This thread becomes so circular after a while.

Polling showed Trump trouncing the GOP primary field. It was quite accurate.

Polling now shows Hillary beating Trump. This also includes internal polling from the Republican party.

But now somehow this information is "skewed" and we're also not accounting for other factors. Give me a break.

haha, this reminds me of a stock market analyst I read a few years ago. He predicted the market would either go up, or could possibly go down. Genius I tell ya!

Here is my 270-to-win map, using RCP state averages. Margin of error is generally 3-4%. I only give a state to a candidate if they are at +4 or higher.

As you can see there are a few "toss up states" left on the map. But even with that, Hillary already has it locked down.

A few things to note:

NC is trending Clinton + 2.5 with her winning all recent state polling. I'd imagine the likelihood of her picking that state up is high.
AZ has been trending Clinton over the last couple of polls (+5 and +2) , but her average is only +1.3 at this point. Could she really take AZ? It certainly looks like a possibility.
UT is within margin of error, but I'd imagine McMullin gets the Beehive state before Clinton. Either way, Trump may not get the EVs.
Alaska too was within margin of error.

Lets say that Trump won every single toss up state on this map. He would still  lose, falling 40 EVs short.

More than likely Hillary will pick up NC and OH,  putting her around 341. If she can get AZ that would put her at 352.

What? I'd guess  330ish EVs for Hillary at least.

Steve Schmidt  is quoting internal polling here, and it sounds like the GOP are shifting into freak out mode. To hit 400 EVs though, they would have to lose both TX and AZ, which sure seems unlikely to me. But then again he seems to have access to data that we don't. His tonality says a lot too, the guy is dead serious. See clip below.

Republican strategist: Clinton could top 400 electoral votes

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/pre … -electoral

You caught that too?

He did that on the last debate, double talked, but nobody called him out on it.

Did anybody notice his energy in these last debates vs the primaries? The guy looks worn the eff out.

Hillary was prepared and handled this very well. Trump too seemed much more coherent, if only for a little bit. I had to laugh at him essentially blaming Hillary for not paying taxes, and using Chinese steel on his properties. What a joke.

I generally don't like Wallace, but he did a fine job I thought.