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#1361 Re: The Garden » US Politics Thread » 522 weeks ago

I think Hillary is going to win tomorrow and here is why:

Obama’s job approval is currently around 55%. Compare that to other outgoing presidents-it’s pretty damn good. That’s quite a feat for the “worst president ever” I might add. On the flip side, the Republican Congress is at 11%.

The economy. Despite the doom and gloom pumped by the GOP, economic numbers are good. Everyday investors (Roth/401ks) have done great during this administration, and people like stability. Trump is hardly synonymous with the word “stable.” That’s why we’ve seen Wall Street panic and dump securities when Trump’s numbers went up last week.

Latinos. They are breaking records for turnout in Nevada and Florida in early voting. They are also a demographic that isn’t followed as closely and apparently difficult to poll. For this reason alone, I’m putting my money on both those states to go Blue (even though RCP has them essentially within the MOE.)

Women voters. For obvious reasons, many women do not like Trump. I’d also add into this category, Republican women who vote for Hillary without telling their husbands.

Republican defectors and Republicans who stay at home. No major newspaper has endorsed Trump. Various newspapers who always endorsed a Republican candidate, would not recommend Trump. Some even endorsed Hillary. Many prominent establishment Republicans have publicly said they were voting for Hillary, while others said they simply will not vote for Trump. The exit polling in Florida showed many Republicans voted for Hillary for the top of the ticket, but stuck to the GOP lower (the same respondents voted overwhelmingly for Rubio for instance) down. AKA: Secret Hillary voters.

Hillary’s ground game is far superior. She has more field offices, and her get out the vote operation dwarfs anything Trump has.

Trumps path to 270 is a tough road. Unless all of the polling data is pure junk, then Trump must win all the swing states, and then break into Hillary’s Democrat firewall in order to win. Since the polling companies were utilized in the GOP primary and were accurate, I see no reason to believe it’s skewed now.

Since we’re at the end of the line, I will just make my final guesses rather than put up a map that reflects RCPs polling aggregate (and leave states undecided for instance.)

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#1362 Re: The Garden » US Politics Thread » 522 weeks ago

Smoking Guns wrote:

I thought you guys said the FBI was out to get HRC. Now you say it was FOX news. Which is it?  I think it all worked out well for HRC.

I thought you said this was going to be big news? That the FBI wouldn't do this unless there was a bombshell?

I always thought Comey was between a rock and a hard place. Damned if he made that announcement and damned if he did not.  I said that from the start. However it has since come to light that many inside the FBI are Trump guys and hate Hillary. This isn't a good thing in my opinion and made me question Comey's integrity.

#1363 Re: The Garden » US Politics Thread » 522 weeks ago

Fox News walked back most of what they reported a few days ago and Bret Baier apologized for the words he used. I thought that was odd. Makes sense now.

#1364 Re: The Garden » US Politics Thread » 522 weeks ago

NV GOP Chairman is butthurt over all the Latinos voting the night before last here in Vegas. He sure sounds like he'd prefer if they limited voting.

#1365 Re: The Garden » US Politics Thread » 522 weeks ago

Rushed off the state up in Reno.

#1366 Re: The Garden » US Politics Thread » 522 weeks ago

Looks like Latinos are up significantly in early voting. Upwards of 150% higher than 2012 in Florida. Nevada early voting was also propelled by Latinos, and set a one day record for NV, which now puts Democrats ahead of their standing in 2012. The lines were so long here they had to keep extending the hours for early voting. Between the Latinos and union workers in Vegas (Trump Hotel pays on average 3/hr less to his workers and fights unions) I don't see him winning NV at all. Florida also seems highly unlikely.

I suspect women and Latinos are going to be the driving force this election.

#1367 Re: The Garden » US Politics Thread » 522 weeks ago

Speaking of voter suppression based on race, this today:

Federal Judge Says North Carolina Must Restore Voter Registrations Of Those Removed From Rolls
The North Carolina NAACP sued the state on Monday, claiming a purge targeted black voters.

WASHINGTON ? County election boards in North Carolina must restore the registrations of voters removed from the polls, U.S. District Judge Loretta Biggs ordered on Friday.

The order follows an emergency hearing held on Wednesday to address allegations that election officials in Beaufort, Moore and Cumberland counties had removed voters from the rolls due to campaign mailers that were returned as undeliverable.

The North Carolina NAACP sued the state on Monday, claiming the purge targeted black voters. The Justice Department submitted a statement of interest in the lawsuit on Monday night supporting the assertion that removing voters from the rolls en masse is a violation of the National Voter Registration Act.

Biggs, who during the hearing called the state’s process for removing voters’ names “insane,” said in her ruling that the NC NAACP had proved that names were unfairly removed.

“The Court finds that a narrowly tailored injunction is warranted to ensure that eligible voters are not deprived of their right to participate in the upcoming election due to a flawed process engaged in by the State and County Boards, which this Court has determined likely violates the NVRA,” Biggs said in her decision.

“Voter enfranchisement cannot be sacrificed when citizens through no fault of their own have been removed from the voter rolls,” she added.

Rev. William Barber, the president of the NC NAACP, said the court ruled against “surgical, intention racism.”

“Racism is about policy,” Barber said on a call with reporters. “It’s not just about feelings, it’s not just about language. It’s when you use your power ? or attempt to use your power ? to undermine the rights of people and you target it toward African-Americans.”

The civil rights group argues that these cancellations are an attempt by the Republican Party to suppress the black vote, which is lower this year than it was in 2012.

At least 5,600 registrations have been removed in Cumberland County for varying reasons since 2014, while 790 and 63 were removed in Moore and Beaufort counties, respectively.

At least 3,500 voters were removed in the past 90 days, according to Penda Hair, an attorney representing the NAACP. The cancellations could have cost Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton the election, since most of the voters are black and tend to lean Democrat.

It’s still unclear whether or not those people will be able to vote on Election Day.

State law mandates that voters within any given county can challenge the eligibility of another voter in that county up to 25 days before the election.

But the National Voter Registration Act says states can only cancel registrations if a voter provides written notice of a change in address or if a voter does not respond to a notice for two election cycles and fails to vote for two federal election cycles. States also cannot remove voters from the rolls 90 days or less before a federal election.

“What they’re doing is race-driven. It’s immoral, illegal and it is unconstitutional. The courts have spoken,” Barber said. “We’ve not seen this kind of intentional suppression since the days of Jim Crow.”

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/nor … 0b02ca2471

#1368 Re: The Garden » US Politics Thread » 522 weeks ago

polluxlm wrote:

Turns out Wiener is a square guy compared to these Podesta folks Hillary keeps around her. Satanic dinners and stuff? Who are these people?

The internet: It can be used for good too ya know.

http://www.snopes.com/john-podesta-spirit-cooking/

#1369 Re: The Garden » US Politics Thread » 522 weeks ago

Smoking Guns wrote:

Voter ID Opinions from UC Berkeley and Harlem... Excellent watch. Makes the white liberal elites look so fucking stupid.


Who cares.

The fact remains that the GOP work tirelessly to make it more difficult to vote under the guise of "voter fraud." The reality is that it's virtually non existent. It's a non issue.

Although so far in this election there has been one arrest for voter fraud, who turned out to be a Trump supporter.

#1370 Re: The Garden » US Politics Thread » 522 weeks ago

misterID wrote:

Cramer, did you read this?

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/201 … nald-trump

This is just as scary:
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2 … anboy.html

Two days before FBI director James Comey rocked the world last week, Rudy Giuliani was on Fox, where he volunteered, un-prodded by any question: “I think he’s [Donald Trump] got a surprise or two that you’re going to hear about in the next few days. I mean, I’m talking about some pretty big surprises.”
Pressed for specifics, he said: “We’ve got a couple of things up our sleeve that should turn this thing around.”

You know I gave Comey the benefit of the doubt with this. I figured he must be between a rock and  a hard place. But now I'm not so sure. This is pretty outrageous. Even Republicans have spoken out against the timing of this announcement, but now it appears much more insidious than poor timing.

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