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#471 Re: The Garden » US Politics Thread » 318 weeks ago

buzzsaw wrote:

What do you want mitch?  You want to have everyone sit at home and completely destroy the economy potentially for years at the same time?  Something has to give...since you've been firmly in the stay at home crowd, you can't have it all. 

Why are you never grounded in any sort of reality and living these pipe dreams that sound so good on paper but never work in reality?

3 questions mitchy.  Try giving 3 actual answers instead of deflecting or feigning retardation.

#472 Re: The Garden » Covid 19 » 319 weeks ago

bigbri wrote:
Randall Flagg wrote:

I have serious doubts this was lab created.  It's an incredibly shitty virus if its design was biological warfare.  Less than 2% mortality rate and all of that almost entirely in the elderly and immuno-compromised - not something very effective against your average soldier.  Plenty of other known pathogens with 90+ mortality rates if China wanted to develop something new.

Agreed. I’ve thought this for a while. The only similar theory i’ve entertained is: what if it got out before they were finished  with making it deadlier in some way. I don’t know how bioweapons are made ....

I’m still anxious of contracting it. I’m taking a lot of precautions. I live in a town of 18k, and at last count 13 had it, and they are likely in a hospital in Chicago or elsewhere. Our town has no hospital.

I go out once a week for groceries. I have three teen kids who eat endlessly it seems. I have no face mask per se, but i used my balaclava with my GNR Lies t-shirt tied over it like a bandana. Overkill? I dunno. I buy groceries for my elderly neighbor Bob and certainly don’t want to pass it on to him.

Stay safe everyone.

It's also possible that it's a test to see how it spreads before attaching the more deadly part of it.  There are all kinds of possibilities, but if nothing else hopefully this stops that nonsense about everyone that wants borders secured being racist.

#473 Re: The Garden » US Politics Thread » 319 weeks ago

mitchejw wrote:
buzzsaw wrote:
mitchejw wrote:

Anyone worried about what the stimulus will do to an already terrible deficit?

I assume this just means more borrowing from China, right?

What do you want mitch?  You want to have everyone sit at home and completely destroy the economy potentially for years at the same time?  Something has to give...since you've been firmly in the stay at home crowd, you can't have it all. 

Why are you never grounded in any sort of reality and living these pipe dreams that sound so good on paper but never work in reality?  Fair question given this question and your Bernie love.  Yes, we'd all love people to stay at home for 6 months, then the economy is just reset and everything there is fine.  We'd all love that, but that's not based in reality.  We'd love a society where everybody has plenty and nobody ever needs anything, but that's not based in reality either.

I don’t know what the hell you’re talking about here again. I know the costs. Now I’m asking how we’re going to pay for it.

What are the costs associated with just moving on with life as though nothing is happening?

Please don’t think that the government is giving out the stimulus monies out of the goodness of its heart.

One interesting thing I’ve read is that There is a real concern about all of this is that boomers don’t return to the workforce permanently. I wonder what kind of affects that would have.

English buddy.  I'm sorry if it's too complicated for you, but it's the language we use here.  Every time you have no answer, you pull this same shit.  Answer the fucking question or admit that you're too idealistic to come up with actual solutions for anything.

#474 Re: The Garden » US Politics Thread » 319 weeks ago

buzzsaw wrote:
mitchejw wrote:
buzzsaw wrote:

What do you want mitch?  You want to have everyone sit at home and completely destroy the economy potentially for years at the same time?  Something has to give...since you've been firmly in the stay at home crowd, you can't have it all. 

Why are you never grounded in any sort of reality and living these pipe dreams that sound so good on paper but never work in reality?  Fair question given this question and your Bernie love.  Yes, we'd all love people to stay at home for 6 months, then the economy is just reset and everything there is fine.  We'd all love that, but that's not based in reality.  We'd love a society where everybody has plenty and nobody ever needs anything, but that's not based in reality either.

???

I have no idea what this means. Surely you see irony in borrowing from China to handle a crisis that originated in China.

You have no idea what this means?  It means that you have a choice...either keep people home and have a stimulus to spark the economy or you send people back to work.  You can't keep people home and not do a stimulus...that option doesn't exist in reality. 

This is exactly what I was talking about since the beginning...now you're starting to see it (hopefully; the alternative is you're just being a dick).  Is the cost of keeping people home worth the gain?  I believe the jury is still out on that one...

I don't really care how they address the stimulus issue as long as they do and it bails out the people as much as it does the corporate side.  Eventually we'll just go bankrupt on China anyway and there's not much they can do about it.

Ok, that last line is just being snarky.

#475 Re: The Garden » US Politics Thread » 319 weeks ago

mitchejw wrote:
buzzsaw wrote:
mitchejw wrote:

Anyone worried about what the stimulus will do to an already terrible deficit?

I assume this just means more borrowing from China, right?

What do you want mitch?  You want to have everyone sit at home and completely destroy the economy potentially for years at the same time?  Something has to give...since you've been firmly in the stay at home crowd, you can't have it all. 

Why are you never grounded in any sort of reality and living these pipe dreams that sound so good on paper but never work in reality?  Fair question given this question and your Bernie love.  Yes, we'd all love people to stay at home for 6 months, then the economy is just reset and everything there is fine.  We'd all love that, but that's not based in reality.  We'd love a society where everybody has plenty and nobody ever needs anything, but that's not based in reality either.

???

I have no idea what this means. Surely you see irony in borrowing from China to handle a crisis that originated in China.

You have no idea what this means?  It means that you have a choice...either keep people home and have a stimulus to spark the economy or you send people back to work.  You can't keep people home and not do a stimulus...that option doesn't exist in reality. 

This is exactly what I was talking about since the beginning...now you're starting to see it (hopefully; the alternative is you're just being a dick).  Is the cost of keeping people home worth the gain?  I believe the jury is still out on that one...

I don't really care how they address the stimulus issue as long as they do and it bails out the people as much as it does the corporate side.  Eventually we'll just go bankrupt on China anyway and there's not much they can do about it.

#476 Re: The Garden » US Politics Thread » 319 weeks ago

mitchejw wrote:

Anyone worried about what the stimulus will do to an already terrible deficit?

I assume this just means more borrowing from China, right?

What do you want mitch?  You want to have everyone sit at home and completely destroy the economy potentially for years at the same time?  Something has to give...since you've been firmly in the stay at home crowd, you can't have it all. 

Why are you never grounded in any sort of reality and living these pipe dreams that sound so good on paper but never work in reality?  Fair question given this question and your Bernie love.  Yes, we'd all love people to stay at home for 6 months, then the economy is just reset and everything there is fine.  We'd all love that, but that's not based in reality.  We'd love a society where everybody has plenty and nobody ever needs anything, but that's not based in reality either.

#477 Re: The Garden » US Politics Thread » 319 weeks ago

mitchejw wrote:
buzzsaw wrote:
mitchejw wrote:

Ok now that Trump is parroting the tool Illinois governor...what does that make him?

The way i see it...the president didn’t lead so the governors had to choose for themselves. That’s why you have 20 different ways of dealing with the same thing.

Different responsibilities bro.  Trump isn't just responsible for NY or Illinois.  His job isn't to lead them.  He's not parroting your tool of a governor.

There's a reason NYC gets the middle finger when they demand ALL of the resources the feds have at their disposal.  That's not how any of this works.

My governor is leading...Trump aint doing shit but holding press conferences that look more like QVC for Trump to pat himself on the back and hawk more MAGA merch bro....

Trump so far hasn't been responsible for shit...so at least we're on the same page about that.

Your irrational hatred is showing mitch, be careful.

You have no idea what's going on and you have no idea who is responsible for what, you're just like every other ignorant fuck using this as an opportunity to show your political ignorance.  You've done it bro, you've done it!

#478 Re: The Garden » US Politics Thread » 319 weeks ago

mitchejw wrote:

Ok now that Trump is parroting the tool Illinois governor...what does that make him?

The way i see it...the president didn’t lead so the governors had to choose for themselves. That’s why you have 20 different ways of dealing with the same thing.

Different responsibilities bro.  Trump isn't just responsible for NY or Illinois.  His job isn't to lead them.  He's not parroting your tool of a governor.

There's a reason NYC gets the middle finger when they demand ALL of the resources the feds have at their disposal.  That's not how any of this works.

#479 Re: The Garden » US Politics Thread » 319 weeks ago

Dr Frank has a scientific take on things, but you won't see anything about this in the mainstream media.  I'm not sure his data is any better than anyone else's because bad data in means bad data out, but it seems he's been pretty spot on so far.  It's okay to be optimistic.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________
"100,000+"

As you know, I am not listening to the news, nor reading the media. I am living and breathing the data. But there are many conversations going on here so I see things. And people send me PM's asking me questions (maybe five hundred today?). And my wife even came down to tell me what the president said. She was worried too. So I feel I must address it.

**Stick with the data.

**Stick with the math.

There are a few ways to think of this. Let's do a Fermi calculation.

1) As of today, the country has about 4,000 deaths. But we're peaking, or close to it. You can see it in the data. So double that = 8,000 deaths total for the country.

2) But let's assume bad stuff happens, and that the tail of the peak is twice as bad... 4,000 + 8,000 = 12,000 total deaths for the country. Hard to imagine that anything could as bad as New York, but there it is.

3) New York is the worst single situation in the country, everything else pales in comparison. New York is close to peaking. That projects to 3,500 deaths. But say I'm wrong, and it's twice that = 7,000 deaths.

Deaths in the rest of the country now exceed that of New York. But there are more variables. Let's say it's twice as bad as New York's doubled value = 14,000 deaths.

That's 14,000 + 7,000 = 21,000 deaths.

4) We're halfway through the epidemic. That's why Trump is saying he wants us to social distance until May 1. But let's say he's wrong, and double that. That means we are only 1/3 through the epidemic. 4,000 x 3 = 12,000.

So, now we do Fermi:

(8,000 + 12,000 + 12,000 + 21,000) / 4 = 13,250 deaths.

Some people prefer to use the geometric mean:

(8 x 12 x 12 x 21)^ 1/4 = 12,500 deaths.

These are at least reasonable numbers. Of course, we all hope they're really high. Seems like the models are tracking to something around 8k, but it is hard to tell with all these mini-spikes from nursing care facilities.

Now, think about that number, round it up to 15,000 to make the math easy. That is four New York Cities (projected deaths). Where are we going to find all those deaths?

We are already halfway through the epidemic, and the entire state of California is tracking to only 300 total deaths. No other state in the union has even broken three hundred yet, and only seven have broken 100. And many of the states have already peaked and are fading. Most of the breakout infections now are in rest homes (tragic), and there will be a lot of deaths from that, but those are limited populations. Not like a densely populated megalopolis.

And speaking of megalopolis, where is Los Angeles so far? They are the worst area in the state of California with a whopping 54 deaths.

100,000? Nah. It's an order of magnitude off.

#480 Re: The Garden » US Politics Thread » 319 weeks ago

mitchejw wrote:
buzzsaw wrote:

Depends on how you define take it seriously.  Most people that get it are fine.  Most people that get a bad case end up fine.  A very small percentage (and nobody knows that number with such limited testing) die and the overwhelming majority of them have underlying health conditions. 

I work from home anyway and don't get out of the house too often, but we did fly to Chicago in late February to visit my grandmother after my grandfather passed away...that was before all hell broke loose.  I've been fighting allergies for weeks with highly elevated pollen levels. I've respected the social distancing and haven't gone out other than to go for walks or going to the grocery store.  When I do both, I stay away from people.  I'm a germaphobe, so I am always washing my hands.  It's not out of the realm of possibility that I have the virus, but a weak case of it.  I'm not coughing; I'm not sneezing nor do I have a runny nose.  No headache, no fever, no anything really other than some difficulty breathing, which is most likely allergy related.  Regardless, we stay home unless one of us needs to go to the store, and in that case it's me over my wife because of her underlying health issues.  I think I'm taking it seriously; you may say because there's a small chance that I could have it I should be quarantined.  If we're being honest, there's a small chance anyone could have it. 

Here's your chance mitch...tell me I'm being irresponsible.

Calling the Illinois governor a tool and then calling your opinion a fact is irresponsible. You never recognized my point, which is Trump is taking his lead from proactive governors NOW. For nearly three months he stuck his head in the sand. Now that IS a fact. If you're one of those that thinks the economy is more important than a pandemic, then we're never going to agree on anything.

Other than that you sound like youre taking all the precautions I'm taking.

The Illinois governor is a tool.  That wasn't an option.  Trump isn't taking his lead from governors.  You haven't been paying any attention, have you?  As I said and you ignored, his job isn't the same as a governor's job. They have different responsibilities.

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