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#1151 Re: The Garden » Covid 19 » 314 weeks ago

If Thanos told you to design a virus that targeted a specific population or he'd snap his fingers, who wouldn't immediately pick COVID-19?

#1152 Re: The Garden » Covid 19 » 314 weeks ago

Here are the real numbers (and by real I mean the numbers where they still assume without a test that someone had COVID) from the state of PA.  Now tell me why me, a 38 year old male in good health, needs to be terrified indefinitely that this disease will take me out? 


96562932_2701967163416465_3206837816889704448_o.jpg?_nc_cat=111&_nc_sid=825194&_nc_ohc=3ChAn7CL-xcAX_TdxB7&_nc_ht=scontent-ort2-2.xx&_nc_tp=6&oh=39ddd23e05ffbc014af23386f3b6f8d1&oe=5ED7ACD5

#1153 Re: The Garden » Covid 19 » 314 weeks ago

PaSnow wrote:
Randall Flagg wrote:

Shouldn't you be demanding Schiff release his documents that show no collusion, or should we continue to trust him too.

January 19th, 2021:  It all gets released.  EVERYTHING.


January 18th, 2021:  trump pardons EVERYONE.


I guess you're not aware the Intel Chief is telling Schiff to release them or he will.  It's Schiff's call and he's been refusing to release his transcripts since June.  But I'm sure you knew that, you do a very good job of staying informed.  Now what did a shooting of a man in Georgia have to do with COVID?

#1154 Re: The Garden » Covid 19 » 314 weeks ago

PaSnow wrote:

Rednecks:  The government can't tell me what to do!  That infringes on my rights.

Also Rednecks:  Listen to what I tell you to do!!  I have a shotgun & a pickup truck.


https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ahmaud-arb … ing-video/

This is COVID-19 related how?  Did you forget where you're posting, or just need an outlet to vent to insinuate those who don't agree with you are rednecks, and are culpable for what may have been a murder (or what may have been a thief getting shot for attacking someone).  Shouldn't you be demanding Schiff release his documents that show no collusion, or should we continue to trust him too.

#1155 Re: The Garden » Covid 19 » 314 weeks ago

TheMole wrote:

Around 75k deaths in the US so far. The IHME has revised its model and is now projecting an overall death toll of 135k by beginning of August.

So, now that the whole "no worse than the flu argument" has been proven baseless, how many people need to die for you pro-economy folks to accept the lockdown measures you're railing against? 100k? 200k?


So we should just stay indoors and continue to wreck the economy because the grandmother you dumped off at a nursing home may die a year earlier?.  How many talking heads on cable news need to tell you that Biden was elected and everything is ok now, before you "live in fear folks" acknowledge we can return to life.  It doesn't matter that over 2/3 of "COVID" deaths aren't actually COVID, but I'm sure the number being projected is right this time. 

You can immediately tell what part of the world someone is from based on their outlook on this.  "OH NO!  The same amount of people who die to the Flu each year are dying from this weird Chinese virus that seems to effect almost exclusively the elderly and the immunocompromised by like 95%.  I sure as fuck didn't get my flu shot last year cause I'm a total twat and was definitely the asshat who went in public coughing and sneezing, before it became woke not to.  But we have to lockdown everything until Chris Cuomo or Nancy Pelosi tell me I'm safe.  The world was be a giant pillow and we have to fuck everyone over to protect the grandma we haven't seen in 12 months because she's not lucid and it makes me sad to see hundreds of 80 year olds wait for death in the home we left her.  As long as one person might die, pay me 52k a year to sit on my ass."

Please continue to live in fear and think as an entitled, bubbled millennial.  The world isn't a place where the lions lay with the lambs.  And you've made it clear that you're fine staying indoors indefinitely, regardless of how bad the figures are you quote, or how they compare to a "tuesday".  I bet you don't eat spicy food and wear a helmet with pads when you ride a bicycle too.

How long do we have to destroy the economy before we focus efforts to protect the vulnerable?  Do you have an answer, or is it stay indoors and get that 52k a year forever?

#1156 Re: The Garden » Covid 19 » 314 weeks ago

TheMole wrote:
buzzsaw wrote:
TheMole wrote:

And, as predicted, we've surpassed the 67k mark today.
Also, about that so called "peak", I feel a better description might be "plateau". A peak implies a downward trend, and looking at the data for the past two weeks does not show a downward trend at all. The country seems to be hovering between 1500 and 2000 deaths per day fairly consistently.

Well, they are constantly adding to the data, so sure.  I mean the data is flawed data.  Garbage in, garbage out.

That's a non sequitur, the question was directed at Flagg. Since he was drawing seemingly odd (to me) conclusions from the very same data, I'd be interested in understanding how he came to those conclusions.

My county has had its 2nd day with no deaths.  You can track daily deaths and they're dropping, hence we hit our peak over 2 weeks ago.  Since the majority of American deaths occurred in the month of April, and they're slowing, it seems pretty easy to see which models were right and which were way off.  The IMHE model has been the most accurate, and presently predicts 72k deaths in the US by August.  That's 5k more than our dead today, out of a country of 330 million.  The numbers are there, the death rate is coming to a crawl.  I don't know what else you're expecting from me other than the data doesn't support us hitting 100k dead, let alone millions.  And that's with the the CDC saying they're counting influenza and pneumonia deaths in their COVID statistics.  Look up what the most common cause of death is among the elderly, and we're going to attribute all of the deaths in nursing homes to COVID-19?    85k elderly folks die of the flu and pneumonia annually according to the CDC:  https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/ahcd/agin … ersons.pdf

The IMHE is saying we'll hit 72k in this summer, which about 60k  is those over 65.  The CDC is counting every influenza and pneumonia death as a COVID-19 death, and we're still under the annual total of deaths due to infections diseases. 

https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-C … /9bhg-hcku

Here the CDC is saying 37k known COVID-19 deaths in the US as of 01 MAY.  Not the 67k figure, or the hundreds of thousands of deaths far left sites are pushing to built the anti-Trump narrative, and that's what it is.  Tanking the economy and screaming Armageddon serves one purpose, and it's not the best interest of the average American. 

So I don't know what model you're referring to, but even if you use the "garbage" statistic of current death counts, we're way below what was predicted, and we're still #2 in the world behind Germany. 

I'm saying 3 things:

1.) The current means of calculating COVID-19 deaths results in its figures being over represented rather than the opposite
2.) The US is doing a pretty good job all things considered, and better than any other western world save Germany (who isn't inflating their deaths like the US is)
3.) Now that we've flattened the curve and even in NYC, not a single person died due to lack of medical equipment, it's time to start opening back up.

That third one requires ample testing and action from LOCAL authorities.  But in a nation that has 330 million people and stretches 3k miles across, the idea of the federal government dictating measures that apply to everyone is absurd.  Again, Pittsburgh has now gone 2 days without a single death.  We shouldn't be on lockdown because some Indian Reservation in New Mexico is having a surge in cases. 

If the data supports a a continued lockdown, I'll support a continued lockdown.  But it doesn't.  72k deaths is approx .02% of the American population.  I don't think the fear of that number, especially when it's entirely directed at the elderly and immune compromised, warrants destroying the economy and our standard of living because some people are "scared".  I've done what was asked of me and have only left my home once a week to get groceries the past 7 weeks.  I'll continue to do so.

Studies are now coming out saying anywhere from 10-25% of the population has the antibodies of COVID.  Let's go with the most conservative estimate and say 10%.  10% of America or 33 Million people have been infected with COVID.  67k have died.  67k out of 33 million infected is a .02% mortality rate.  You know what else has a .02% mortality rate in the US annually?  The Flu.  The disease the same  "experts" pushing the "millions dead" narrative mock Trump for comparing COVID to.

#1157 Re: The Garden » Covid 19 » 315 weeks ago

Glad to see Atari Legend is using his moderator powers to turn this into his personal blog.

#1158 Re: The Garden » Covid 19 » 315 weeks ago

TheMole wrote:
Randall Flagg wrote:

We're projected to have 67k dead from COVID by August, slightly more than the flu in 2018.

Where are you getting that? A simple extrapolation of the data shows that you're likely to hit 67k deaths in the next three or four days...


The only site that’s aggregating all data. The one being run by Bill Gates. This one :

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

You’re right that we’re going to hit 60k in the next week or so, but you’re ignoring that the US peaked 15 days ago.  And as I've said repeatedly, trusting unvetted numbers from people (like my State) that were/are counting people they assume had COVID without a test, isn't an accurate statement.  The CDC says they're counting pneumonia and influenza deaths in their COVID numbers.  It's linked a couple posts up for your reading pleasure.  Germany and other nations aren't doing that, and our mortality rate relative to infected and population is still #2 in the world.

#1159 Re: The Garden » Covid 19 » 315 weeks ago

bigbri wrote:

Flu deaths, Trump said (and this article says he is right), are incredible to believe. They are.

This Scientific American story (I don't know their politics. I assume it'll be written off as leftist, but again they agree with Trump) says the CDC's flu death reports are not what they seem. It's interesting, if true.

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/ob … o-oranges/

Scientific American wrote:

"The question remains. Can we accurately compare the toll of the flu to the toll of the coronavirus pandemic?

To do this, we have to compare counted deaths to counted deaths, not counted deaths to wildly inflated statistical estimates. "


The article says we can't rely on the CDC's flu death numbers, because they use statistical estimates to count dead.  The author rightly suggests that these models can be misleading.  Then goes on to use the same models as a representation for COVID deaths, while deflating the amount of Flu deaths because said models can't be trusted.

"we have to compare counted deaths to counted deaths"

You're aware that the "counted deaths" from COVID aren't deaths that are attributable to all known people with positive COVID tests, let alone deceased patients who tested positive for COVID-19, and died of ailments attributed solely to "COVID".  As the author says:

"In fact, in the fine print, the CDC’s flu numbers also include pneumonia deaths." 

They're doing the exact same thing with COVID deaths in the United States.  If you die and they suspect you had COVID-19, those numbers are being reported as "counted deaths" for COVID. 

Here is directly from the CDC's site on how they count COVID deaths:

CDC wrote:

The provisional data presented on this page include the weekly provisional count of deaths in the United States due to COVID-19, deaths from all causes and percent of expected deaths (i.e., number of deaths received over number of deaths expected based on data from previous years), pneumonia deaths (excluding pneumonia deaths involving influenza), pneumonia deaths involving COVID-19, influenza deaths, and deaths involving pneumonia, influenza, or COVID-19;

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

So I totally agree with the author that using a statistical model with the same certainty as a "counted death" is inappropriate.  I just think that same criticism should be leveled at the total count of COVID "counted deaths" from the United States that use the same metric.  That's why I said in my first post in 2.5 weeks that we're still #2 in the world for mortality, behind Germany, who doesn't define "COVID Death" the same in the United States, and who are more accurately reflecting those that died from COVID versus those that " include pneumonia deaths".

If your point was to criticize me and "Trump" for using the idea that the real impact from COVID and the Flua re similar. by arguing the best known death count for the Flu released from the CDC shouldn't be compared with the shaky and ever decreasing and increasing number of COVID-19 deaths in the United States, I don't think you succeeded.  Both figures suffer from the variability of definition and cause.  But if one of the top 2 disease authorities in the world state a number is X, I'm going to take their word over it rather than some doctor who called a few friends and asked them if they saw someone die from the flu.  I just asked my fiance across the room if she's ever seen someone die of COVID, and she said "no".  I'll see if she can call some of her friends around the country and find out if they've seen anyone die from COVID who she knows will say "no" as well.

#1160 Re: The Garden » Covid 19 » 315 weeks ago

Here are the deaths in Pittsburgh as of today:

Deaths by age group:

• 40-49: 1 (1%)

• 50-59: 2 (2%)

•60-69: 11 (13%)

• 70 and over: 72 (84%)

https://www.post-gazette.com/news/healt … 2004290091


But tell me again that this is a major threat to anyone not a senior citizen with chronic health issues.

65/86 are from nursing homes.  So 75% are the extreme elderly and infirm in nursing homes (cause why would you be in a nursing home if you were healthy and capable), but keeping the entire country/state/city locked down rather than put extreme procedures to protect the most vulnerable is the smart move.  But yea, I'm involved in "douchebaggery" because I want to rely on the numbers and not irrational fear.

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