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#481 Re: The Garden » Taliban control of Afghanistan on the 20th Anniversary of 9/11 » 246 weeks ago
Seems like it was a case of either hunker down and commit to however long it takes to get Afghanistan to a sort of Pakistan level of stable (anyone who ever thought it would be like a mini America level of stable was out of their minds) or to cut losses. Seems like Trump and then Biden went for the 2nd option.
Still a clusterfuck in the execution though.
I think that's exactly right. My friends who are still in the Army and have been to Afghanistan in the past couple years are upset by this. Not necessarily at Biden (or Trump), but because they spent years of their lives in this nation dodging bombs and bullets to train and support the Afghani's, and from their point of view, the Afghani Army didn't uphold their end of the deal. We can all go Thomas Aquinas and try to find a single event as the root of everything, but western powers have known for years that the Afghani government wasn't ever going to stand on its own. Trump brokered a cease fire, but that cease fire was completely based on the notion the US would leave. The moment that commitment appeared untrue, American (and British) soldiers would have been killed. That would have forced further deployments which just start the cycle all over again.
I hate that people think they can reinvent the wheel and what has been true for millennia. No Army has ever come into a hostile nation, put in a new form of government, and everyone went back to being happy. They had to keep boots on the ground to display their supremacy. It's what all the empires of Europe have done, as well as every other corner of the globe. The only exception to that rule might be post WW2 Germany, and there's a lot of considerations and exceptions that need to be given to make that true. American forces are still in Germany 70 years later. And Germany wasn't a backwards illiterate society before 33, so reversing 12 years of Nazi rule wasn't as challenging as overturning centuries of culture and way of life.
#482 Re: The Garden » Taliban control of Afghanistan on the 20th Anniversary of 9/11 » 246 weeks ago
Randall Flagg wrote:The Taliban lacked air coverage completely, and were significantly outarmed and outnumbered by the Afghan military. Saying the Afghan Army fell because they lacked mechanics to keep their airforce operating is ignoring that countless Afghan pilots have flown out (deserted) of the country in that aircraft during the last week. I'm not defending Biden's withdrawal plan, but if you outnumber and outarm the enemy, and lose without a significant fight, you don't get to blame that on anyone but the Army who failed to setup a simple perimeter defense. Riddle me this, how many Taliban and Afghani soldiers died in the preceding 11 days before the fall of Kabul?
80k Taliban versus 300k Afghani Soldiers. And the Taliban had a decisive victory without a formal military structure and intelligence support from NATO nations.
As you are someone who has served I would actually like to hear your insight on how important the aerial reconnaissance and air strikes to how the Afghan forces were trained to fight the Taliban? Was reading this article this morning and from what I've been able to read over the past few weeks it really seems like they were setup to fail.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/25/opin … -army.html
Like if they know they've been sold down the river and that their government has been as well, is it not understandable that they fold as the cause they're fighting feels hopeless?
Either way all aspects of this - from the terms of the withdrawal, the extent of it and the final evac operation - seem like they've been botched.
It's a complicated issue, and I'm by no means an expert on air support or the terrain and tactics used by Taliban fighters. But I am very well versed in COIN and supply chain support, as well as the C&C systems used to monitor vehicle movement and personnel location.
The systems we use to manage our C&C and supply chain are almost exclusively manufactured by General Dynamics. I don't know who they're currently allowed to sell to outside of the US, but when I was in it was essentially limited to UK and Australian forces. Those are the guys I worked with the most, and I have the utmost respect for British and Aussie soldiers.
I provide that context because there wasn't an option to leave US Military equipment with our classified systems in them. If those systems fall into Chinese or Russian hands, you've created the potential for them to find an exploit and completely compromise or negate our C&C systems.
So the idea that the US would ever leave those systems to the Afghani's is preposterous and isn't something anyone in any administration would have considered. Here's a big secret, the US's military is awesome because we have the best supply chain in the world. An Army isn't worth the weapons it has if their soldiers aren't fed and protected from the elements. The same issue Afghanistan had is the same issue the Iraqi Army had. Corruption runs deep in these nations, and their entire perception about teamwork and national unity is fundamentally different than our own. When I was in Iraq, we had to keep Americans at major fuel sites, because the Iraqis would steal and barter with their fellow soldiers for resources. It didn't matter that this Iraqi convoy had orders to move from Irbil to Mosul, and needed to refuel at mid point. The Iraqi officer in charge of the fuel site wanted something for himself in order to turn on the pumps to fuel the trucks of their own military. The same issue is evident in Afghanistan. They lack a central command structure and their entire government and military structure is corrupt. So yes, the Americans leaving removed the only control in place to keep the Afghani's from fucking themselves over with their own corruption and greed. But there's never going to be a time in the next 20 years where that wouldn't be the case.
This general and people discussing it are talking out of both sides of their mouth. Trump is bad because he gave a date for withdrawal, and that emboldened the Taliban he says. Biden is bad because he left in the middle of night with no warning, and that sudden departure emboldened the Taliban he says. The reality is the Afghan Army was never capable of functioning like a 1st world military. Think of the difference in soldier competency. Every American enlisted man has a high school degree, and every Officer has at minimum, a bachelor's degree. Contrasted with Afghanistan which has an overall literacy rate of 38%. Helicopter pilot training in the US Army lasts a year, and you need around 300 flight hours after graduation to qualify as a primary pilot. My last 2.5 years in, I was a Cyber Defense Officer and spent 10 months being trained on that. I had many "allied" Middle Eastern officers in my class, and it was a running joke how incompetent these "allies" were. They didn't care, often didn't even come to class, and they didn't need to pass anything because their presence was nonsense pushed from State about building up our allies so a flag officer or secretary could brief that the US Army was training allies in Cyber Defense. Contrast that with the Russian Officer who attended the Basic Officer course with me, and that guy was a fucking rock star. He was more educated and trained on military tactics than any of our West Pointers.
So yea, the US stepping away revealed the Afghani Army for what it truly was; a broken, unorganized, undisciplined, corrupt boondoggle. But the notion the US would ever leave its primary C&C systems there for Afghani use is a non-starter. And yes, the US removing its logistical liasions with the Afghan Army forced the Afghani's to coordinate supply movements on their own. But since 2011, the primary mission of US forces was to train the Afghani Army for this moment, and they collapsed in less than 2 weeks. They still had more bodies, more weapons, and better training than all but the few remaining Taliban leaders who were trained by the CIA in the 80s.
So I disagree with the notion that were setup to fail. They were setup for success for the past 10 years, but you can lead a horse to water, but you can't make them drink. Any assertions that a lack of US logistical support is the primary reason for the Afghani's failure completely ignores that Afghanistan by its own societal issues was completely inept and unwilling to defend their nation. We can all pat ourselves on the back for living in western democracies that preach egalitarian values, but the Afghanistan people didn't grow up in an environment where that was reinforced through 12 years of state sponsored education. 2/3 of the country can't even read. Most Afghani soldiers were "volunteers" from the same villages that Taliban rules from. They joined the Army for a guaranteed meal and chance at some kind of income. They don't really care who leads from Kabul, because it's as abstract to them as who sits in the seat of power in Sri Lanka to all of us. Same shit, different day.
#483 Re: The Garden » Current Events Thread » 246 weeks ago
misterID wrote:Until Christmas?? Man, that's awful. We're arguing about masks right now. If folks don't want to get vaccinations, okay, but they're clogging up hospitals.
This is an important. It doesn't matter if you live in a red or blue state, the health care system is getting swamped and can't handle the patient overload from the unvaccinated assholes. I mean these people are on ventilators and shit and sucking up resources because they DIDN'T get a vaccine.
Meanwhile, if I need to get some procedure done at the hospital I have to wait and suffer because I chose to do the right thing. Makes no sense.
Where are you getting that hospitals are swamped and can't perform procedures? I work for one of the largest hospital systems in the US, and my soon to be wife (24 more days!) is a provider at our flag ship hospital. Even if ICU beds were at capacity, and they're not - one hospital in a major urban center does not a region make - it has nothing to do with normal procedures. Last April when the US Medical System essentially ended all elective procedures because of COVID fears, yea, it sucked to get something a MD didn't tell you was fatal immediately. But we're far from that point. No one is being denied elective procedures, and we're not storing dying patients in the halls. If you have a urology appointment, the only way that's impacted by COVID is if your Operating Room gets taken by a priority. And that's true every day of week.
Get the vaccine and it's not going to be an issue. But these aren't healthy, young people going into the ICU and ER today. Look at the numbers, it's almost entirely geriatrics, as it's been the entire time of COVID. Quit buying into the hysteria put forth my a media who needs your fear to keep you glued to their readouts.
#484 Re: The Garden » Taliban control of Afghanistan on the 20th Anniversary of 9/11 » 246 weeks ago
And he was 5 hours late for that speech.... not looking good
The consequence of having a media that steps over itself to provide you with good press and positive spin. This is the first time Joe Biden has faced a media asking him tough questions.
Starts with the nonsense the House went through today, then blames Trump for his botched withdrawal.
No questions taken.
#485 Re: The Garden » Current Events Thread » 246 weeks ago
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/pol … 244854002/
Midterms are 14.5 months away, and the election another 38, so this means nothing. But this is the first non-rasmussen poll to look at Biden since the fiasco in Afghanistan. A ten point in the negative swing is huge. Pelosi bought herself some more time with her Infrastructure bullshit, but when Sinema and Manchin tell you the 3.5 trillion isn't getting their vote in the Senate, you have to wonder why she pays any attention to the Squad at all. It's not like their voter base is going to swap to a GOP candidate. And it's not like the progressives won't primary one of their own to the detriment of the party (see AOC). Pelosi's the 2nd most disliked politician in America (behind McConnell) so I don't know what machinations she has going on. Virtually a zero percent chance she is the speaker come January 2023, so I have to wonder if this isn't her last parade before calling it quits.
#486 Re: Guns N' Roses » GNR Release 'Absurd' Single » 246 weeks ago
ABSURD vinyl / single release confirmed by Fernando via MyGNR just now.
Bodes well.
Any word on if it'll have anything on it besides Absurd?
#487 Re: The Garden » Taliban control of Afghanistan on the 20th Anniversary of 9/11 » 246 weeks ago
Randall Flagg wrote:James wrote:My guess....
He posts a lot on a forum that censors profanities and it became a habit to do it so he could bypass the censor.
Now it's a reflex.
Nah, dude is from Alabama. I'm guessing Southern Baptist opposition to using profanity.
Lol, Roman Catholic… nice theory though, ha!
DAMN!
#488 Re: Guns N' Roses » GNR Should Do A Rolling Stones cover.... » 246 weeks ago
I'd love to hear Sympathy live.
#489 Re: The Sunset Strip » Charlie Watts Dead at 80 » 246 weeks ago
elevendayempire wrote:James wrote:I know they technically had plans to continue the tour but I have a feeling this is the end of the line.
They always said if one of the core group dies(Mick, Keith, Charlie) there is no Stones.
They said that, but Mick Jagger is the hardest-nosed businessman in the business. The Stones will carry on until him or Keith drops, I guarantee it.
Maybe.
Couple problems....
Charlie is loved by the fans. This isn't Bill Wyman or Ron Wood dropping dead.
There will be a fan backlash to any sort of continuation of the Stones.
The media is going to bring up their old comments and may go negative. The Stones...and more specifically Jagger...does not like negative press.
Their peers are going to weigh in on this. It might get ugly.
This is a dicey situation. Like I said, the only way around it might be marketing the upcoming shows as a tribute to Charlie....and next year some sort of farewell tour or residency.
Maybe, but tickets were sold over a year ago and all of this is rescheduled. How many people are gonna try to sell their tickets cause Charlie isn't behind the kit (and anyone going knew he wouldn't be). Die hards might make a stand, but just like Guns, people really care about the singer and lead guitar player. Mick and Keith will be there.
#490 Re: The Garden » Taliban control of Afghanistan on the 20th Anniversary of 9/11 » 246 weeks ago
Randall Flagg wrote:Off topic, but why do you choose to spell profanities incorrectly? We all know the word you intend to use, it appears to be the correct word on quick glance by your design, and no one is offended by it?
My guess....
He posts a lot on a forum that censors profanities and it became a habit to do it so he could bypass the censor.
Now it's a reflex.
Nah, dude is from Alabama. I'm guessing Southern Baptist opposition to using profanity.
