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#1601 Re: The Garden » 2016 Presidential Election Thread » 507 weeks ago
The poll that is out right now samples 50% more democrats than republicans. In a nation where the two groups are about equal and the GOP had stronger turnout in their primaries, does that seem reasonable?
This has already been explained in detail by Nate Silver. Go back and read the article.
In addition the GOP trotted out the same talking point in 2012 and got clobbered by Obama. If that isn't enough proof that this idea is inaccurate I don't know what else is.
#1602 Re: The Garden » 2016 Presidential Election Thread » 508 weeks ago
The campaign manager not wanting to answer what exactly will happen to 11 million people is not worthy of that headline. Even if true and he won't be throwing out every single one of those millions, that's hardly a "major flip flop". Also funny to see the media trying to present that possibility as a bad thing.
Everybody is reporting it, and Team Trump isn't denying it. Considering his rabid base is primarily driven by the immigration issue, it's kind of a big deal.
#1603 Re: The Garden » 2016 Presidential Election Thread » 508 weeks ago
So what you're saying is I am right? I'm sure that's what you're saying because (surprise) I am.
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.....you're so angry and boring. All you do is pivot in this thread. It seems to be a common trait with Republicans, you never can stand by what you say. Why is this? You're always jumping from one foot to the other.
Either you believe asset prices are in bubble territory or you do not. Yes or no. You state that the RE prices are puffed up, how we should all "learn" economics like you and they will pop again soon. I ask for you to back that up, and you act like an ass instead.
I notice you spend a great deal of time here telling everybody how smart you are, that your always right...you sound like Trump to be honest. You don't have to act like this every day you know, you can take a day off from time to time.
#1604 Re: The Garden » 2016 Presidential Election Thread » 508 weeks ago
I suspect those insider accounts are as accurate as those claiming he's about to drop out.
The Washington Post is reporting it.
It sure sounds like Donald Trump is considering his biggest flip-flop yet:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the … -flop-yet/
Donald Trump launched his campaign on a promise to be very, very tough on illegal immigration — and immigrants. He called Mexican immigrants "rapists" and "criminals." He would later promise to deport every single one of them — even approvingly referencing a controversial 1950s mass-deportation program known as "Operation Wetback." He has in recent weeks prominently featured victims of crimes perpetrated by illegal immigrants.
But according to reports and the suggestions of his top advisers on Sunday, it sounds as if he's considering seriously changing his tune — in what would amount to a stunning flip-flop.
Late Saturday, BuzzFeed and Univision reported that Trump backed away from that rhetoric at a meeting with a group of newly announced Hispanic advisers, appearing open to a plan to deal with the estimated 11 million illegal immigrants that is not deportation.
#1605 Re: The Garden » 2016 Presidential Election Thread » 508 weeks ago
New poll has Hillary +6 in Ohio.
#1606 Re: The Garden » 2016 Presidential Election Thread » 508 weeks ago
I never said every single market was inflated. Every market is unique. I then gave 2 examples of my experiences in different markets. Housing prices are rising sharply again as they did before the bubble. Eventually I will find the chart I was looking at so you can see that too since that seems to be the only way you'll believe anything.
Pure semantics. You claimed housing values were overvalued and would deflate. Then referenced the prior RE bubble. I said all real estate is local and asked for proof of your claims. You then point to local markets...just what I said.
Sometimes it's best to quit trying to be right about everything...
The chart shows a sharp increase in housing prices. I'll post it if/when I find it. It's very similar to the time when the housing bubble happened, then burst. Maybe prices went down too far and they are just recovering...hard to say, but the prices are increasing at a very fast pace right now.
In many markets prices went well below their floor. In Florida you could buy a nice 1/1 condo for 25-30k in 2009-2010. Nobody would believe it if they weren't there, but it was certainly true. Prices from 2010-2015 would show an absolute spike because the starting point was so ridiculously low. Other markets like San Fran, Miami etc are outrageously overpriced IMO, but that still remains to be seen since we have foreign buyers, hedge funds (not so much anymore) and cash buyers continuing to buy up.
#1607 Re: The Garden » 2016 Presidential Election Thread » 508 weeks ago
Insider accounts are floating around that Trump is going to announce his new plan to allow illegal immigrants to obtain citizenship. Surely he isn't going to back off one of his main points: Building a wall and purging America of illegals. Is he?
Any attempt to appear more humane and appeal to a broader voter demographic (too late anyway) would surely implode his base.
#1608 Re: The Garden » 2016 Presidential Election Thread » 508 weeks ago
Trump is having a great week. This shit will tighten up. I don't care about the polls right now. Come October we will know. But he is bouncing back. I like his female campaign manager and left alone with her I would make love to her.
What evidence do you have that he's bouncing back? The GOP is in full freak out mode right now. Nobody with numbers like this has ever turned it around so late in the game. Just sayin'...
#1609 Re: The Garden » 2016 Presidential Election Thread » 508 weeks ago
Should I bring up all of the presentations I've made (and been asked to make) at various universities and organizations regarding the job market, how to find a job, how to present a resume, etc? Do you need a list? At what point will you just accept that I know what I am talking about?
You support Hillary based on her supposed "qualifications" yet question mine. Insane. Safe to say I am more qualified to do my job than she is to be president. I'll stand by that as a fact as well...at worst we're equally qualified if you think I somehow exaggerated my qualifications.
I'm still waiting for you to explain to us how the entire country is currently in a real estate bubble Mr. "Expert."
#1610 Re: The Garden » 2016 Presidential Election Thread » 508 weeks ago
Meanwhile back to the rigged polls... Nate Silver has Ohio for Hillary at this point. I've only been using RCP average for state polling to put my map together and had OH @ 2.6+ for Clinton. He's gathering data from many more sources however and believes Ohio is now blue. Not as strong of leads as VA and CO for instance, but still blue. Trump leads in no swing states btw.
The map now looks like this, with Nate giving Hillary an 86% chance of winning with 356 EVs.
