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#1372 Re: The Garden » US Politics Thread » 497 weeks ago

Well thanks for coming along and fucking my post up. Might as well delete is now.

Pay attention.

#1373 Re: The Garden » US Politics Thread » 497 weeks ago

polluxlm wrote:

Trump leads Florida in the real statistics, so all they can do is make up this "poll" to claim that all the Republicans voting isn't really voting for him. The last ditch effort.

haha, now you suddenly like polls again? I thought they were all "skewed"?

College of William and Mary  is "making up" this exit poll? Ummm, OK. roll

Smoking Guns wrote:

Exactly. Early voting is a fucking sham.

What's that even mean? Early voting is democratic.

buzzsaw wrote:

    It's as valid as most of the other polls being quoted as fact.

    The only poll that matters is the one this coming Tuesday.  If you believe everything you read, that one may not matter either.

I remember guys like you in 2012, before Obama kicked your ass and put the baby to bed before 11 PM. SAD!

If I had to choose between a data collection agency paired with a highly rated American college, or some guy off the internet who thinks he's a genius...guess who I'd tend to believe?

And this should be pointed out to you guys, since you're bad at math and don't like data: Hillary can lose Florida and Ohio and still beat Trump.

Even nutty right wing "Newsmax" is reporting this today:

   

But TargetSmart's Tom Bonier told MSNBC's Lawrence O'Donnell on Tuesday night his firm's methodology is more accurate because his pollsters call a random sample of the actual 3.6 million voters who already have cast early ballots and ask them how they cast their ballots, as well as obtain demographic data about them.

Also noted in this early voter exit polling is that these same Republicans voted GOP down ticket, just not for POTUS.

#1374 Re: The Garden » US Politics Thread » 497 weeks ago

misterID wrote:

No.

Early voting in Florida isn't looking good for your guy, SG. A good portion of Florida Republicans voted for Hillary.

This is really big news.

If I'm understanding correctly this is essentially exit polling with early voters by William and Mary college/Targetsmart (data collecting company.) They are reporting that 28% of registered Republicans in Florida voted for Hillary Clinton. The flip side to that showed virtually zero registered Democrats voting for Donald Trump. That backs up my theory of the silent Hillary voters while proving the "closet Trump voter" to be non existent. I find it difficult to believe it's exclusive to this subset of early voters in Florida.  I'd expect more Republicans to vote for Hillary behind the curtain. Nearly a third though is just...wow.

#1375 Re: The Garden » US Politics Thread » 497 weeks ago

Randall Flagg wrote:

You've handwaived that Clinton did anything wrong from day one and have not waivered despite the mountain of evidence. Yet 12 women randomly claim Trump touched them (raped a teenage girl, don't forget) and you're sold. I mean, for real?

How  many accusers must come forward before it means something? A dozen women are all making this up? These claims paired with that tape make it quite easy to believe these women. I guess if a woman is ugly in your eyes that negates her story? Yikes.

I don't know what to make of the underage Trump rape allegations, I haven't read much about it, however that doesn't mean Americans won't arrive at their own conclusions. It's out in the open, there will be more, it will continue. If he becomes president, it's not going to go away. That's my point. None of this will go away, no matter who is POTUS.

Despite what you righties may claim, I am not a Clinton apologist. I rarely speak about her and spend the majority of my time criticizing the tangerine dream of the Alt Right. She was not my first choice by any means. She wasn't in 2008 and she's not in 2016.

I've said this plenty of times, but you're not welcome to define my silence. Buzz expects "fairness" and "balance" in this topic, sorry but that's not how it works. I spend my time blasting Trump because I find him repugnant on many levels.

What do I believe about Clinton? That she's made lazy/arrogant mistakes, none of which were malicious in nature. The majority I suspect were born from secrecy (which is what happens when you have a political party up your ass with a magnifying glass for three decades, hardly a surprise.) What do I know? I know that no criminal charges were brought against this woman...again. I've also pointed out several times in this thread that the same group who spends millions to prosecute her, always end up exonerating her. Why do they fail so miserably? It's certainly not from a lack of trying, but from a lack of evidence.

The boy who cried wolf comes to mind often with the Republican party. There are valid complaints and issues buried underneath decades of rumors, lies, loose innuendos and conspiracy theories. But the crazies of your party drown out any legitimate grievances the potty trained Republicans may have. She should be held accountable for any misdeeds, but the GOP spend more time attacking a caricature of Clinton and whipping their base into a frenzy instead.

Let's not forget you voted for her too. We both came to that conclusion because we understand the choice we have here. It's the adult thing to do. You may be more vocal in your criticism, but that does not mean I am without my own complaints.

#1376 Re: The Garden » US Politics Thread » 497 weeks ago

Randall Flagg wrote:
bigbri wrote:
PaSnow wrote:

I said it before tho, this is a 1 term President.

I agree. For one reason, they are so damn old already. They'll both be 74 next election.


If she wins and does what Obama wouldn't, (not interested in arguing again who is to blame for gridlock) I don't see why she wouldn't get a 2nd term.  She's not an amateur coming in with a fictitious view on how Washington works.  She can come in there and nominate another Sotomayor for SCOTUS and ensure nothing gets done or she can come in and nominate someone the GOP congress can work with. 

If Hillary is a one term president, she will have no one to blame but herself.  She is in the best position to end partisan gridlock and if she accomplishes that, there's no GOP superstar looming in the background to unseat her.  Though I did hear Hillary was taking bids to host her new Clinton Mail server.  big_smile


If Clinton becomes president the GOP will continue to "investigate" her 24/7. However as long as she governs effectively and does her job, she will probably get reelected. The "scandals" over the last 25 years have tarnished her image, especially among those on the fence. But it's important to remember she had high approval ratings as both a Senator and as Secretary of State. I see no reason why she won't continue to do the same as POTUS. People are uncertain, which is understandable given the constant onslaught of negativity thrown at her.

On the other hand if Trump becomes president I'd expect the same thing to happen. His child rape trial begins at the end of November. He has 12 women who claim he groped them. He has endless baggage that come with him, more will be unearthed as time marches on. Frankly he doesn't have a clue how to govern, and his instability has already spooked Wall Street. There is going to be tremendous pressure from both Democrats and Republicans to nail his ass on something, and it won't be hard to do IMO. If Wall Street suffers, then you better believe they'll be going after him too in some capacity.  IMO a Trump presidency would be hard pressed to make it a full term, much less get re-elected.

One thing is for sure however, Trump has split an already fractured Republican party into many pieces. If he became President, the GOP is history, done, kaput...I can guarantee that much.

#1377 Re: The Garden » US Politics Thread » 497 weeks ago

Randall Flagg wrote:

A good friend of mine is managing Trump'a campaign in a key battleground state. He called me last night asking if I'd work the war room next week. I had to break his heart and tell him I voted for Clinton.

Looks like one less Christmas card this year for you!

Randall Flagg wrote:

I don't think she's funny at all.  She's a lot like Amy Schumer.  Say shit Lenny, Bill or Carlin said 30 years ago and toss in some vagina for good measure.

Yes, but did you watch the bit?

#1378 Re: The Garden » US Politics Thread » 497 weeks ago

bigbri wrote:
Smoking Guns wrote:

Does trump have a shot or what? Polls getting tight.

Yes, he does.

There haven't been a lot of high-quality polls in Michigan, for example, and he's been campaigning there. Internal polling might be telling him something.

That said, everything has to go right for Trump to win, but that could happen.

I still wouldn't count out one last Trump controversy, either. Someone leaks his taxes, that mythical "Apprentice" tape with him using the "n-word," a development in the child-rape lawsuit.

Election night is going to be exciting, interesting, and looooooong. We might have to wait for Colorado and Arizona or really late Ohio returns to know for sure who's winning. Unless Hillary wins Florida early.

There have been two big stories in the last 24 hours. One about Trump's taxes (or lack of) and the other about his relationship with Russia. Neither one has really made a big splash though. Both are big deals in my book, but at this point nobody is going to give a shit.


Donald Trump Used Legally Dubious Method to Avoid Paying Taxes

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/01/us/po … p-tax.html

A Veteran Spy Has Given the FBI Information Alleging a Russian Operation to Cultivate Donald Trump

http://www.motherjones.com/politics/201 … nald-trump

#1379 Re: The Garden » US Politics Thread » 497 weeks ago

This was interesting.

#1380 Re: The Garden » US Politics Thread » 497 weeks ago

Smoking Guns wrote:

Does trump have a shot or what? Polls getting tight.

Nate Silver has him up to 25% now. So he has a shot. Still though Hillary can lose Ohio and Florida and still win. Trump needs to sweep these swing states in order to win.

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