on the ticket. Harris would be a smart VP choice.
#1262 Re: The Garden » US Politics Thread » 325 weeks ago
She can’t be his VP, she’s not 35.
#1263 Re: The Garden » US Politics Thread » 326 weeks ago
Randall Flagg wrote:I’d assume the election of people advocating the end of fossil fuels would cause a sudden dip moreso than anything on the 5 year horizon.
lol "fossil suels" for the future.
Search: TSLA
I’m not saying they’re the future. They’re the present. I want to go full nuclear, as wind and solar are a joke. Someone who wants to destroy the current energy sector overnight is going to wreck the economy. This isn’t rocket science.
In other news, I don’t know what Bloomberg is apologizing for stop and frisk. Murders in nyc were around 2k a year before Giuliani implemented it. Bloomberg continued it and got nyc down to 300 a year. It clearly worked, and all the liberal outlets trying to debunk his leaked comments talking about national statistics show their hand when they refuse to talk about NYC. Go ahead. Look up murder demographics in NYC. I guess Black Lives only matter if the a white cop is the culprit. The other 99.9% don’t matter.
https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/nypd/downlo … report.pdf
What do you know, 95% of murder suspects were black or hispanic in 2019 in NYC.
#1264 Re: The Garden » US Politics Thread » 326 weeks ago
If I were running against Trump I'd go at him with, yeah, the economy is good, and after three years he deserves credit... But we're headed for a wall. Paul Ryan spent his career trying to destroy entitlements but couldn't do it. He finally did it with the tax cut. Trump has no answer for when we hit the wall and will gut SS and Medicare. They stimulated a healthy economy with tax cuts they can't pay for. We're headed for a wall.
People have been predicting the wall annually and it hasn’t happened yet. I’m no economist, so my opinion means dick. Eventually the economy will go down, but SS and medicare aren’t going to collapse under Trump’s term(s). I’d assume the election of people advocating the end of fossil fuels would cause a sudden dip moreso than anything on the 5 year horizon.
#1265 Re: The Garden » US Politics Thread » 326 weeks ago
Randall Flagg wrote:Middle America isn't going to vote for someone who wants to change the system, especially for non-Americans at the expense of Americans.
In fairness I dont think many of us were huge Bernie or AOC supporters ill admit I was in for Warren, her mistake however ended up being going far left. Had she stayed content with Obamacare just enhancing it a bit she'd be fine. The whole universal/free is what turns ppl off.
You don't have to be. Their rhetoric has poisoned the well as much as Trump has. Klobuchar doesn't have the footprint to compete, and she'll be competing directly against Bloomberg on Super Tuesday. Warren's ego is all that is keeping her in. Maybe Buttigieg can stay relevant, but he's going to be competing against Bloomberg and Biden in 2.5 weeks, splitting the moderate vote 4 ways. That leaves Sanders as the front runner within the party.
Obamacare didn't work. It was badly broken from its start, and Obama never enforced the mandate - something he lacked the authority to do and is now biting the entire act in the ass as it goes before SCOTUS. I'm not saying pre-existing conditions is a losing issue, it's clearly not. But Trump is telling his base he's going to protect those, and it hasn't been taken away yet.
At the end of the day, 6/10 Americans feel they're better off under Trump than they were Obama. Impeachment failed. It had the opposite effect. It destroyed Biden, made Trump stronger, and made the Democrats look petty. Just look at how Pelosi embarrassed herself at the SOTU. 10 years ago Democrats censured Wilson because he yelled "you lie!" during Obama's healthcare speech before Congress. Then they chant during the speech and Pelosi tears up the speech. She claimed it was spur of the moment, but the moron was on national TV putting small tears on the speech throughout the whole thing, so she could tear it up without effort at the end. Then they go on national TV and demand that Facebook and Twitter delete ads showing her do just that.
You're rightfully going to point at the million shitty things Trump has done, but all of it means dick when the other side is doing the same thing. Take the outrage over DoJ reducing Stone's recommended sentence. Ignore that the DoJ sent a SWAT team to arrest Stone at 6 am and probably tipped off CNN to it all. Ignore that the recommended sentence was way beyond norms. Let's not pretend that Trump had no involvement. But guess what, who met who in a hangar in 2016? Did these people demand Lynch resign? No, they didn't. So when the average Joe looks at it, what can they say besides "par for the course".
I know "anyone but Trump" is the Democratic mantra, but people in middle America don't share that view. If you want them to risk fucking up their jobs, healthcare, retirement and the culture of America, you need a really compelling reason. Bernie offers that to those interested. He's talking about real change. But anyone that has a chance at standing next to Trump in September is going to offer "slightly better" versions of hypothetical change they hope they can deliver on, and will be promising to remove guns, allow more illegals to stay, and try to make middle america feel guilty that they're better off than poor people in inner cities or the 3rd world.
Anyone who likes Trump as a person, I take issue with. But if you step back and look at what really matters to you, in your everyday life, what candidate's policy and proven record is most attractive to middle America? 6/10 think Trump offers that. He's not going to be any more racist, poor spoken, mean, stupid, etc. in 2020 than he was perceived in 2016. It's a huge ask, and "I don't like Trump" isn't enough in my opinion to get people to break from that when you look at the some of the more outrageous policy proposals even "moderates" have.
I know this is long winded, but this thread has been a ghost town for months. Democrats campaigned from 2004 onward as being anti-war.
Obama expanded military operations in Afghanistan, and had our military in all kinds of new conflicts in the Middle East. Trump ended ISIS, killed the head Iranian general responsible for thousands of US injuries, and withdrew from most of our armed conflicts. The Iran deal was never popular. Obama's own party opposed him on this, with Schumer being the loudest voice against it. Illegal immigration is incredibly unpopular - it's a loser for Democrats. And Trump delivered big. Illegal crossings are at a modern low, the asylum claims have been exposed for the fraud and abuse they were used as, as shown by Mexico saying 90% of people held there have volunteered to return home rather than wait for a date in US Court. No he didn't build the wall and have Mexico pay for it, but Obama didn't deliver on his "If you like your healthcare, you can keep it", and he was re-elected.
So the Democrats have Climate Change, Healthcare and Guns to run on. Bloomberg covers all of those and has the capital to run a national campaign. But wait until all the women who have accused him of improper conduct break their NDAs for Ronan Farrow, and watch the far left revolt and middle america mutter "par for the course."
I could totally be wrong, and there's a lot of time left. Anything can happen. And god only knows what moronic thing Trump will do next. But this is just about the worst case Democrats could have for November. Maybe they'll all unite around one of the 4 moderates in 3 weeks, but Sanders didn't drop out in 2016 until May or June. I don't know why he wouldn't do that again. But Democrats need to seriously consider their congressional strategy, and try to have something separate from just relying on the front runner. Otherwise it could be 2004 all over again. And I don't know if this country could survive GOP control of government for at least 2 years.
#1266 Re: The Garden » US Politics Thread » 326 weeks ago
Middle America isn't going to vote for someone who wants to change the system, especially for non-Americans at the expense of Americans.
#1267 Re: The Garden » US Politics Thread » 326 weeks ago
https://www.yahoo.com/news/more-6-10-am … 36030.html
A recent Gallup poll has some encouraging news for President Donald Trump as his battle for reelection heats up: more than six in 10 Americans say they are better off than they were three years ago when he took office, and about the same number credit him for the improvement.
No incumbent president in the past three decades has enjoyed such a high percentage of people feeling better about their situations. In 2012, when former President Barack Obama was in the White House, 45% of Americans told Gallup they were better off than they were three years ago. In 2004, 1996 and 1992 the number was 50%.
In the survey, 61% said they were better off, 36% said they were not and 3% said they were about the same.
And a strong majority of Americans (62%) said Trump should get credit for improving the economy. Thirty-seven percent said he deserves a "great deal" of credit and 25% said he deserves a "fair amount." Nineteen percent said he should not take much credit and 18% said he deserved none at all.
#1268 Re: The Garden » US Politics Thread » 326 weeks ago
Trump is pivoting to Health Care. Democrats refused to even propose single payer in 2009. He's going to be running on a better version of the ACA that allows for reasonable plans, no details given. Ultimately, it could lead to a compromise with the House in 2021 that nixes the mandate, but expands coverage for lower income through medicaid. That's the only politically solvent situation. Toss in Ivanka's maternity leave bill for good will, and you have a tenable bill that can get through both houses.
The Democrats can't really wheel anyone out to say "this person was fucked by Trump" on healthcare. It's all hypothetical. No one wants to negotiate, so Democrats are pleading worse case scenario to voters, should no one act and SCOTUS rule a very specific way. So when you balance what Trump is saying, versus Bernie, it becomes a hard pill to swallow. Sure, the moderates are more appealing on Health Care to the masses, but what are they going to say that is substantially different than what Trump wants? I'm genuinely asking.
The only realistic solution to SS is to increase taxes. But first you'd need legislation to get through both houses. It's unlikely the Democrats capture the Senate, about as likely as the Republicans getting the House. So you have to be realistic on what can get through, even if you end up with a total sweep, cause of the filibuster. And I don't know how you get a solvent bill to fund SS through taxation.
We seem not to give a fuck about the national debt anymore. As a nobody, I feel no impact or change due to the national debt. Neither party seems to give a fuck. I fully support a Warren style wealth tax, but I don't know how that gets through congress, let alone the courts. Some issues aren't solvable until it becomes a crisis.
#1269 Re: The Garden » US Politics Thread » 326 weeks ago
I don't see how the Democrats win in November. It's a catch 22 for them. With Biden out, Sanders is the front runner. He has a legion of devout followers who perform all kinds of mental gymnastics to make his platform believable; not that different than Trump. In fact, there are a lot of similarities between them.
Sanders and the far left already believe Hillary fucked Sanders in 2016. They're wrong, but there's no arguing Clinton's and the DNC's behavior bordered on corrupt. If Sanders loses the nomination, in part because the DNC changed the rules to allow Bloomberg to enter, the far left wing is going to revolt and not vote. They're going to see 2 "Racist" Billionaires on stage, and stay home. Trump wins.
I just don't see Klobuchar or Pete getting the nomination at this point, and even if they do, the far left is so rabid that it'll harm turnout. Neither of them are going to excite Latinos or Blacks, whom the DNC need to come out in droves if they want to win swing states. There's just not a candidate the party can unite behind. Sanders is too radical for most, and wants to rock the Democratic establishment.
Maybe Buttigieg or Klobuchar can do really well in the general, and tone down some of their losing issues enough that middle America will overlook their positive situation in response to social issues. It's a big ask, with such a good economy. Obama had the 2008 collapse and an incredibly unpopular war to run on. Trump's boorishness is a turn off to most, but when you actually start talking policy, more Americans agree than disagree. The far left's position is to decriminalize illegal border crossings, and all 4 of the remaining "Moderates" refuse to take that position. SCOTUS is probably going to rule DACA unconstitutional, so you'll need someone that can provide a realistic immigration solution. Democrats will use that as a campaign push for November meaning no legislation will occur, so a moderate position from the front runner won't align with the propaganda being pumped out in Congressional districts, enraging the fanatics again. Take your pick of social issue, it all ends the same way.
The pundits are talking brokered convention, but that is just more chaos in Trump's favor. I see it as Bernie vs Trump, and 2018 showed us that a Sanders and Trump backed candidate in Florida and Ohio goes to Trump. Will PA, MI and WI go Sanders when his "Green New Deal" kills all their jobs and takes away their private insurance? I don't think so.
#1270 Re: Guns N' Roses » Will new music be released in 2020? » 327 weeks ago
I’ll say this, their limited dates centered on primarily top 10 population cities in continental areas is smart. They barely hit 50% in a lot of US markets with 70k person stadiums. This consolidates sales in venues likely to sell close to capacity.
If a late 2020 release is planned, they could milk the stadium tour market dry, before launching a full bore arena tour in early 2021 if they plan to generate long term cash touring.
