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#381 Re: The Garden » Covid 19 » 316 weeks ago
The cases are low because we're self quarantining.
Going to let you in on a secret (not really a secret since I said it weeks ago): The number of cases isn't low. Estimates I've seen in the last couple days say 50 - 85 times the numbers reported at this point. Let's say it's only 20 times to be super conservative. That's not low because of social distancing...it's high in spite of social distancing. And think about this...20 times more cases with the same number of deaths in spite of the fact that they have admittedly been fudging the death numbers upward. What does that make the death rate?
Weeks ago I told you guys this and you mocked me. Well signs are pointing towards me being more right than wrong...so again I have to ask was it all worth it?
#382 Re: The Garden » Covid 19 » 316 weeks ago
I think rational people can put two and two together, and even then, it's best to be safe than sorry. Another aspect will be places that continue to suffer with it well after we clear the curve. Like Russia.
No, see this is either pure ignorance or just sheeple thinking. More and more "rational" people and the data are indicating that we overreacted. It's not better to be safe than sorry when your definition of "safe" hurt way more people than the virus has. It's way, way, WAY too early to make statements like better safe than sorry. Let's table that talk until a year from now and we've gone through any potential additional cycles because we don't know and based on the fudging of the numbers we may never know.
There's a LOT that can change and there are all sorts of guesses not yet supported by fact like the virus is going to come back worse in September and things along those line. NOBODY knows that...not the so-called experts, not the media, not the president, and certainly not you.
Here's what we know: death numbers are significantly below what was projected. Cities are much more prone to being hotspots than rural areas. Hospitals have been so under-utilized that many (especially in rural areas) are laying off staff - now I know you're going to give all the credit for that to social distancing while not even considering the possibility that we overreacted. I don't have the numbers, but it certainly seems like in the US that almost all of the deaths have been the elderly (nursing homes hit hard - that's where your bodies are piling up) and those with health issues that are not controlled. Yes, there have been a few (very few) that don't fit that category, but since they are just assuming everyone these days died from this so the numbers come out to justify their decision making, you have to take those with a grain of salt.
People shit on China (rightfully so) for their reporting and we're basically doing the same thing but in the other direction...we want it to be a bigger deal than it is because we have to justify the reaction. The blame game is going on from both sides; every state is trying to outdo the reaction from other states...it's complete insanity. Something that shouldn't be political at all has been completely fucked up by politicians.
#383 Re: The Garden » Covid 19 » 317 weeks ago
Yeah, I meant to post this the other day: https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/04/16/g … q_fT1mlUJ0
Far better news. While I can see it being more widespread, thus lowering the fatality & severe infection rate drastically can be looked at as a positive, consider this, each of us has it, then goes over our parents house again quite a bit. My parents are up there, and not sure I'd feel comfortable doing that, although, at some point yeah we're getting back to normal.
I'll admit & I posted it weeks ago I'm pretty sure, it's far more contagious than we initially thought, but it is less deadly than we presumed. It isn't the death sentence we thought it'd be. When Tom Hanks & that first NBA player announced they tested positive, I really thought it was the early days of AIDS (Freddie Mercury, Rock Hudson, Liberace, Robert Reed/Mr Brady). Until Magic & the treatment he was put on almost no one survived it.
Like most things, when the dust settles, the truth is going to be somewhere between the doom and gloom and everything is fine. I think as time goes on it's leaning closer to the all is fine side, but I think there were more deaths than I thought there would be originally and they aren't done yet.
I do believe we'll look back at this and say we overreacted; having said that what we need to study is why. If we overreacted, there's nothing we can do about that; it's done. We can do something about making sure we don't overreact next time while not under-reacting if the situation dictates it next time because we overreacted this time. There will be a next time. We're going to need to react appropriately which means not just assuming it's no big deal.
I also think if it turns out China either did this on purpose or f'd up an experiment, they need to be dealt with by the world (not just us). It's too early to even think about how as we don't know what happened for real (and may never know)...but we need to take a hard look at this as a group of countries on the same planet. If we can't figure out how to not have things like this happening, then we need to rethink this global community idea.
#384 Re: The Garden » Covid 19 » 317 weeks ago
Good news (I think):
______________________________________________________________________________
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ … ly-thought
Antibody study suggests coronavirus is far more widespread than previously thought
Non-peer reviewed study from Stanford found rate of virus may be 50 to 85 times higher than official figures
A new study in California has found the number of people infected with coronavirus may be tens of times higher than previously thought.
The study from Stanford University, which was released Friday and has yet to be peer reviewed, tested samples from 3,330 people in Santa Clara county and found the virus was 50 to 85 times more common than official figures indicated.
To ease the sprawling lockdowns currently in place to stop the spread of Covid-19, health officials must first determine how many people have been infected. Large studies of the prevalence of the virus within a region could play a key role, researchers say.
“This has implications for learning how far we are in the course of the epidemic,” said Eran Bendavid, the associate professor of medicine at Stanford University who led the study. “It has implications for epidemic models that are being used to design policies and estimate what it means for our healthcare system.”
The study marks the first large-scale study of its kind, researchers said. The study was conducted by identifying antibodies in healthy individuals through a finger prick test, which indicated whether they had already contracted and recovered from the virus.
At the time of the study, Santa Clara county had 1,094 confirmed cases of Covid-19, resulting in 50 deaths. But based on the rate of people who have antibodies, it is likely that between 48,000 and 81,000 people had been infected in Santa Clara county by early April – a number approximately 50 to 80 times higher.
That also means coronavirus is potentially much less deadly to the overall population than initially thought. As of Tuesday, the US’s coronavirus death rate was 4.1% and Stanford researchers said their findings show a death rate of just 0.12% to 0.2%.
The study has been interpreted by some to mean we are closer to herd immunity – the concept that if enough people in a population have developed antibodies to a disease that population becomes immune – than expected. This would allow some to more quickly get back to work, a strategy currently being deployed in Sweden. But researchers behind the study said not to jump to conclusions or make policy choices until more research has been done.
The study confirms the widely-held belief that far more people than originally thought have been infected with the coronavirus, said Arthur Reingold, an epidemiology professor at UC Berkeley who was not involved in the study, but it doesn’t mean the shelter-in-place order will be lifted any time soon.
“The idea this would be a passport to going safely back to work and getting us up and running has two constraints: we do not know if antibodies protect you and for how long, and a very small percentage of the population even has antibodies,” he said.
Even with the adjusted rate of infection as found by the study, only 3% of the population has coronavirus – that means 97% does not. To reach herd immunity 50% or more of the population would have to be infected and recovered from coronavirus.
It is also unclear if the study, conducted exclusively on residents of Santa Clara county, is representative of the rest of the United States, researchers said.
“It is absolutely critical that similar studies be done all around the country,” said Jayanta Bhattacharya, a professor at Stanford and author on the study. “It’s very clear that the virus is more prevalent in some areas than in others, and understanding the prevalence of viruses in each region is is a critical step forward to making some policy.”
Other large-scale sample studies are currently underway. The National Institute of Health is testing 10,000 people. UC Berkeley is going to test 5,000 healthy volunteers to see if they have, or have ever had, the coronavirus.
#385 Re: The Garden » Covid 19 » 317 weeks ago
I've seen good and bad numbers from different sources on Sweden. Some of that I think is because like a lot of states, the numbers are being changed after initially being reported. Has anyone seen anything reliable?
#386 Re: The Garden » Covid 19 » 317 weeks ago
misterID wrote:LOL!
Thought this was a total sausage fest.
Anyway, take care of yourself, girl.
Thank you, ID
And I thought my avatar was girly enough....
We're (mostly) a pretty open-minded group on social issues...there are men that would be well represented by that avatar.
Glad you're feeling better.
#387 Re: The Garden » Covid 19 » 317 weeks ago
AtariLegend wrote:Yamcha wrote:
Get well soon, Boris.
This comes a bit late
So...
I have it, I think.
It's been a weird week. I have symptoms but not the typical ones such as fever. I called a GP before Easter. They didn't diagnose it, they said I must have something 'viral', though. They told me to keep myself hydrated and take paracetamol. I tried self medicating with Vicks to clear my lungs and I felt it was making me feel worse so I stopped straight away. I stopped coughing after a couple days but now the cough is returning and I am not sure what it means. Am I getting better or not? Everything feels so unfamiliar.
Food has no taste whatsoever. It's been about 7 days now. I can feel pepper and salt, as well as sweet things but the taste is gone. My sense of smell has disappeared too.
I am starting to have enough. During the first few days, I had to force myself to eat because I didn't feel hungry anymore.I am very lucky to be still here after over a week of symptoms. So many people end up very poorly, so many people die... I wish I could tell why I never got this high temperature described in articles I have been reading. It seems so unfair, somehow. Why do some people have to suffer so much because of this virus? My thoughts are going to all the NHS staff who died in the past few days. RIP Donna, Melissa, Janice, Becca, Thomas... It is not a joke. I wish I had taken this thing more seriously.
For starters, I hope you don't really have it and if you do, I hope you're one of the many to have a very mild case and completely recover.
The numbers don't back your concerns about dying (though I get feeling that way while you're going through it). Out of 100 cases bad enough to get tested, 2 people die. IF you're not older or have underlying health conditions, there's a good chance you'll be fine. Most people that get severe cases seem to get the really bad symptoms days 5-7 (according to an article I read). The only thing that gives me some pause is not knowing if there's additional concerns for healthcare workers if they are exposed either for a longer time or multiple separate times. I don't know that there's enough data for a conclusion there.
#388 Re: The Garden » Covid 19 » 317 weeks ago
Back on topic and I don't think too controversial other than it shows how much things are changing rapidly:
https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articl … UqpC_yUxvc
New study questions the effectiveness of masks against SARS-CoV-2
(snippet from article)
According to a study recently published in Nature and covered by Medical News Today, surgical masks may go some way toward preventing a person with a viral respiratory infection from spreading infectious particles.
However, while the study did look at coronaviruses, it did not account for SARS-CoV-2, as the initial research had taken place before the start of the current pandemic.
Now, new findings, published in the Annals of Internal Medicine, suggest that neither surgical nor cloth masks are at all effective in stopping the spread of SARS-CoV-2.
The research, conducted by investigators from the University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Chung-Ang University Hospital, and Sejong University — all in Seoul, South Korea — involved a group of four participants receiving medical care for COVID-19.
To find out whether — and which — masks could stop the viral particles from spreading, the researchers asked the participants to cough over petri dishes without a mask, while wearing a disposable surgical mask, and while wearing a reusable mask made of cotton cloth.
In each of these three circumstances, the participants had to cough five times. Each time, they did so over a different petri dish.
Finally, the team swabbed the outer and inner surfaces of each mask — cotton or surgical.
They expected to find droplets containing SARS-CoV-2 on the inner surfaces. The question was whether any viral particles had been able to pass through the masks to their outer surfaces.
After analyzing the swabs, the researchers found particles of SARS-CoV-2 on the outsides of both types of mask, suggesting that neither type can contain the virus.
#389 Re: The Garden » Covid 19 » 317 weeks ago
buzzsaw wrote:Off to bed - possible tornadoes overnight and I have a cat that is on death's doorstep, so need to get some rest while I can.
You’re in Tennessee, no? I saw some heartbreaking footage of damage there from overnight storms, particularly Chattanooga? Did you emerge unscathed?
Everything is fine...I think ID might have been closer to the action.
#390 Re: The Garden » Covid 19 » 317 weeks ago
On a plus note, my student loans are paused. We made the payment anyway and will continue to do so unless our situation changes, but it's good that that happened for people instead of them needing to take action to make it happen.
Off to bed - possible tornadoes overnight and I have a cat that is on death's doorstep, so need to get some rest while I can.


