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#1841 Re: The Garden » 2016 Presidential Election Thread » 532 weeks ago
misterID wrote:polluxlm wrote:Well, chances are it will be Trump again...
No doubt he will run again after he loses this election.
Wow. I think the exact opposite. I do think his ego began to take this seriously recently, and I do think he "wants" to be President. But the rigors & time away from what he really does, and the potential harm to his business brand/legacy, and kids, I think no way he runs again.
This whole thing is partially a joke deep down to him. A botched prank gone awry.
I agree. I see this as a one time deal.
Part of me wonders if he ever imagined he would get this far (as you said.) That he just wanted to get in, ruffle feathers, build on his brand and finally dip out. But now here we are...
The other part of me wonders if this is one big troll. He gets the nomination, then drops out and endorses Hillary. hahaha. Highly improbable, but still...
#1842 Re: The Garden » 2016 Presidential Election Thread » 532 weeks ago
Pathetic.
#1843 Re: Guns N' Roses » Update from Izzy Stradlin » 533 weeks ago
Sometimes I think GnR fans are just the worst...total lame asses.
#1844 Re: The Garden » 2016 Presidential Election Thread » 533 weeks ago
Cramer wrote:The Latino vote btw is one of the largest growing demographics, who the GOP desperately need, that Trump has completely alienated from the get-go.
Are we sure about that? I see a lot of immigrants wanting to protect their current gains. I know if I had moved to a new country and floods of people from my country were giving us a bad reputation I'd want that to stop. As long as Trump walks the line carefully he might not sweep the latino vote, but I can see him doing a lot better than any other GOP candidate. Minorities have always been a problem for them, and I don't see Trump necessarily making it any worse. He won the republican latino vote in Vegas at least.
The immigration issue is a canard.
Pew research and Political fact checks say that illegal immigration is at net zero for the last few years now. Of course conservative blogs say these are totally wrong. The same group of people who predicted Romney would win in a landslide, and that polling data was skewed left. But I digress...
I guess it depends on many different factors. But I'd imagine the super PACs for the Dems are going to run his statements about Mexcians endlessly before the election in both English and Spanish.
#1845 Re: The Garden » 2016 Presidential Election Thread » 533 weeks ago
Dude, I haven't met one single person that doesn't think Trump isn't the savior of America. Including Democrats. The only naysayers i've seen are the conspiracy types that, are correct, in pointing out Trump's many evils over the years and are convinced he'd be Mussolini for a President.
A good amount of registered Republicans loathe this man. Can't stand him. Find him obtuse and obnoxious. Dangerous.
If you think that the GOP will come out en masse to vote for Trump, and at the same time democratic defectors will cross the line from the left side of the aisle to vote for him, you're completely mistaken. If he was going to "Crush" Hillary, polling data would already show that, but it doesn't. On the other hand, polling data consistently shows him obliterating the right wing field, which he has. However for the GE the latest FOX NEWS poll has Hillary at 47 and Trump at 42. NBC has Clinton at 50 and Trump at 40. Quinnipac has Clinton on top again at 46/41. However, that's today. The election is still a long ways away.
You're also completely ignoring the reality of the electoral map. If you keep NV, OH, CO, IA, FL, NC, VA and WI as toss up states, that still leaves Hillary at 241 walking in the door. And that's me being very generous with WI, IA and NV. (if I included those three, which I'd say is likely, she's at 263 to start)
If Trump does beat Hillary, it's going to be by 30 points or so, and that's really difficult math for the Republican party to pull off.
Edit: and while all the alpha-male posturing, trash talking other cultures and misogyny made him a darling with the GOP, that same narrative will be used against him 24/7 by the DNC. The Latino vote btw is one of the largest growing demographics, who the GOP desperately need, that Trump has completely alienated from the get-go.
#1846 Re: The Garden » 2016 Presidential Election Thread » 533 weeks ago
I don't believe California is in play. I understand and believe your sentiment, but the state may also be drawn up in such a way that would make it nearly impossible to be turned red. Ever been to South Florida? In particular Miami? English is a second language down there. I'll go to restaurants, grocery stores... you name it, and Spanish is the dominant language. The waitress will approach the table and speak to us in Spanish. White flight up to West Palm, Lauderdale etc, but the state has actually gone blue the last two elections.
Hillary can win without Ohio no problem. Ohio is losing it's heft because of states like Colorado, Nevada, Virginia, NC, Wisconsin, and Iowa have been trending blue lately. As I said to you before though, I think Trump could flip many of them red this time.
I'd argue against a blowout election either way. I don't see it happening for either one. But that's today...by October who knows.
#1847 Re: The Garden » 2016 Presidential Election Thread » 533 weeks ago
Nahhh, never happen. Trumps gotta go toss-up state for his VP. Either Florida (which is why I'm surpised Rubio attacked him so hard. I thought he was gonna cede to the fact he'll become Trumps running mate. (Young, likeable, upstart, Latino & Florida). But I guess Rubio's advisors just told him to go All In for the nom. Otherwise I read the Fla Governor, the SC gov (woman), and maybe Ohio (Kasich, must be why he's staying in the race, to get better name recognition).
To be clear, I wasn't saying that Christie would be his Veep (or wanted to be), but rather what career politician on the right would be willing to endorse Trump at all. It's a risky endeavor, especially since many don't see Trump as a conservative. And if Trump were to run and then lose, they could be punished later on for going against the grain.
I agree with what you said in regards to swing states. Christie also has the same alpha-male-tough guy persona, which wouldn't make sense as a running mate.
#1848 Re: The Garden » 2016 Presidential Election Thread » 533 weeks ago
2- I think he made some good points on foreign policy,?how we've destabilized the region.
.
I found the exchange about Israel very interesting. Trump, like everybody who preceded him, wants to negotiate peace between Israel and Palestine, and feels that he must take a different approach. Rubio scoffs, saying that Palestinians are terrorists, and we should be stand beside Israel first and foremost. In other words, business as usual, expecting a different result. This is where I like Trump, because he points out that the status quo isn't working, or hasn't worked (Iraq) and we should try it differently. On the other hand, does he have the foreign policy know how and experience to do this? I doubt it.
#1849 Re: The Garden » 2016 Presidential Election Thread » 533 weeks ago
Also, the exchange between Rubio and Trump on Obamacare was weird. Rubio argued that Trump didn't have any real ideas on healthcare, other than "getting rid of the lines, whatever that means".
Wtf - that's the idea. Create competition and allow the market to reduce price. That's the idea. And that's the most conservative of ideas. That was the idea that republicans presented as the alternative for Obamacare - now Rubio doesn't know what that means all of a sudden? Wtf? Why press Trump on that? What was he looking for? A lecture on free market economics 101? Does Rubio not believe in free market economics?
Bottom line, you make covering pre existing conditions mandatory - you allow carriers to compete nation wide. Carriers that can't afford it will fail, carriers that can make it affordable with succeed - that's the market system - that's how you make things affordable. Rubio "doesn't think that's a realistic idea" because the healthcare lobby doesn't like the idea. Crony capitalism.
I thought it was weird too. Trump just shrugged his shoulders and said (paraphrasing) "Yes, that's it!" Simple concept, no need for a dissertation. I had to laugh at Rubio too, who offered tax credits for Americans to buy insurance...you know, like Obamacare. In fact when you read his plans (chock full of generic and empty promises like "promote innovation") it's quite similar to the ACA.
Anyway...Christie endorses Trump. Which to me is shocking, and kind of a big deal (We'll see how true that is I guess.) Also answers my earlier question in regards to his Veep and who would put their neck out there to get on the Trump bandwagon. Well now we know...
#1850 Re: The Garden » 2016 Presidential Election Thread » 533 weeks ago
Rubio hit Trump hard tonight...I couldn't believe it.
