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#1301 Re: The Garden » 2016 Presidential Election Thread » 509 weeks ago
Why The Media Disinformation Campaign Against Donald Trump Will Fail
2nd Amendment. Babies. Purple hearts. The NFL. Breastfeeding. Immigration law. EB-5. H1-B. Iranian press footage. Endorsements. Deli meat. As someone who is involved in the Presidential election, I couldn’t be more confused as to the types of comments I’ve received in the past week. Here are a few of the best:
“Is it true Donald is dropping out?”
“Which side of the feud are you on, Lewandowski or Manafort?”
“Donald needs to control his erratic behavior.”
“Why won’t Donald listen to anyone on the campaign?”
To say I didn’t know how to answer would be understatement in the least. At one point on a concall, I muted and turned to an associate and we each had to shrug our shoulders and carry on, explaining what sarcasm is—all in attempts to mollify certain members of the media who have the stunning ability to find fault with every single thing Donald did this week. If he crosses his arms and looks to the side, then “Aha! He’s Mussolini!” If he furrows his brow at a reporter, then “Aha! He’s Rudolph Hess!”
To say the media onslaught is brought on by a pack of blithering idiots would be an insult to blithering idiots. The simple fact of the matter is that this is still a very close race and the media is falling over themselves to try and trip up Donald. The same tactics were employed in the primary by 17 very qualified opponents, and all I really need to say is—where are they today?
It is interesting that the media is now taking an “All of the above” approach to their endless attacks, and this is rather noteworthy. Gone are the blanket recitations of “Trump is a racist” or “Trump is a sexist.” Instead, the media is employing a tactic the Marines refer to as “spray and pray.” They don’t have any specific targets, but they know they are cornered, so they are wildly swinging about with their finger down on the full auto trigger. Hillary herself seems like an inexperienced boxer flailing about looking for an early K.O. since she knows she will not last the 15 rounds.
The further rumors of the dropout of the race or dissension within the campaign are, in a word, slapstick. The mood within Team Trump is full-steam ahead, with any sign of a feud or rift within our ranks as pure media artifice. Sure, people have differences of opinion on tactics for a specific issue, or timing and roll-out of a specific announcement or endorsement, but nothing that would be any different from a group of friends trying to decide what kind of pizza to get or what movie to see on the weekend (though none of us would ever choose this new Ghostfrumpers monstrosity).
The team remains laser-beam focused on long-term strategy and while the media of course refuses to report on it, many of the statements Donald are making now are laying the groundwork for things to come later in the Fall. Little nuggets of foreshadowing, we call them.
Some of the team has prior military service, and its interesting the parallels they draw between what the media is doing to Donald and a military disinformation campaign. Essentially, good disinformation plants seeds of doubt in the mind of your opponent, demoralizing them, and causing dissension in their ranks. On the flipside, the same disinformation should serve to energize and enliven your own side. These are the same tactics the US military has used in conflicts from Germany to Vietnam to Afghanistan. Demoralize, Disrupt, Discredit. Without firing a shot, your enemy can become so fractured and anxious that internally, they have already defeated themselves.
The clearest example of this is the (widely ridiculed) Reuters and CNN polls which are practically sampling Democrats over Republicans at a 2:1 ratio. Such a high ratio is not reflective in any reasonable nationwide accounting of party registration, but hey, who cares? Let’s just run it anyway since it makes for endless grumbling and gnashing of teeth!
The biggest single factor working against this narrative is social media. In 2016, 78% of Americans have at least one social media account. Americans spend on average 3 hours a day on social media. Contrasted with that is what more and more people are referring to as The Death of Television. Mobile viewing, cord cutting, online video, and yes even torrents, are all cutting deeply into the traditional TV market. The majority of millennials (who are voting for the first time in 2016) do not own at TV. Overall, 18 to 34-year-olds spend nearly as much time using digital devices (smartphones, tablets and computers) as they do watching TV.
All of this has massive implications for the Hillary Clinton campaign. She is spending millions on TV ads that simply do not move the needle. Donald is not. Her Twitter posts are ridiculed and her messaging is amateur. Her main slogan has our candidate’s name in it and not hers. Repetition is the key to retention, that’s Marketing 101. Even more importantly, the media narratives do not survive on social media as well as they do for TV-only watchers.
Instead, CNN, NY Times, WaPo, etc are merely only one of many voices twittering about, and fact-checking is easier to do than ever. Hillary and her media dogs spend millions on messaging, while all Donald has to do is send a tweet and his narrative is immediately absorbed. Furthermore, in terms of numbers, she has a gang of bullies on social media, while we have amassed an army. Take a look at Reddit sometime if you don’t believe me.
The media is run by extremely clever people who know what they are doing. Their onslaught against Donald will almost certainly have some scratching their heads about what is going on with the campaign, and why Donald seems, for once, to be on the defensive.
All I will say to that is, there is a plan. There is a strategy. There is a method at work here. When the enemy has you surrounded—that only means there’s no way for them to escape. We are right where we want to be in August.
#1302 Re: The Garden » 2016 Presidential Election Thread » 509 weeks ago
The Greatest Cognitive Dissonance Trap of All Time
by Scott Adams
Here’s the set-up:
1. The mainstream media knows they are smarter than Donald Trump. They see evidence of this truth all the time, although much of that evidence is confirmation bias.
Then…
2. Trump does something smart – accusing Obama and Clinton of being “founders” of ISIS. This is a clever way to get the world to debate Clinton and Obama’s ineffectiveness during a time when ISIS expanded. In other words, it is brilliant media manipulation, and it worked.
3. CNN and other Clinton supporters interpret Trump’s statement about ISIS as absurd and uninformed because they can’t imagine a scenario in which Trump does something brilliant. Trump being brilliant isn’t one of the options, as far as they know.
The reality of Trump’s clever persuasion is crystal-clear to anyone who thinks Trump is smart. Trump was clearly joking about the “founder” part to get people squawking, and it worked. Total success. Brilliant technique.
Now the media has a big problem. They can’t admit that they were extraordinarily dumb in this situation and Trump was brilliant. That reality is invisible to them because it doesn’t fit their worldview.
So…cognitive dissonance happens.
This is a textbook set-up for cognitive dissonance. The facts we observe (Trump is smart, the media is gullible) is opposite of the media’s worldview in which they are smart and Trump is uninformed. So what do they do?
They act as if Trump is the dumb one in this situation. Because that fits their worldview.
And…they…fact-check his claim.
Meanwhile, the unhypnotized laugh themselves into a stupor watching this spectacle of cognitive dissonance. Humor aside, it is a marvelous and incredible thing to behold.
One of my smartest friends just emailed me to say he thinks Trump really believes that Obama and Clinton “founded” ISIS. My friend has a very high IQ and he’s well-informed. But cognitive dissonance isn’t influenced by intelligence. He believes whatever fits his worldview. Just like the rest of us.
The fun part is that we can see cognitive dissonance when it happens to others – such as with my friend, and CNN – but we can’t see it when it happens to us. So don’t get too smug about this. You’re probably next.
I think this story will end up in psychology textbooks. You rarely see such a clean example of cognitive dissonance in public.
Oh, and Trump hates babies, and he also wants a 2nd amendment supporter to assassinate his opponent. As long as the media is being dumbasses, they might as well fact-check that stuff too.
I have never been so entertained.
#1303 Re: Guns N' Roses » Tim Palmer's two days on CD » 509 weeks ago
Me thinks Axl might have been willing to accommodate if from the beginning he had said "sorry, don't want to work nights with my wife pregnant". Axl's response shows how much he cared about him as a producer, he's absolutely fuming behind those words. That sense of betrayal that sets him off more than anything.
We got a good story out of it though. Vintage Axl.
#1304 Re: The Garden » 2016 Presidential Election Thread » 509 weeks ago
The Donald Trump Strategy
I think I’ve got it: The explanation as to what Trump is doing, and why it might make a little bit of sense. The answer is in the communications strategy. He keeps his name in the news by saying outrageous things.
Everyone reacts- and the media focuses on the reaction. Trump reacts; the focus shifts to the reaction to the reaction to the original comments (following so far?). Sometimes he makes it worse, sometimes better. The point is the focus is throughout the process is on him. And while it’s on him nobody pays attention to Hillary Clinton’s platform. Nobody pays attention to Trump’s platform. And while everyone ignores the issues, time ticks by, November 8, growing ever closer.
As a strategy it’s brilliant. It keeps Trump at the centre of the election at all times. Voters hear his name more, and it sticks. Name recognition is a huge part of winning an election. And it doesn’t matter what the candidate says. He could admit to taking part in satanic rituals, and kicking puppies. As long as his name stays at the centre of the news cycle then it’s successful.
It’s also a strategy that can be easily taken too far. His comments at a rally yesterday regarding the second amendment for example. “Hillary wants to abolish- essentially abolish the second amendment. If she gets to pick, if she gets to pick her judges folks, there’s nothing you can do. Although second amendment people, maybe there is; I don’t know,” he said.
The second amendment deals with the right to bear arms- he speaks of Clinton’s ideas for gun control. There are different interpretations of his comments. Some insist it’s an ill-timed, badly considered joke. Others say it’s more sinister suggesting the idea/notion of killing Hillary Clinton. Regardless, you don’t hint/suggest/ leave open to interpretation the concept of murdering a political opponent, especially when your supporters include people crazy enough to do it.
The counter strategy would be ignore him. If he speaks loudly into a vacuum, and nobody hears, then eventually he might stop. But that won’t work because ignoring him means ignoring the news. He’s the candidate for the highest office in the land. Agree with him or not, whatever he says/ does is news.
The answer might be a shift in focus. Start asking questions about policy. Report, but refuse to take the bait on the other stuff. Expose weaknesses in both platforms. Explore the different versions of America. Let the sensational stuff stand on its own.
#1305 Re: The Garden » 2016 Presidential Election Thread » 509 weeks ago
It's over. When a candidate is already speaking in such terms, they're not even trying to win but instead wanting to just hurry up and lose.
Donald Trump told CNBC on Thursday he will either win with his frank and uncensored style of campaigning or
enjoy a "very, very nice long vacation."Republicans have long hoped Trump will pivot on his behavior, but in the "Squawk Box" interview, he said:
"I'm a truth teller. All I do is tell the truth. And if at the end of 90 days, I've fallen short because I'm somewhat
politically correct even though I'm supposed to be the smart one and even though I'm supposed to have a lot of
good ideas, it's OK. I go back to a very good way of life."http://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/11/gop-pres … trump.html
Today's gaffe was claiming Obama is the founder of ISIS.
What's tomorrow's gaffe? Claiming Hillary was the second gunman on the grassy knoll?'
He's intentionally tanking the election.
Over? He's got his main enemy CNN running headlines saying Obama founded Isis!
As the old saying goes, keep the lie big, keep repeating it and eventually people will believe it. And they're repeating him alright.
Check out his Virginia speech from a few days ago, to the coal miners. This guy can be Presidential if he wants it. I see no evidence he's throwing this. He's doing the same thing he's been doing since day one.
This is basically his strategy:
Never allow the public to cool off; never admit a fault or wrong; never concede that there may be some good in your enemy; never leave room for alternatives; never accept blame; concentrate on one enemy at a time and blame him for everything that goes wrong; people will believe a big lie sooner than a little one; and if you repeat it frequently enough people will sooner or later believe it.
#1306 Re: The Garden » 2016 Presidential Election Thread » 509 weeks ago
Screw the polls Trump says!
Trump shrugs off polls, vows he'll win Pennsylvania 'easily'
Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump vowed Wednesday that his campaign would win Pennsylvania "easily", despite a recent poll showing him trailing Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton by double digits.
"I think we're going to do very well in Pennsylvania," Trump told Fox News' "On the Record with Greta van Susteren." The real estate mogul claimed his popularity with working class voters, including coal miners and steelworkers, would put him over the top in the Keystone State.
A recent Quinnipiac University poll of likely voters showed Clinton getting 52 percent of the vote in Pennsylvania to 42 percent for Trump. When Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein were included in the poll, Clinton still had the edge over Trump 48 percent to 39 percent.
In addition, the Fox News electoral scorecard put Pennsylvania in the "Lean Democrat" column.
With 20 electoral votes at stake, Pennsylvania is considered vital to Trump's chances of taking the White House. However, he will have to overcome a strong historical trend: The state has not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since George H.W. Bush in 1988.
Also Wednesday Trump again defended his remarks about Hillary Clinton and the Second Amendment, which some took as an incitement to violence against the former Secretary of State.
’s what I was referring to and everybody knows it."
Referring to Clinton, Trump said, "She's very much against guns and I'm a very pro-Second Amendment person. People want the Second Amendment protected and they have a lot of power in doing it."
#1307 Re: The Garden » 2016 Presidential Election Thread » 509 weeks ago
polluxlm wrote:In the 6 latest swing state polls Trump was trailing by 4. Hardly a decided election. Though it seems many like to say so based on those exact national polls. Turns out they might not be as crushing for Trump as everybody thinks either, going by the poll above.
Where are you reading this? As I said, with these numbers (below) Ohio and Florida are irrelevant. But I guarantee you she's bound to get one of those as well.
Wisconsin Clinton +5.6
Virginia Clinton +7
Pennsylvania Clinton +9.2
Colorado Clinton +9.5
Michigan Clinton +6.6
#1308 Re: The Garden » 2016 Presidential Election Thread » 509 weeks ago
In the 6 latest swing state polls Trump was trailing by 4. Hardly a decided election. Though it seems many like to say so based on those exact national polls. Turns out they might not be as crushing for Trump as everybody thinks either, going by the poll above.
#1309 Re: The Garden » 2016 Presidential Election Thread » 509 weeks ago
Where the presidential race stands today
The USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times "Daybreak" poll tracks about 3,000 eligible voters until election day, asking on a regular basis about their support for Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump or other candidates as well as their likelihood of actually casting a ballot.
We update the data each day based on the weighted average of poll responses over the previous week. That means results have less volatility than some other polls, but also means the poll lags somewhat in responding to major events in the campaign.
Who would you vote for?
We ask voters what the chance is that they will vote for Trump, Clinton or someone else, using a 0-100 scale. The overall level of support for each candidate reflects the weighted average of those responses.
Clinton 44,7%
Trump 44%
#1310 Re: The Garden » 2016 Presidential Election Thread » 509 weeks ago
Polls Show Donald Trump Staying Close to Hillary Clinton in 3 Swing States
Hillary Clinton may be surging in national polls, but in the key swing states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, Donald J. Trump remains in striking distance.
According to a group of surveys of likely voters released on Tuesday by Quinnipiac University, Mrs. Clinton holds a one percentage point lead in Florida, a four-point lead in Ohio and a 10-point lead in Pennsylvania over Mr. Trump. The polls, which had a margin of error of plus-or-minus three percentage points, are slightly closer when Gary Johnson and Jill Stein, the Libertarian and Green Party nominees, are included.
Since 1960, no presidential candidate has won the White House without winning two of the three states. The poll results offer Mr. Trump, the Republican nominee, a ray of hope after more than a week of turmoil in his campaign.
Although Mrs. Clinton still holds an advantage in the states, it is not her popularity with voters that is keeping her afloat. It is even deeper concern about Mr. Trump, the polls suggest.
“It is not that her voters are in love with Secretary Clinton — they just dislike her less than they disdain Trump,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac poll.
In all three states, Mr. Trump has an edge among men and among white voters, while Mrs. Clinton holds wide leads with women and nonwhite voters. Independent voters are evenly divided in Florida and Pennsylvania, but Mr. Trump has an edge with them in Ohio.
Polls have shown Mr. Trump struggling in Florida because its large Hispanic population dislikes his hard-line immigration policies. There have also been signs that he is underperforming in Ohio because of his clashes with the state’s popular Republican governor, John Kasich.
Mr. Trump’s greatest weakness at the moment lies in Pennsylvania, where he and Mrs. Clinton are now running nearly evenly among men and white voters. During the Democratic convention, Mr. Trump paid a visit to Scranton in hopes of improving his prospects in the state.
A July poll of the three states from Quinnipiac showed the candidates deadlocked. But that round of polling surveyed registered voters rather than people who are likely to cast ballots.
A separate set of polls from NBC/WSJ/Marist found that Mrs. Clinton holds a 5-point lead in Ohio and an 11-point lead in Pennsylvania. In Iowa, where Mr. Trump campaigned last week, Mrs. Clinton leads by 4 points.
As with the other polls, voters are not enamored with either candidate. Mrs. Clinton is viewed unfavorably by 58 percent of voters in the three states and 64 percent view Mr. Trump unfavorably.
