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Re: A McCain landslide in November??
I'm with Big Bri on this, it's wayyyyy to early to begin predictions & start wrapping it up. This election could be the opposite IMHO & a landslide for Obama. Just look at the Mississippi election 2 weeks ago, and the 2006 election where a mixed race Senator almost won Tennessee and you can see the Bible Belt states are losing their grip on the GOP. Those are hardcore GOP states, so who's to say anything about Fla, Mich, & Ohio. Florida is presumed to go Rep, however the state is loaded with retirees, and people who have foreclosed on their house due to the housing bust & now struglling economy. I wouldn't be surprised if senior citizens feel McCain is too old & 2000 was his time, not 2008. Remember, these people (Seniors) are the generation who felt the hope & promise of Kennedy. Opening talks with Cuba will likely be a 1st term promise in this election (as I think it's time we do anyway). Michigan, due mainly to it's struggling economy I would guess is leaning Dem. If McCain chooses Romney as VP that could help him in that state. But I don't think it'll swing Dems his way, just get more Rep's to vote for him. McCain will be hard pressed to win Pennsylvania as there's a Dem Governor, Dem Mayor of Philly & Dem Mayor of Pittsburgh a Dem Senator & 1 wackjob GOP Senator (Arlen Spector) who's in his final term. Which brings us to Ohio, as of now, could go either way. As BigBri mentioned, the gloves haven't even come off yet. It's still 5 months away. Also, the debates haven't even started yet. Remember Nixon/JFK & how people felt JFK did much better because he 'appeared' better on tv. McCain's a pretty poor, unmotivating public speaker. Obama is a gifted speaker. I agree he talks alot abbout 'what he's going to do' and that could hurt him, but it's a double edged sword.
The states boil down to this, I'm basing it off the 2000 election results, because Obama will likely win NM, & Iowa, which Kerry did not. Fla & Ohio were won by very slim margins. Also, VA could go Dem this year, especially if Obama chooses Jim Webb as VP.
http://www.usnews.com/usnews/news/election/map.htm
These swing states (and others like Wisc etc) are up in the air, but no one's to claim, especially in May?! The debates & campaigning will be huge. Another thing hurting McCain will be lack of heavyweights beside him. Obama will have a team effort of having big name's like Richardson, John Edwards, possibly Ted Kennedy, Pelosi, Bloomberg, Al Gore, John Kerry, and if he's willing, the big guy, Bill Clinton, which could set him over the top. McCain, not so much, will distance himself from Bush, certainly you won't see any of Cheney. Which leaves Romney, Huckabee, Guiliani (whatever happened to him, didn't he used to post on HTGTH 
) & a few senators.
For every case that can be made for McCain at this time, a counter arguement can be made for Obama. This could certainly not only be a win, but a landslide for Obama.
Re: A McCain landslide in November??
Obama landslide scenarios are a pipe dream now. That shit was only thought of when he first yelled change. When he yelled it the millionth time, the only change people started to want is anyone but him.
As far as key states go, if Pennsylvania winds up being key, expect Ridge to be named VP and McCain gets handed the presidency.
If it looks like the female vote is gonna be the deciding factor, Palin is VP and McCain wins. McCain could also nullify the black vote by choosing Powell as his VP.
I actually think California is in play now, and if memory serves me correctly, when a republican wins Cali, they are president no matter what happens in the rest of the country.
Obama a great speaker? Did you see the last debate with Hillary? He was on the verge of tears and could barely speak.
McCain is not a great speaker, but all he needs is one of those Reagan one liners, and Obama is destroyed.
Go ask Carter and Mondale what it feels like to have your balls handed to you on national tv by someone who is "too old for the job".
Re: A McCain landslide in November??
As far as key states go, if Pennsylvania winds up being key, expect Ridge to be named VP and McCain gets handed the presidency.
So we can all get scared when the "Terror Alert" rises up to orange 
.. Then be relieved when it cools back down to yellow 
Powell & McCain would have no agenda for fixing the economy.
Bush only beat Kerry because the American public was dumb enough to fall for shit like "Flip-flop".. That's not going to work again this time around. McCain can't rely on one-liners, he needs solution to the economy, gas prices, and ending the war and the cost associates which is tanking the dollar & therefore the economy. So does Obama as well, but it's not going to come down to silly catch-phrases. If it does this country deserves McCain & the 100 years of decline that will come with it.
Re: A McCain landslide in November??
Powell & McCain would have no agenda for fixing the economy.
They don't need to. The only agenda they need is winning the presidency.
Bush only beat Kerry because the American public was dumb enough to fall for shit like "Flip-flop"
Dumb enough to fall for it?? It came out of Kerry's mouth....
"I was for it before I was against it..."
Obama has similar issues that will come home to roost.
By the way, you vastly underestimate the impact of a killer one liner on our culture. It'll be even bigger now because of the youtube/myspace generation.
Too bad Reagan cant be resurrected and run for a third term. Obama would be sucking his thumb right now.
Re: A McCain landslide in November??
"I was for it before I was against it..."
The majority of people who "were" for the war at first now feel this way. Nothing wrong with reconsidering decisions down the line. It's called hindsight, people do it every day in the business world.
In the single biggest vote of someone's career, would you rather support the guy who reconsiders, and realizes it was a mistake, or for the guy who is stubborn and refuses to admit it was a mistake. And will go forward without looking back no matter how wrong they were?!
Re: A McCain landslide in November??
These people get all kinds of intelligence. If you're changing your mind every time the wind blows, you don't need to be president of the United States.
A flip flopper is the last thing I want in a leader.
At the Iceland summit in 87, Gorbachev offered to dismantle all Soviet nukes if Reagan would abandon SDI. Reagan told him no. Thank God he didn't change his mind 10 seconds later.
The cold war would still be going....
Re: A McCain landslide in November??
James Lofton wrote:"I was for it before I was against it..."
The majority of people who "were" for the war at first now feel this way. Nothing wrong with reconsidering decisions down the line. It's called hindsight, people do it every day in the business world.
except war isnt a business...they should have reconsidered before going into iraq in the first place...now thousands of lives have been lost and billions of dollars have been spent and the US is entering a recession...and for what? where is the biological and nuclear weapns that intellgence said was there? IMO rumsfeld and bush should be tried for war crimes and for entering into a war against the UN's wishes
- Randall Flagg
- Rep: 139
Re: A McCain landslide in November??
The UN authorized it. And the US is under no obligation to follow the will of other countries or a body composed of other countries. The day the US starts doing what the UN tells it to do, is the day you'll see me resign my commission. I don't give a fuck what any other country in the world thinks the US should do. I'll listen to their advice, and respect my allies, but the day Canada, France, Iran and China have a vote on what "we" do is the day my entire lifestyle changes.
Re: A McCain landslide in November??
there was absolutely no reason to invade iraq other than George wanting to get saddam cuz his father wasnt able to do it....so they fabricated false intelligence and from what i recall UN said no and usa said "well too bad we're going anyway cuz they have mobile biological weapon stations"
or some crap like that....and i ask you , what point is the un if countries dont need to abide by their rulings? might as well disband it
The United Nations (UN) is an international organization whose stated aims are to facilitate cooperation in international law, international security, economic development, social progress and human rights issues. The UN was founded in 1945 to replace the League of Nations, to stop wars between nations and to provide a platform for dialogue.
There were also serious legal questions surrounding the launching of the war against Iraq and the Bush Doctrine of preemptive war. On September 16, 2004 Kofi Annan, the Secretary General of the United Nations, said of the invasion, "I have indicated it was not in conformity with the U.N. charter. From our point of view, from the charter point of view, it was illegal."
