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#1731 Re: The Garden » 2016 Presidential Election Thread » 523 weeks ago
Cramer wrote:They've already started. Watch this video, they are going to beat him up with his own words for the rest of the year. The Dems have a lot of material to pull from.
The more you underestimate your opponent the more it will hurt when HRC loses. Just worry about Hilary and not Trump.
I don't underestimate him. But he has a lot of weaknesses, all of which are recorded and will be used against him relentlessly until election day.
#1732 Re: The Garden » 2016 Presidential Election Thread » 523 weeks ago
They've already started. Watch this video, they are going to beat him up with his own words for the rest of the year. The Dems have a lot of material to pull from.
#1733 Re: The Garden » 2016 Presidential Election Thread » 523 weeks ago
How did more than 7 million Americans vote for this guy? We have alot of bad politicians too, but they at least have to pretend to be sane.
I think they're furious with the Republicans. They have been promising that they will end Obamacare, stop planned Parenthood, stop immigration, impeach Obama...etc etc for 7 years, and little if any of that has come to fruition. So now they're angry at their own party as well as the Democrats. That's where a guy like Cruz can squirm in...the only problem was that Trump did it much better.
As for Hillary, I think people greatly overestimate the impact of her "scandals." I've said it before, but it really only fires up the base. I'm sure it sways some undecideds, but most Democrats look at all these investigations and see it as yet another witch hunt led by the GOP. It's not going to change their minds.
#1734 Re: The Garden » 2016 Presidential Election Thread » 523 weeks ago
Didn't even realize until now that both Cruz and Kasich are out. That makes Trump vs Hillary official. No contested convention. These electoral maps are interesting but like I've said before, this is not your average presidential election. Very strange things have happened this cycle and they're going to get stranger. It would be a crucial mistake to write Trump off. People wrote him off as a joke right off the bat...now he's in the general election. What happens when people write him off as a joke for the general?
I like how Sanders refused to be bought off but agree with those who say he needs to go.
Why on earth did Cruz pick a VP? Bizarre.
I think that Cruz picked a Veep spot out of desperation. He had to play a full hand going into Indiana. He probably saw his poll numbers and felt she would help him win that state. It was all or nothing. Embarrassing in the end though, and odd. I hated Cruz, so I thoroughly enjoyed watching him give his concession speech.
I would also agree not to dismiss Trump. But despite how different everybody says it is (and it is, to a degree although what happens in Republicanland doesn't necessarily mean it will happen in a General) there are some cold hard facts about that electoral map. There are serious demographic issues facing Trump-and they'll use clips of him saying stupid shit all day long. There are also portion of the GOP electorate (while I can't quantify this obviously) who are incredulous and appalled at Trump's nomination.
I'm also going to say that I sincerely don't believe Trump thought he'd ever get this far. I really believe he wanted to shake things up, build his brand, and then dip out when he had to. I say this because his infrastructure is almost non-existent. He didn't want to spend that much money, and as it turned out he didn't need to (thanks to the media).
If I'm correct about that or not, the point remains that now he has to do something he has zero experience in: Build a massive political machine for a general election, and all the other things that go along with it. Without the backing of the RNC on this, I'd imagine it would be quite an uphill battle. Hillary has an extensive network, donors, political operatives, consultants, massive databases etc etc all at her fingertips. Romney's fumbled his ground game, and so did McCain. Obama did the opposite, building the largest grassroots organization in American politics. I'd imagine Hilldawg will be pulling from that database...
#1735 Re: The Garden » 2016 Presidential Election Thread » 523 weeks ago
Don't be so quick to think the GOP is going to embrace Trump. In fact right now the opposite is happening, they are actually talking about supporting Hillary as a means to preserve their party. They'd rather have her for four years then Trump demolishing the GOP for decades. High up Republicans are saying this today. They are also terrified that Trump will hurt their Senate and House races (and they are probably correct.)
So who is Trump's running mate going to be?
#1736 Re: The Garden » 2016 Presidential Election Thread » 523 weeks ago
Interesting stuff, but I don't think Hillary wins California. I think that'll be one of the shocker states. New York is also going to go to Trump imo.
California is a lock, just like NY is a lock for the Dems. C'mon man...what are you smoking? You're starting to sound like Lofton suddenly...:haha: (edit Maybe not anymore.)
Like I said, based on what you have there, I see your point. I am crazy, but I don't think Hillary gets Cali or NY. Those are going to be what buries her.
Crazy like a fox alright, haha. Let us revisit this in November!
#1737 Re: The Garden » 2016 Presidential Election Thread » 523 weeks ago
Axlin16 wrote:Cramer wrote:Please do not speak on my behalf, and then argue against that.
Oh and btw, this comment... umm... not sure how to take it.
Isn't this the ENTIRE BASIS of an internet message board?
I thought that was what the 'Reply' button was for...
I think what he means is that you are attributing ideas to him that aren't actually found in his text and then arguing against those propositions as if it was something he said
This.
#1738 Re: Guns N' Roses » Axl Rose joins AC/DC » 523 weeks ago
I'm getting really stoked about this now. I wish I could see them when they come back to America. But I think they already played Vegas.
#1739 Re: The Garden » 2016 Presidential Election Thread » 524 weeks ago
You watch too much of the mainstream, corporate-media. That's what they, and their polls want you to believe.
I don't watch "news." I don't even have cable. It's all garbage. Please do not speak on my behalf, and then argue against that.
Rarely are these exit polls EVER correct.
I'm not talking about exit polls. I'm talking about incoming data right now. That doesn't mean Trump v Hillary polls. It means likability scores, popularity of the Republican party (or lack of) Obama's current approval ratings, Hillary's demographic strengths/weaknesses, females who overwhelmingly hate Trump, minorities who hate Trump, apathetic Republicans who hate Trump, the demographic shift of the Electoral College map over the last decade (blue)...on and on.
In 2012, the polls never had Romney beating Obama, but the GOP was blinded by the fact that thinking Romney had a chance. Most polls had Romney & Obama neck and neck.
The GOP was blinded by residing in a echo chamber and claiming the polls were skewed by the liberal media. They even created their own "unskewed polls" and brought out talking heads who didn't know jack shit about statistics to refute what they were being told by everybody else.
Nate Silver called it, almost exactly to the EV. Some polls were off, some were way off, and others were on the money. A true statistician has the time to look at all of this data and arrive at a more acute conclusion. That's what Nate Silver did.
Lets look at an electoral map. Hillary's EV walking in the door-251 EVs. Now, NV will probably go blue, as well as Iowa. But I'll play the Devil's advocate and give four other states to Trump. That means Trump could win Fl, VA, OH and NC, and still lose.

With Hillary's past, bad press
The bad press applies overwhelmingly to the right side of the aisle. In other words while it's red meat for the GOP base, the rest of the country sees how transparent this is (13 Benghazi hearings that yielded absolutely nothing.) The amount of Democrat voters these "scandals" will sway are minimal.
Forget money, and all the comedy routines making fun of Trump's idle threats. Trump is the wave. No different than Obama in 2008.
They are not alike at all. Obama was well liked by most Americans, while Trump is overwhelmingly disliked. Obama's "unfavorable rating" in 2008 was 39%. Trump score reigns supreme at 67% (The highest in over three decades.) After the primaries Obama was embraced by the Democrat party. Trump's eventual nomination will strike a fatal blow to the GOP. They're despondent at this point already. Obama also had polling data that predicted he would win a general election, unlike Trump which shows he will lose to either Hillary or Bernie.
I agree Trump is being pushed along by a wave of people fed up with the Status Quo, but in order to win a General, he's going to need a lot more than what he's got.
#1740 Re: The Garden » 2016 Presidential Election Thread » 524 weeks ago
bigbri wrote:Smoking Guns wrote:Looks all but official. Trump vs Clinton
Then it's just a formality: Hillary Clinton will be president. She'll win in a landslide. No doubt in my mind. Two of the worst nominees in my lifetime.
It'll never happen.
I'm telling you.
We're going to come back to this post in November, I promise you that. Not only (keeping in mind no dirty tricks), straight Trump vs. Hilary... not only will Trump win, he'll win by over 60% of the popular vote.
Yep
Where are you getting this idea from? There is zero data to support this. None. Zilch. Nada.
It is going to be a blowout of epic proportion in Hillary's favor. Trump is despised. The GOP has the lowest approval rating in the last 20 years right now; most of which comes from Republicans on top of it.
Hillary has about 250 EVs walking in the door.
Trump with over 60% of the popular vote....how much money would you like to wager on that one? 


