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#601 Re: The Garden » Covid 19 » 334 weeks ago

bigbri wrote:

The overall death rate in this country right now is significantly higher than most any other time in recent years. This is not w covid death rate, but death rate for any reason.

“Total deaths in seven states that have been hard hit by the coronavirus pandemic are nearly 50 percent higher than normal for the five weeks from March 8 through April 11, according to new death statistics from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. That is 9,000 more deaths than were reported as of April 11 in official counts of deaths from the coronavirus.

The new data is partial and most likely undercounts the recent death toll significantly. But it still illustrates how the coronavirus is causing a surge in deaths in the places it has struck, probably killing more people than the reported statistics capture.”

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 … total.html

Instead of overcounting covid death rates, this suggests an undercount. Unless someone has another idea why overall death rates have spiked?

Also, the IMHE model consistently has been proven wrong. It is drastically conservative in its death predictions.
https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020 … e-pandemic


This. Focus is starting to turn to overall death rate here in the UK as reporting of Covid-19 deaths becomes harder and harder. These numbers will be multifacted of course - how many deaths are happening because people are fearful about going to hospital? - but even when factorying the expected deaths from those diseases in a year in to the counts, it appears there are a number of extra deaths that are most likely Covid.

The collation of death statistics has become a clusterfuck it seems in most countries, few have an accurate picture of the scale of what is happening.

#602 Re: Guns N' Roses » New leaks are coming? (nope) » 335 weeks ago

Where on leakth.is? Can't find it.

#603 Re: The Garden » Covid 19 » 336 weeks ago

Buzz, one thing we do know NOW is hospitals in outbreak areas are overwhelmed right now. To stop other areas going the same way, we have lockdown.

We have a virus circulating that we still don't know a whole lot about, what we do know is it is similiar to SARS and MERS, since it comes from the same family of viruses as they do and causes similiar symptoms, but with a higher infectivity rate and lower fatality rate. Given that, the measures taken so far seem prudent. Better safe than sorry.

Folk need to remember that the people dying face down on hospital beds suffocating as their lungs decay aren't just numbers. They meant something to some people. And for a lot of people they don't want themselves or those they care about to die that way.


You keep arguing that these measures are extreme because we don't know enough. If we wait until we know enough it's potentially catastrophically late.

#604 Re: The Garden » Covid 19 » 337 weeks ago

Buzz, chill out. You can disagree with the approach that the majority of first world countries are taking to this and express that without doing it in such an aggro way all the time.

Major countries don't typically decide to go for the mother of all recessions (or possibly depressions) over half baked hoaxes. When faced with what information was available at the time AND factoring in all the known unknowns (and considering the potential for unknown unknowns) most countries made a decision to lock shit down. Time will tell if it was the right decision.

To be honest I am deeply worried about the havoc this virus wrecks in countries and communities that aren't capable of responding the way ours have - and then even more worried about the affect that will have long term globally.

#605 Re: The Garden » Covid 19 » 337 weeks ago

Some in here need to chill out and stop being so aggro when people disagree with them. Can have different opinions without resorting to just hurling insults at people and can debate without trying to run the other person down as you do it.

Also, for those citing "science" for everything just keep in mind that "science" isn't definitive. One learned person's take may differ wildly from the other - that's normal.

I see folk not just here but in the news now wondering if lockdowns are an overreaction. I also, see them still comparing death rates with he flu or other "influenza like" diseases. The key issue is, and always has been, health care and death management capacity. Most countries don't really have much extra headroom and this disease is leading to an additional spike in deaths on top of all those that normally occur.

For those citing the health of the economy: I can't imagine it would do that great if a brand new virus tore through the populations of the developed world rapidly with much more massive spikes in hospitalisations all over the place. Seems like the choice is fuck the economy and save lives or fuck the economy and lose more lives.

#606 Re: The Garden » Covid 19 » 341 weeks ago

I am now remote too for the forseeable... this is gonna be an interesting few months - if not longer.

#607 Re: The Garden » Covid 19 » 342 weeks ago

Randall Flagg wrote:

Unless you’re elderly or have a weak immune system, yes, it’s hysteria. 18k people have died in the US this flu season. Most don’t get their flu shot and don’t alter their behavior. It’s going to suck if you get it, but unless you’re in those specific demographics, it won’t be any worse than the flu. Wash your hands and don’t go out in public if you’re sneezing and coughing. I assume you’re European, so you have no reason to be going to work if you’re sick.

I'm not worried so much about myself, my worry is I could potentially spread it to my elderly relatives.

Comparing it with the flu isn't right - it's not the real issue, although it has a greater chance of causing complications than the flu does and appears to be more infectious. The real issue is the strain it puts on health services (number of beds, number of ventilator machines etc.) and the spike in those needing hospital care that is outside the norm of what all organisations would typically forecast.

#608 Re: Guns N' Roses » Will new music be released in 2020? » 346 weeks ago

Wagszilla wrote:

Call me a conspiracy theorist but it’s hard to believe that the Rolling Stone article wasn’t prompted by the record company to put pressure on GN’R.

Regardless, the tour announcement prior to an album announcement if music is indeed coming doesn’t make sense to me.

It’s no surprise the gigs are 1/2 to 2/3 empty.

Is there a link to this article? Feel like I've missed something.

#609 Re: Guns N' Roses » NA Dates going up on facebook for 2020 » 347 weeks ago

So I am going to a show in the UK and a show in the US and I gotta say... you guys in the US get shafted on these ticket prices and these "service fees".

£280 total for two tickets in the pit in front of the stage in the UK, roughly $365 - still a lot of money but not too bad.
$616 total ($112 of which was "service fees") for two tickets in a seated section behind the pit, roughly £472. Total joke. Would have been same price for the pit but they sold out ridiculously fast.

#610 Re: The Garden » US Politics Thread » 350 weeks ago

Not even arguing the morality of killing this guy Randall, just saying the difference between taking out Osama or other incidents you mentioned and this is this one is this creates an international diplomacy issue to deal with. It possibly wasn't the wisest move (time will obviously tell) and that risk would/should have been known beforehand.

Less about supporting previous admins and more just assessing whether it was the right move from a foreign policy point of view.

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