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#1321 Re: The Garden » Awkward story » 510 weeks ago

I feel your pain. Those moments can stay with you for years too, so not like it's "over" after you're out of there. At least your tolerance builds up.

It's funny, I didn't even consider it was the fact he used gay that could have turned her off. I must be letting bombs all the time I don't even know about. 14

#1322 Re: The Garden » The Randomness Thread » 510 weeks ago

Man, you'd be resetting your life every 5 minutes doing that. Never get out of primary school.

Me I'd rather be something like Superman. Do whatever you want to do because nobody can hurt you. Could take a job as a crime fighter or something. Work 2 days a week.

#1323 Re: The Garden » 2016 Presidential Election Thread » 510 weeks ago

And this to cheer you up.

Most Swing State GOP Insiders Want Trump to Drop Out

A vast majority of Republican Party activists, strategists, and operatives in swing states want Donald Trump to drop out of the presidential race, according to a Politico survey.

"I'd rather take our chances with nearly anyone else than continue with this certain loser who will likely cost the Senate and much more," an anonymous New Hampshire Republican told the magazine. Seventy percent of those surveyed said they want The Donald to end his presidential campaign and be replaced with another GOP candidate. Few of them think this is a real possibility, however.

Only 2 percent said Trump is likely to drop out, while 40 percent said it was unlikely but possible, and 58 percent insisted that The Donald will stay in until Election Day.

Nevertheless, the insiders insisted that Trump will do huge damage to the party. "The effect Trump is having on down-ballot races has the potential to be devastating in November," said a Florida Republican. "His negative image among Hispanics, women and independents is something that could be devastating to Republicans."

Trump has given no indication he is considering dropping out, but media reports say Republicans are considering the rules in case it were to happen. According to a vacancy rule, the 168-member Republican National Committee would select a new nominee, and could reconvene the national convention, although that seems unlikely.

Insiders suggested a few potential replacements, such as House Speaker Paul Ryan — whom one Florida operative called "the only one who can unite the party — and Ohio Governor John Kasich. Texas Senator Ted Cruz (the runner-up in the primary) and Indiana Governor Mike Pence (Trump's running mate) would also be likely options.

But connected swing state Republicans aren't kidding themselves — they compared the likelihood of The Donald dropping out to winning the Powerball. Another consideration would also hold them back from advocating this goal publicly.

"While I would love for Trump to drop out and anyone else to take the mantle, that kind of talk will only harden his supporters," an Ohio Republican confided. "We cannot let them think we stole this from them. There has never been a better example of 'damned if you do, damned if you don't.'"

While most of those surveyed say their preference was a Trump exit, a few insisted they actually want him to stay in the race. They argue the party would heal better after The Donald loses in November.

"Trump won the nomination. He should lose fair and square," a Michigan insider said. "Only then will the party base have to reckon with what they've done."

"I want Trump to feel the blame for his loss, not put it on the doorstep of 'the Establishment,'" an Iowa Republican declared. He predicted that rumors of The Donald dropping out will only get louder. "Talk of Trump dropping out will reach a fevered pitch next week, when his poll numbers bottom out. We need to brace ourselves."

Hillary Clinton currently leads Donald Trump by 6.7 percent in the RealClearPolitics average. She also leads (by 6.6 percent) in a four-way race including Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein.

https://pjmedia.com/election/2016/08/05 … -drop-out/

#1324 Re: The Garden » 2016 Presidential Election Thread » 510 weeks ago

You're gonna love this one ID.


#1325 Re: The Garden » 2016 Presidential Election Thread » 510 weeks ago

This reminds me of "Unskewed polls" that also predicted "liberal bias" (what a joke) in polling data, and that Romney would most certainly win. This is what happens when you reside inside the bubble you look for confirmation bias. Fox News trotted out similar claims that most polls were off "By a 'factor' of 3-4"  and that Romney would actually win by "4." I find it interesting that this Longroom site claims to have predicted the 2004 election, but wasn't even registered until January 2008.

Well, you had pollsters giving Hillary a 20 lead in Michigan. Five thirty eight gave her a 99% of winning, then Bernie took it. So it happens.

Predicting the bias is harder, but when the majority polled are democrats it seems likely some skewing will occur. The 04 and 08 election are probably calculated after the fact, assuming these guys are serious.

I'd also ask why the polling data is suddenly "skewed" when it clearly showed Trump would win the primary? It's wasn't wrong then, why is it suddenly off now? They're the same polling companies.

I assume the primaries mainly polled republicans? Of course with Trumps big lead in those they could have been off as well, idk.

#1326 Re: The Garden » 2016 Presidential Election Thread » 510 weeks ago

In a summary by LongRoom Unbiased polls it shows Donald J. Trump leading his rival Hillary Clinton by 0.9% as of 8/01.

After the rocky week that Trump was having with the entire Khan family controversy it seems that of the 6 polls conducted this week by LongRoom, USC-Daybreak, YouGov, CBS, CNN, and Morning Consult Trump holds a lead in 4 of them.

For clarification, LongRoom conducts their polls a bit differently than traditional polling places, they compensate for the over sampling of Democrats and Republicans and use accurate representations of area demographics to skew the results in a more unbiased manner. LongRoom has a long history of being fairly accurate with polls from past elections, you can read up on their full methodology including sources for the demographics here. It is obviously best to take these new poll results with a grain of salt.

BIAS-1.png?resize=768%2C374&ssl=1

https://inquir.io/2016/08/05/donald-tru … 6Oo9jXfIuU

#1327 Re: The Garden » 2016 Presidential Election Thread » 510 weeks ago

Cramer wrote:
polluxlm wrote:

He was leading the polls last week! I know you hope to God this is over, but it's not even close to being so.

He was leading in general match up. Not state polling, which he never has, not even close. We've been through this before. General polls are meaningless, while the EV numbers do not bode well for Trump.

I don't "hope this is over" but I am able to read. Data is very bad, and Trump's mouth is even worse. His party is in full freak out mode, Republicans are jumping ship, refusing to endorse, criticizing him publicly, and many are now voting for Hillary. Even the Koch brothers want nothing to do with him. He's finally hit the tipping point.

He's doing everything he can to weasel out of the debates because he knows he's going to get his ass handed to him.

So yes. I can see that this is a man who is unwilling to take advice. Unwilling to change his behavior. A man who consults solely with...himself. So he will continue this path of destruction until he loses, spectacularly.

How is any of that different to before? He's been running his mouth and polling bad since the beginning. All we heard was "no chance".

Since he started his campaign all the Trump predictions have been wrong. He was never going to win the primaries, and if he did, Clinton would win easily. Now he's the official nominee and running a lot closer to Hillary than anyone would have thought. Last week he managed to get half the country to say they'd vote for him, something that would never ever happen according to a lot of experts a few months ago. 

The man already did the impossible, and he did it listening to his own advice. No, he probably isn't likely to win considering the nature of the electorate map, but he wasn't likely to win the primaries either. Yet he did, facing virulent opposition from both inside and outside. I wouldn't underestimate him. This election is breaking all the rules.

#1328 Re: The Garden » 2016 Presidential Election Thread » 510 weeks ago

He was leading the polls last week! I know you hope to God this is over, but it's not even close to being so.

#1329 Re: The Garden » 2016 Presidential Election Thread » 510 weeks ago

WikiLeaks: Hacked Emails Prove Hillary ARMED JIHADISTS In Syria - Including ISIS

Fresh off of throwing the Democratic National Convention into turmoil after proving that party officials had conspired to sabotage Bernie Sanders' campaign, WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange announced that he has some even more damaging material in his trove of hacked emails — this time involving Hillary Clinton pushing to arm jihadists in Syria, including ISIS.

As Gateway Pundit's Jim Hoft notes, in her testimony in January 2013 during the congressional Benghazi hearings, Clinton denied under oath having any knowledge of the weapons trade program with Syrian rebels that took place a year before the Benghazi attack. Now Assange says that in the collection of hacked emails his group has procured, 17,000 are "about Libya alone," and among them is proof that Clinton "pushed" for weapons to be sent to "jihadists within Syria, including ISIS."

"So, those Hillary Clinton emails, they connect together with the cables that we have published of Hillary Clinton, creating a rich picture of how Hillary Clinton performs in office, but, more broadly, how the U.S. Department of State operates," Assange told Democracy Now Tuesday. "So, for example, the disastrous, absolutely disastrous intervention in Libya, the destruction of the Gaddafi government, which led to the occupation of ISIS of large segments of that country, weapons flows going over to Syria, being pushed by Hillary Clinton, into jihadists within Syria, including ISIS, that’s there in those emails.There’s more than 1,700 emails in Hillary Clinton’s collection, that we have released, just about Libya alone."

Proof that the Democratic presidential nominee helped arm ISIS? Not exactly the kind of "experience" the Clinton campaign has been touting. And, of course, this is just more evidence that Clinton's 2013 Benghazi testimony was riddled with lies.

During that testimony, Clinton told Sen. Rand Paul that she didn't have "any information" on any weapons transfer program with insurgent groups in Turkey or elsewhere run out of Libya. Here's the transcript (video below):

    Paul: My question is, is the US involved in any procuring of weapons, transfer of weapons, buying, selling anyhow transferring weapons to Turkey out of Libya?

    Clinton: To Turkey? I’ll have to take that question for the record. That’s, nobody’s ever raised that with me.

    Paul: It’s been in news reports that ships have been leaving from Libya and that they may have weapons. And what I’d like to know is, that annex that was close by, were they involved with procuring, buying, selling, obtaining weapons and were any of these weapons being transferred to other countries? Any countries, Turkey included?

    Clinton: Well, Senator you’ll have to direct that question to the agency that ran the annex. And, I will see what information was available.

    Paul: You’re saying you don’t know?

    Clinton: I do not know. I don’t have any information on that.

http://www.dailywire.com/news/7960/wiki … es-barrett

#1330 Re: The Garden » 2016 Presidential Election Thread » 510 weeks ago

Trump isn't your typical conservative though. In this election him and Bernie have more in common than with the rest of the field. The pendulum is definitely looking for change as evidenced by both their surprisingly successful campaigns.

The main difference from the past are the demographics. Problem for Trump is that a large portion of voters will never vote Republican. On the other hand he's got about as weak an opponent as he can get and his supporters are definitely more enthusiastic. Low turnout for Hillary could be what puts him over the top.

But we are treading new ground, so I agree old models won't necessarily tell us much.

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