First off, welcome back!

AL East--pretty much agreed it's going to be some combo of NY, BAL, BOS.  The shocking thing about the Yankees is how much production they've gotten from guys who I thought were finished (Wells, Overbay, and Hafner).  I think Boston probably is in the best shape to make a big splashy move near the trade deadline.  I feel sorry for the Rays because they will have to trade David Price at some point during the next two years.  Toronto's playing better but the hole they dug themselves is too much.

AL Central--Tigers will win.  White Sox are treading near .500 which is the worst thing for them since they need to be selling (Peavy, Alexi Ramirez and maybe Dunn) like crazy.  Twins and Royals have basically gone into the toilet in May.  Twins should have traded Willingham last year.  Indians are winning because the rest of the division stinks.  They've been having major bullpen issues the past week.  I could see them hanging in there though.

AL West--Rangers and A's battling it out.  I wouldn't neccesarily count out Oakland winning the division title.  Angels have too many holes (rotation, shitty bullpen, inconsistent lineup) to really contend.  The best they can do is hover around .500.  M's have fallen back to earth after a surprising April.  Same old story though--decent pitching but a dreadful offense.  Astros are battling the Marlins for the worst record in baseball.

NL East--I think the Nats will eventually overtake the Braves.  BJ Upton has a line of .146/.232/.247 this year.  I believe you correctly called out what a horrible signing that would be.  Add in Dan Uggla and Jason Heyward's sub .200 batting averages and you have the makings of a below average offense.  The Phillies are a tough one for me to figure out.  The pitching (aside from Halladay) has been very good but the offense has struggled.  Dominic Brown has been carrying them lately 10+ HR in May.  Utley is on the DL again.  They're basically hoping that Ryan Howard produces more than he has.  They don't really have much ammo to trade for upgrades.

NL Central--I hate the Cards too but I can't really see them surrendering a playoff spot.  At worst they'll get the 1st WC.  The only weakness I see is that their middle relievers are pretty poor.   I think the Pirates might actually break the "streak" this year.  Their problems are at SS, RF/1B.  I expect them to make a move to improve the offense.  Don't know if it'll be enough because the rotation is bound to regress at some point.  They have the best bullpen in the division though.  Oh also Hurdle is bound to cost them some games with his shitty managing.  I don't really see any big holes with the Reds.  They're pretty solid all around and will probably snag a WC.  I suppose could always fuck up their rotation with his pitcher overuse.  I didn't expect the Brewers to be this horrible.  The Cubs are in obvious sell mode and really are just praying that Garza's arm doesn't fall off so they can peddle him off for more prospects.  Cubs could probably trade another of their starters.  Szamardja has pitched very well.  The Cubs problem is that they have so many fucking holes on offense so that kind of offsets the solid starting pitching.  At least they had the good sense to dump Marmol from the closers spot.

NL West--another competitive division.  Didn't really see the Rockies getting off to that start.  They also have Roy Oswalt in the minors.  I could see the Diamondbacks being a contender the entire year since they have good starting pitching and more waiting in the wings in the minors.  Closer has been an issue for the D'backs.  Figure the Giants will find a way to win the division since Sabean always seems to make a move to help the team.  The Dodgers dug themselves too much of a hole although they are playing better.  Also of note:  Adrian Gonzalez has never been the same player since shoulder surgery in 2011.  The Padres have been a pleasant surprise.  They won't win the division but they have surpased expectations.