Trump keeps gaining, now 1% off, significant spike in black support (14,1%).

http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-preside … dashboard/

A Simple Explanation Why Trump Will Win

While watching Phelps win his 23rd gold medal I realized that wherever he went he was treated with great deference. It was just understood that Phelps as the dominate athlete was the leader of the Olympic team.

That’s the way people act in society. People want and need strong leadership.

What will count to the voters in the presidential race is who they think can be trusted with their future. This perception of the voter of who will best lead is going to be their ultimate voting reality.

As the first leg of the presidential race unfolds, it seems Mrs. Clinton is swimming upstream against a swift current. Even with the entire media industry and an untold number of surrogates standing in for Mrs. Clinton, every day brings new revelations of her lying, cheating, bribery and the faint possibility of a criminal indictment.

It weighs her campaign down like lead weights.

Mr. Trump is swimming through choppy waters to be sure. But he seems to power through and gets stronger and more energetic as the race goes on. He radiates an aura of power and charisma which infuriates his detractors and delights his supporters.

Much as the Mrs. Clinton supporters and the anti-Trump crowd would like to call the race over and unilaterally declare that Mrs. Clinton is the winner, the race for the presidency is just getting started.

September 26 will be the first time Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Trump will compete mano-a-mano if you will pardon the expression. I’m planning on having a pizza/sushi party at my house.

What will happen when they are finally just one on one with no place to hide?

Past performance is no guarantee of future results, but the Democratic and Republican primary races shows us how Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Trump may perform.

Mrs. Clinton only won the Democrat Party primaries against an aged underfunded socialist/communist by literally rigging the election. If the primary were straight up, she would most likely would have lost. What is not speculation is that 21% fewer Democrats turned out to participate in the primaries this time around.

Trump dominated the Republican primaries where the major media was unmistakably biased against him as were the ruling Republican Political Establishment figures.

In the Republican primary, 62% more voters turned out than any previous Republican primary contest. Trump himself got the largest number of primary votes ever in the history of the Republican Party.

What about the issues and past accomplishments?

The political issues of the 1960s so engrained in Mrs. Clinton are in sharp contrast to the new voter’s desire for financial security, opportunity, and having a strong military and police for protection from the dangers of radical Islamic terrorists. A highly politically correct generation is being horrified by the proliferation of Black Lives Matter generated riots. The promise of getting union controlled factory jobs is not overly enticing.

Mrs. Clinton’s campaign is doing its best to run away from her actual record as a Senator, Secretary of State, and head of the Clinton Foundation. She has made it her life’s work to sell influence and government favors at the expense of the taxpayers. They certainly want to avoid reminding potential voters that Mrs. Clinton’s lies, cheats, and invariably has disastrous judgment.

Mr. Trump’s life is an open book. It’s all been played out publicly for his entire career. He is running on his actual record of performance. In a highly competitive global world, his name goes on everything he does. People eagerly pay extra to buy a Trump condo or stay in a Trump hotel. He grew up in the building trades and understand that a construction business is only as successful as the talent of its people.

Mr. Trump speaks in the language of working people — not the Washington, D.C. or elitist Orwellian double-speak. Working people relate to what Mr. Trump is saying not much differently than they would if Joe the Plumber was a billionaire and running for high office.

On September 26th, Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Trump will be one-on-one with no place to hide.
What really matters in this debate (and most decisions in life) is optics not policy. People do not systematically process information, and decisions are made emotionally. In the animal kingdom the pack always instinctively choses its alpha dog to lead.

Mrs. Clinton’s shrill voice is not pleasant to which to listen. She comes across as a mix between a mid-level policy wonk and snake-oil salesperson. Bernie Sanders appeared to be genuine and thereby dominated the primary debate almost at will.

Outside the debates Mrs. Clinton lets surrogates act in her place. Unless she has a complete make-over, she will appear on stage against Mr. Trump as a tired old 5’2’’stiff façade of an over-rehearsed politician promoting special interest agenda’s.

Trump is a 6’4’ vigorous male whose voice and tone are most engaging when speaking carefully. When he walks onto a stage it is as if he owns the whole studio. He dominated every primary debate against all the other well-funded and experienced Republican contenders. And he controls the news today. His campaign, like everything else he has done in life, is all Trump.

Why do I think Mr. Trump will win the debates and ultimately the presidential election?

My explantion is simple.

In this election cycle, Mr. Trump is the Alpha Dog of the pack.

http://www.newsmax.com/Finance/Kleinfel … id/743543/

Never in my life have I seen such a media campaign against someone. Typing Trump and news in google and it's pages upon pages, all negative.

Someone's desperate, and I don't think it's because he will "lose easily".

I liked Trump the minute I saw how much the establishment hated him, but I had to watch one of his speeches to find out that his policies are actually quite good. If he can do half of what he says it will be great for America.

Donald Trump’s astonishing tactics make history irrelevant

One of the great spectacles of this election season has been the variety and intensity of Trump-hating. Few can beat Vanity Fair’s early contribution of words and images titled Donald Trump’s Short Fingers: A Historical Analysis. But serious-minded editorialists have done their best, dripping the sort of personal invective you rarely hear from anyone but criminal barristers and theatre critics. Even the cable comedians, who can tap a rich insult vocabulary, have had to dig in to match their rage to the Republican candidate’s bluster.

It has taken a while, but the polls show voters are taking notice. Hillary Clinton is pulling away at one end, and Gary Johnson, the Libertarian candidate, is nudging 10 per cent at the other. Mr Trump is sagging in the middle.

History shows that when a candidate is as far back as the Republican is at this point in the race, there is no coming back. But Mr Trump has rendered all precedents irrelevant. And if I were Mrs Clinton’s campaign team, I would hold off opening the celebratory champagne for a few weeks yet.

A major concern should be two names on the recently released list of Mr Trump’s economic advisers: John Paulson and Steven Mnuchin. Mr Paulson is the better known of the two men, a hedge fund manager who made an estimated $3bn-$4bn personally by betting against the US housing market in 2007. Mr Mnuchin cut his teeth at Goldman Sachs in New York before moving to Los Angeles to invest in films such as Avatar and X-Men, later picking up IndyMac Bank, a failed home lender, from the ashes of the financial crisis. He then fixed it up and sold it for a big profit as OneWest Bank.

Both men have a keen eye for value, and are ready to buy when everyone else wants to sell. They profit from extreme volatility and are not afraid of a big short. Mrs Clinton, if she were somehow to lose, would be the biggest political short of all time. She has plenty of financial titans backing her, such as Warren Buffett and George Soros. But to see Mr Paulson, architect of the most successful trade in recent Wall Street history, lining up against her can’t feel good.

Which begs the question: what path to victory do they see for Mr Trump that the rest of us don’t?

If one were to credit Mr Trump’s politics with an underlying logic — and the credit would have to be extra high-yield — it is that he is the only one listening when Americans say they are sick of the same old political routines.

Every politician in every presidential race promises to fix Washington and fight for the people against the establishment. But never has there been a wrecking ball like Mr Trump. He has shown himself to be racist, sexist, callous and crude, yet the 40 per cent or so of Americans who support him still consider him the only honest man in politics. His candidacy feeds the fantasy of those who would decimate government.

His plan to lower corporate and personal income taxes and cut regulations is in the mainstream of Republican thinking, a traditional business charter.

The promise to rewrite America’s trade agreements to boost domestic manufacturing is more radical and aimed at winning votes in the Rust Belt. But it is of little practical concern to investors, who can adjust to any economic reality with a few keystrokes.

For those who hate Mr Trump, these past few weeks since the Republican Convention have only confirmed the horror. Here is a man who belittles the Muslim parents of an American soldier who died in combat, and compares his “sacrifice” building hotels and casinos to theirs; who sends what to many people sounds like a dog whistle to gun rights supporters about assassinating his opponent. But if you were inclined to believe in Mr Trump, you might conclude that these episodes had shown how much room he still has to manoeuvre. A candidate willing to say or do anything is hard to box in and will not fight by the usual rules.

In the category of known unknowns, we have the rumoured Trump file on the Clintons. It might seem impossible that after so many years and so much scrutiny, there are still beans to spill. Yet these are the Clintons, and the Republican party candidate is not likely to let scruple get in the way of a good scandal.

This shadow only darkened with the recent talk of Russians hacking the Democratic National Committee, and Mr Trump’s suggestion that they hack Mrs Clinton’s state department emails. If there is anything embarrassing or humiliating left to discover about the Clintons, odds are he will find it and advertise it.

Lots of people have been speculating that Mr Trump doesn’t want to be president. That it sounds too much like hard work. That all he is doing in running for office is to prepare the way for Trump TV, his own network with millions of paying ­subscribers.

But, win or lose, he has already yanked America’s political centre to the right: a great service to those who believe in him. Until the votes are counted, Democrats should not take their eye off a candidate willing to churn the political waters so violently and revel in the volatility that brings.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1bbb8834-607e … b1c93.html

Sorry, I tried finding it. Only got up Twitter stuff.

You underestimate me. If you replace Stein and Johnson with Deez he is up by 9.