I see what you are saying but that's very little leverage in today's market.

The gamble is entiely against the label.

Look at it like this:

Label can try to hold GNR randsom to it's contract to force a reunion. That process might take another decade. In that time they make ZERO from holding that option. All the while the rest of their business hemorages money. Even if they succeed in pushing Axl into it - there's no guarentee the other parties would agree (although they probably would) and then as you said...they're potentially dealing with reduced demand by 2023 or whenever they play this trump card - both from age and whatever "damage" the current band does to the legacy with 1000 classic hits shows before then.

Alternatively they can pocket a quick buck now - and if they're clever - renegotiate to protect their reunion "first rights" too. The world isn't waiting for CD2 - but it will still outpeform mid card things they take a gamble on - so it's easy money for the label.

So if you're the label it's known fast money now vs an unquantifable potential sum of money at unknown date - with a very strong likely hood of NEVER comming to fruition.

And that's where the power comes in. What leverage is prohibiting GNR recording in the current market place anyway?

All revenue comes from live.

If Axl NEVER recorded as GNR again who stands to loose more from that.

Label will be holding a contract that makes them no money.

While Axl can just play occasional private parties and remain a millionaire.

Touring used to be done to promote an album, which is where people made their money, but now albums are loss leaders to promote a new tour - and it's a method of promotion Axl could do without - if he really needs to promote a new product when classic hits get old - nothing stopping him from just playing new songs live like he did at RIR3 - imagine the excitment when every tour its the hits and new songs. No need to record them really.

In the 1980s they would have had Axl check mate with that recording contract.

But in the modern music industry - they're holding a very weak hand.