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#1601 Re: The Garden » 2016 Presidential Election Thread » 533 weeks ago

polluxlm wrote:

Which article?


There have been several articles written about it actually. But here is a good one, Poll Averages Have No History of Consistent Partisan Bias

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/pol … isan-bias/


Notice Breitbart saying the same thing about oversampling in 2012, which was wrong on election night.

Surprise! Oversampling Dems Puts Obama in Lead

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government … a-in-lead/

#1602 Re: The Garden » 2016 Presidential Election Thread » 533 weeks ago

buzzsaw wrote:

What have I focused on?  Finck butchers the classic GnR songs (truth) and the job market.  Why the job market?  Because I know it better than all of you combined, that's why.  So while in your imagination I chime in on everything, the facts beg to differ.  This misdirection is what losers do when they know they are beaten.  I am an expert, I am paid like an expert, and I am respected in the industry as an expert.  My peers respect me as an expert.  The fact that two assclowns online disagree with my assessment so they feel I can't be an expert changes nothing.  You guys don't matter, my paycheck comes in every 2 weeks and I'd have companies begging to hire me if I had to find a new job tomorrow. 

Suck on that for a little bit.


You're such a bore...truly. Just indignant, arrogant and banal. Your diatribes aren't even your own, they're just rehashed blog noise that I can just as easily find in the youtube comment section. 

So again, your "Proof" is that you're a self proclaimed expert? As I said...

The reality is that there was only one basic metric in regards to how we arrived at UE numbers...until Obama became president. Once that happened, the GOP redefined how we would calculate that number and proceeded to trot out the "true" numbers. You clowns do the same thing, in different ways, with polling data and anything else that upsets you. Everything is "skewed" everything has a "liberal bias" etc etc. Math, science, economics...it's all a conspiracy because it doesn't say what you'd like it to say.

No need to answer (although I bet your enormous ego is incapable of silence) I'll just go look for a similar response over at Breitbart...will be the same thing anyway.

#1603 Re: The Garden » 2016 Presidential Election Thread » 533 weeks ago

misterID wrote:

Can I just say those naked Trump statues are completely stupid. I thought body shaming was bad? It's like when that female Trump supporter was assaulted by an entire group of Mexican protestors. She was spit on, cursed at and had flag poles and Mexican flags shoved in her face... On live TV ...and liberals said nothing. They were too busy reporting on Amber Heard.

I found that repugnant actually.

#1604 Re: The Garden » 2016 Presidential Election Thread » 533 weeks ago

misterID wrote:

The fact you made this all about yourself says everything. Sorry, James, I won't play into his crap no mo.

He's the smartest guy he knows!!! He also knows a lot of very very VERY smart people, tough people, who all say he's an expert in his field. You can ask any of them.

#1605 Re: The Garden » 2016 Presidential Election Thread » 533 weeks ago

polluxlm wrote:

The poll that is out right now samples 50% more democrats than republicans. In a nation where the two groups are about equal and the GOP had stronger turnout in their primaries, does that seem reasonable?



This has already been explained in detail by Nate Silver. Go back and read the article.

In addition the GOP trotted out the same talking point in 2012 and got clobbered by Obama. If that isn't enough proof that this idea is inaccurate I don't know what else is.

#1606 Re: The Garden » 2016 Presidential Election Thread » 533 weeks ago

polluxlm wrote:

The campaign manager not wanting to answer what exactly will happen to 11 million people is not worthy of that headline. Even if true and he won't be throwing out every single one of those millions, that's hardly a "major flip flop". Also funny to see the media trying to present that possibility as a bad thing.


Everybody is reporting it, and Team Trump isn't denying it. Considering his rabid base is primarily driven by the immigration issue, it's kind of a big deal.

#1607 Re: The Garden » 2016 Presidential Election Thread » 533 weeks ago

buzzsaw wrote:

So what you're saying is I am right?  I'm sure that's what you're saying because (surprise) I am.

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.....you're so angry and boring. All you do is pivot in this thread. It seems to be a common trait with Republicans, you never can stand by what you say. Why is this? You're always jumping from one foot to the other.

Either you believe asset prices are in bubble territory or you do not. Yes or no. You state that the RE prices are puffed up, how we should all "learn" economics like you and they will pop again soon. I ask for you to back that up, and you act like an ass instead.

I notice you spend a great deal of time here telling everybody how smart you are, that your always right...you sound like Trump to be honest. You don't have to act like this every day you know, you can take a day off from time to time.

#1608 Re: The Garden » 2016 Presidential Election Thread » 533 weeks ago

polluxlm wrote:

I suspect those insider accounts are as accurate as those claiming he's about to drop out.

The Washington Post is reporting it.

It sure sounds like Donald Trump is considering his biggest flip-flop yet:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the … -flop-yet/

Donald Trump launched his campaign on a promise to be very, very tough on illegal immigration — and immigrants. He called Mexican immigrants "rapists" and "criminals." He would later promise to deport every single one of them — even approvingly referencing a controversial 1950s mass-deportation program known as "Operation Wetback." He has in recent weeks prominently featured victims of crimes perpetrated by illegal immigrants.

But according to reports and the suggestions of his top advisers on Sunday, it sounds as if he's considering seriously changing his tune — in what would amount to a stunning flip-flop.

Late Saturday, BuzzFeed and Univision reported that Trump backed away from that rhetoric at a meeting with a group of newly announced Hispanic advisers, appearing open to a plan to deal with the estimated 11 million illegal immigrants that is not deportation.

#1609 Re: The Garden » 2016 Presidential Election Thread » 533 weeks ago

New poll has Hillary +6 in Ohio.

#1610 Re: The Garden » 2016 Presidential Election Thread » 533 weeks ago

buzzsaw wrote:

I never said every single market was inflated.  Every market is unique.  I then gave 2 examples of my experiences in different markets.  Housing prices are rising sharply again as they did before the bubble.  Eventually I will find the chart I was looking at so you can see that too since that seems to be the only way you'll believe anything.

Pure semantics. You claimed housing values were overvalued and would deflate. Then referenced the prior RE bubble. I said all real estate is local and asked for proof of your claims. You then point to local markets...just what I said.

Sometimes it's best to quit trying to be right about everything...

buzzsaw wrote:

The chart shows a sharp increase in housing prices.  I'll post it if/when I find it.  It's very similar to the time when the housing bubble happened, then burst.  Maybe prices went down too far and they are just recovering...hard to say, but the prices are increasing at a very fast pace right now.

In many markets prices went well below their floor. In Florida you could buy a nice 1/1 condo for 25-30k in 2009-2010. Nobody would believe it if they weren't there, but it was certainly true. Prices from 2010-2015 would show an absolute spike because the starting point was so ridiculously low. Other markets like San Fran, Miami etc are outrageously overpriced IMO, but that still remains to be seen since we have foreign buyers, hedge funds (not so much anymore) and cash buyers continuing to buy up.

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