If anyone is interested in polling methodology this is a great article.
https://goodauthority.org/news/election … weighting/

https://www.realclearpolling.com/latest-polls

If people are interesting in polling, that's the spot to check. Every poll is posted there.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/ … -vs-harris

If you check national polling, (in the link above,) right now Harris is up 0.1%. Essentially a dead tie. At this time in 2016 Clinton was polling 5.1% ahead. In 2020 Biden was up 8%. Therefore, from a national polling perspective, Trump is doing much better than in 2016 and 2020.

That said, there are polling errors which tend to be correlated. Pollsters have to weigh polls according to expected demographic turnout. Which is a guessing game (or an art if we are being generous) for them. If a surprising amount of non-college educated whites vote, then Trump will win by a lot. If an unexpected amount of college educated whites turnout, then Harris should outperform her polls and win. Polling firms do the best they can to account for expected turn out but they can be wrong (Trump out performed polling in 16 and 20, Dems out performed in 22.) BASICALLY it is possible that pollsters have ADJUSTED turnout models from 2016 and 2020 to try to NOT underestimate Trump again in 2024... in which case, the race really is a toss up. But they may have also NOT done a good job of it, so Harris could be way ahead (if they over compensated) or Trump could be way ahead (if they under compensated.)

In addition, state polling in PA, GA, NC, AZ, NV, and other swing states is probably more relevant than national polling numbers. You can find that polling data in the first link I posted.

IMHO if you asked me to go off gut feel, based on the polling and the general sentiment I have been feeling, Trump should win handily. Though he may still lose the popular vote. Trump in 2016 and 2020 was considered an evil threat and a social taboo... I would be extremely careful about telling people where my political opinion stood, I tended NOT to... now in 2024, it seems like most people are over that. Yes, many people still hate Trump as a human being... but I don't think it is a taboo to support him now, nor to be sympathetic to him. Note, I am in California.

I think with people like Elon and other tech people (including crypto people) openly supporting him, he has a shot that he didn't have in 2020.

If Kamala wins I won't be totally surprised but expect it to be bad if it happens 5 days after election day from "new mail in ballots." She may still win that way and it may be 100% legitimate... but a lot of people will suspect shenanigans given how close the polls are right now.

The best outcome is a blowout for either side (including the popular vote win) ON election night, or at most the day after election day. The longer it takes to get results, the worse it will be for the country and for the perceived legitimacy of the election (IMO)

Finally, I am a layperson polls follower... I have done so since Ron Paul's 2008 run... so it is an interest of mine but I am far from a professional. Cheers.

I already voted Trump FYI/full disclosure.

His statement made me laugh lol. Definitely not getting anything new from the band haha

I am a Trump voter and have every reason to want to believe Rasmussen but… I take them with a grain of salt. I suspect their overtly stated preference for Republicans may bias the way they weigh their polls. I’d like for them to be right but… there are a lot more polls indicating Harris is doing well right now.

I just listened to 2/3rds of the Elon/Trump interview on Twitter. Nice 2HR discussion. I would like to see Kamala do a long form interview but I really doubt she would. To me this is like… a huge disqualifier. I am not a big Obama fan, nor Hillary especially… but at least they could hold their own in conversation. I feel like it’s a form of accountability to the voters and citizens of this country.

I know there are people out there that would never vote Trump and so Kamala is protected in a way… but I do wonder if her lack of direct communication with voters will end up harming her with independents/swing voters.

Who knows. I still think Kamala wins. This time Trump at least appears to be trying to build meaningful alliances with people like Elon… not commenting on Elon as a person, but on his power/influence. Trump can’t expect to win without *some* elite alliances.

Any thoughts? My main thought is, "I wonder how many people watched the debate?"

I didn't hear many people talking about it beforehand. But I've also been off work and laying low/not socializing. Biden looked awful. I think that the debate format, which was supposed to hurt Trump (no audience, no interrupting from other candidate by shutting their mic off,) ended up helping him a lot. Biden seems most effective at calling Trump a liar and beating him in chaotic shouting matches... when he has 2 minutes to talk freely his cognitive decline is clear. Trump is better when he isn't baited into shouting matches, especially with Biden.

I think Trump started strong and got weaker during the debate but I don't know if that mattered all that much since Biden was struggling so hard.

Anyway I still think Biden wins in November mysteriously... but who knows.