You are not logged in. Please register or login.
- Topics: Active | Unanswered
#11 Re: The Garden » 2016 Presidential Election Thread » 461 weeks ago
In a summary by LongRoom Unbiased polls it shows Donald J. Trump leading his rival Hillary Clinton by 0.9% as of 8/01.
After the rocky week that Trump was having with the entire Khan family controversy it seems that of the 6 polls conducted this week by LongRoom, USC-Daybreak, YouGov, CBS, CNN, and Morning Consult Trump holds a lead in 4 of them.
For clarification, LongRoom conducts their polls a bit differently than traditional polling places, they compensate for the over sampling of Democrats and Republicans and use accurate representations of area demographics to skew the results in a more unbiased manner. LongRoom has a long history of being fairly accurate with polls from past elections, you can read up on their full methodology including sources for the demographics here. It is obviously best to take these new poll results with a grain of salt.
fivethirtyeight addressed this today:
You should also be skeptical of other attempts to reweight pollsters’ data. One website, LongRoom, claims to “unbias” the polls using “actual state voter registration data from the Secretary of State or Election Division of each state.” The website contends that almost every public poll is biased in favor of Clinton.
Think about what that means: The website is saying that a large number of professional pollsters who make their living trying to provide accurate information — and have a good record of doing so — are all deliberately biasing the polls and aren’t correcting for it. Like many conspiracy theories, that seems implausible.
I’d also point out that election offices from different states collect different data. Some states don’t have party registration; other states don’t collect data on a person’s race; some states collect data on neither. There are some companies that try to fill in missing data for each state, though it costs a lot to get that data. Isn’t it more plausible the people who get paid to know what they are doing are right, while some anonymous website on the internet with unclear methodology is wrong?
#12 Re: The Garden » 2016 Presidential Election Thread » 461 weeks ago
Trump suggests the "second amendment people" could shoot Clinton to prevent her from appointing judges and Hillary needs the diazepam?? It's funny how Trump's and his Trumpeters insults towards Clinton actually fit him to a tee.
#13 Re: The Garden » 2016 Presidential Election Thread » 461 weeks ago
Those are two completely different situations. On the Trump video the SS comes up to protect him from an assailant, with Hillary they step in because she's about to have a fit for some reason and they have to coach her back.
Where do you come up with this? All I see in both videos is the SS surrounding the candidates for some reason that can't be seen on camera. Trump reacts with fear while Hillary stands there composed the whole time. Hillary is also told she is okay and to keep talking.
#14 Re: Guns N' Roses » On this day in 1988... » 461 weeks ago
It's a tossup between Nightrain and Jungle for me. In the past it would have been Nightrain hands down, but I think Jungle slightly edges it out now.
#15 Re: The Garden » 2016 Presidential Election Thread » 462 weeks ago
You mean like this?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hNelSuoHzlI
#16 Re: The Garden » 2016 Presidential Election Thread » 462 weeks ago
This guy predicted 49 of 50 states last time. He's giving Trump a small edge to win if the election was held today.
Hillary had a huge swing after the convention. He's now giving Hillary a 83.8% chance to win if the election was held now.
#17 Re: Guns N' Roses » Stay of Execution Album Cover » 463 weeks ago
That's incredible. You are really talented and creative!
#18 Re: The Garden » 2016 Presidential Election Thread » 463 weeks ago
Is an oligarch really an outsider, though?
#19 Re: The Garden » 2016 Presidential Election Thread » 463 weeks ago
Acquiesce...you got me intrigued on this Jill Stein candidate. Haven't paid any attention to these independent candidates running. Mainly focused on Trump and even though I didn't support Sanders, I loved how he refused to be bought off.
Why are you supporting her specifically? Just as a protest vote or does it go much deeper?
Hi James. I may have been a bit unclear with my previous post. I am not personally supporting Jill Stein. Most of the Bernie supporters I follow on social media are supporting her, however.
#20 Re: The Garden » 2016 Presidential Election Thread » 463 weeks ago
If Gary Johnson can pick up the Bernie supporters after the leaks, he can make an impact. Don't know that he can win, but all you giving this to Hillary are going to shit yourselves if she can't win the Bernie supporters back somehow.
All of the Bernie supporters that I follow are supporting Jill Stein. Although 90% of us are voting for Hillary according to a poll.
Pew asked those consistent Sanders supporters whom they support in the general election. Ninety percent said they back Hillary Clinton.