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Smoking Guns
 Rep: 330 

Re: 2016 Presidential Election Thread

Smoking Guns wrote:

I don't see anyone other than Trump able to beat Hilary.

Kasich would be a good to great president I think. He is the most qualified I think. He has more experience than Hilary.

slcpunk
 Rep: 149 

Re: 2016 Presidential Election Thread

slcpunk wrote:
PaSnow wrote:

Nahhh, never happen. Trumps gotta go toss-up state for his VP.  Either Florida (which is why I'm surpised Rubio attacked him so hard. I thought he was gonna cede to the fact he'll become Trumps running mate.  (Young, likeable, upstart, Latino & Florida). But I guess Rubio's advisors just told him to go All In for the nom. Otherwise I read the Fla Governor, the SC gov (woman), and maybe Ohio (Kasich, must be why he's staying in the race, to get better name recognition).

To be clear, I wasn't saying that Christie would be his Veep (or wanted to be), but rather what career politician on the right would be willing to endorse Trump at all. It's a risky endeavor, especially since many don't see Trump as a conservative. And if Trump were to run and then lose, they could be punished later on for going against the grain.

I agree with what you said in regards to swing states. Christie also has the same alpha-male-tough guy persona, which wouldn't make sense as a running mate.

Acquiesce
 Rep: 30 

Re: 2016 Presidential Election Thread

Acquiesce wrote:
James Lofton wrote:

Hopefully we can convince you otherwise before Nov. 8th. tongue

Is there ANYTHING Trump can do that would cause you to give him another chance? Maybe going into more specifics on policies?

He's such a loathsome character to me that I don't think he can do anything to change my mind, but I suppose you never know.

Acquiesce
 Rep: 30 

Re: 2016 Presidential Election Thread

Acquiesce wrote:

Taken together, America is hurtling towards an election that no one wants. The Democratic Party will nominate a candidate most Democrats dislike because their game is rigged. The Republican Party will nominate a candidate most Republicans dislike because their game is not. It's a wonderful advertisement for liberal democracy.

This is a good article about how no one really wants Trump or Hillary.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-vs- … 9547.html#

slcpunk
 Rep: 149 

Re: 2016 Presidential Election Thread

slcpunk wrote:

I don't believe California is in play. I understand and believe your sentiment, but the state may also be drawn up in such a way that would make it nearly impossible to be turned red. Ever been to South Florida? In particular Miami? English is a second language down there. I'll go to restaurants, grocery stores... you name it, and Spanish is the dominant language. The waitress will approach the table and speak to us in Spanish. White flight up to West Palm, Lauderdale etc, but the state has actually gone blue the last two elections.

Hillary can win without Ohio no problem. Ohio is losing it's heft because of states like Colorado, Nevada, Virginia, NC, Wisconsin, and Iowa have been trending blue lately. As I said to you before though, I think Trump could flip many of them red this time.

I'd argue against a blowout election either way. I don't see it happening for either one. But that's today...by October who knows.

Axlin16
 Rep: 768 

Re: 2016 Presidential Election Thread

Axlin16 wrote:
bigbri wrote:

Yeah, landslides are hard to do, but I think short of that, it won't be close with Trump the nominee. A gut feeling. I literally have not met a per s on in real life who doesn't think he's a complete joke.


Then you need to double-check the entire sea of liberals you're hanging out with. Then again you're in Chicago, the liberal/progressive capital of America. Even more so than Seattle or San Fran.



Dude, I haven't met one single person that doesn't think Trump isn't the savior of America. Including Democrats. The only naysayers i've seen are the conspiracy types that, are correct, in pointing out Trump's many evils over the years and are convinced he'd be Mussolini for a President.


This dude will CRUSH Hilary in an election if he stays the course. Notice I said, STAY... I still wonder if all of this was a big scam by Clinton, and that Trump's gonna get that nom, then throw the election. Other than a bullet in Trump... only way Hillary gets elected. Trump might be hated by SOME Republicans, but don't underestimate the amount of Democrats, some i've already talked to, that will vote Trump or will just stay home if Sanders doesn't get the nom. Hillary has a list of enemies and haters that would make Trump blush.

If Trump is a con artist, than Hillary is the Whitey fucking Bulger of politics.


There are people that I know who haven't voted in 30 YEARS... former Democrats mind you... that are registering to vote Trump. That's unheard of. People will be seeing more and more of these record turnouts at Caucuses & Primaries.

slcpunk
 Rep: 149 

Re: 2016 Presidential Election Thread

slcpunk wrote:
Axlin16 wrote:

Dude, I haven't met one single person that doesn't think Trump isn't the savior of America. Including Democrats. The only naysayers i've seen are the conspiracy types that, are correct, in pointing out Trump's many evils over the years and are convinced he'd be Mussolini for a President.


A good amount of registered Republicans loathe this man. Can't stand him. Find him obtuse and obnoxious. Dangerous.

If you think that the GOP will come out en masse to vote for Trump, and at the same time democratic defectors will cross the line from the left side of the aisle to vote for him, you're completely mistaken. If he was going to "Crush" Hillary, polling data would already show that, but it doesn't. On the other hand, polling data consistently shows him obliterating the right wing field, which he has.  However for the GE the latest FOX NEWS poll has Hillary at 47 and Trump at 42. NBC has Clinton at 50 and Trump at 40. Quinnipac has Clinton on top again at 46/41. However, that's today. The election is still a long ways away.

You're also completely ignoring the reality of the electoral map. If you keep NV, OH, CO, IA, FL, NC, VA and WI as toss up states, that still leaves Hillary at 241 walking in the door. And that's me being very generous with WI, IA and NV. (if I included those three, which I'd say is likely, she's at 263 to start)

If Trump does beat Hillary, it's going to be by 30 points or so, and that's really difficult math for the Republican party to pull off.

Edit: and while all the alpha-male posturing, trash talking other cultures and misogyny made him a darling with the GOP, that same narrative will be used against him 24/7 by the DNC. The Latino vote btw is one of the largest growing demographics, who the GOP desperately need, that Trump has completely alienated from the get-go.

polluxlm
 Rep: 208 

Re: 2016 Presidential Election Thread

polluxlm wrote:
Cramer wrote:

The Latino vote btw is one of the largest growing demographics, who the GOP desperately need, that Trump has completely alienated from the get-go.

Are we sure about that? I see a lot of immigrants wanting to protect their current gains. I know if I had moved to a new country and floods of people from my country were giving us a bad reputation I'd want that to stop. As long as Trump walks the line carefully he might not sweep the latino vote, but I can see him doing a lot better than any other GOP candidate. Minorities have always been a problem for them, and I don't see Trump necessarily making it any worse. He won the republican latino vote in Vegas at least.

RaZor
 Rep: 32 

Re: 2016 Presidential Election Thread

RaZor wrote:
Cramer wrote:
Axlin16 wrote:

Dude, I haven't met one single person that doesn't think Trump isn't the savior of America. Including Democrats. The only naysayers i've seen are the conspiracy types that, are correct, in pointing out Trump's many evils over the years and are convinced he'd be Mussolini for a President.


A good amount of registered Republicans loathe this man. Can't stand him. Find him obtuse and obnoxious. Dangerous.

If you think that the GOP will come out en masse to vote for Trump, and at the same time democratic defectors will cross the line from the left side of the aisle to vote for him, you're completely mistaken. If he was going to "Crush" Hillary, polling data would already show that, but it doesn't. On the other hand, polling data consistently shows him obliterating the right wing field, which he has.  However for the GE the latest FOX NEWS poll has Hillary at 47 and Trump at 42. NBC has Clinton at 50 and Trump at 40. Quinnipac has Clinton on top again at 46/41. However, that's today. The election is still a long ways away.

You're also completely ignoring the reality of the electoral map. If you keep NV, OH, CO, IA, FL, NC, VA and WI as toss up states, that still leaves Hillary at 241 walking in the door. And that's me being very generous with WI, IA and NV. (if I included those three, which I'd say is likely, she's at 263 to start)

If Trump does beat Hillary, it's going to be by 30 points or so, and that's really difficult math for the Republican party to pull off.

Edit: and while all the alpha-male posturing, trash talking other cultures and misogyny made him a darling with the GOP, that same narrative will be used against him 24/7 by the DNC. The Latino vote btw is one of the largest growing demographics, who the GOP desperately need, that Trump has completely alienated from the get-go.

Very good points.

I'm Latino, and you're absolutely right, he alienated me, and all Latinos in my community from day one, with his comments about Mexicans being murders and rapests. But... he's been growing on some of us since.  For me it's because he's taking on crony capitalism, for others, espesically my friends in law enforcement, they believe he's the candidate that will be toughest on defense. There are a lot of Latinos in law encouragement and the military - I think he's getting a lot of that vote.

I did find him obtuse and obnoxious at first, but I've found that it's just his debate personality.  When giving one on one interviews, he has a much different demeanor and can be down right charming. 

I also thought he would be dangerous, now I'm covince he IS dangerous.  But not dangerous in the sense that I believe he'll start a war with Russia (in fact at this point he actually seems like the candidate less likely to do that) but dangerous in the sense that he's going to shake up the establishment. Big changes in government can be painful at first, but I'm of the opinion that we must suffer a bit if we're going to save our democracy from crony capitalism.

I'm actually a registered Democrat, and I'm pulling for Sanders here.  But if it comes down to Trump vs Hillary, Trump is getting my vote. 
1. I'm confident he's going to be a centralist republican
2. He's campaigning against crony capitalism, vs an establishment candidate that I do not trust any longer.

On his current poll numbers vs Hillary, they're close, and they have time to improve before the general election.  I expect Trump to lean centralist once he gets out of the primary - I don't think that's a big assumption considering most candidates do and because Trump was a Democrat not so long ago - and that lean will help his numbers. He'll also pick up more votes when he starts hitting Hillary on her e-mails and on Bengazi.

Smoking Guns
 Rep: 330 

Re: 2016 Presidential Election Thread

Smoking Guns wrote:

I don't like how Rubio and Cruz call themselves Latino. Seems so fake. And they are Cubans and so they probably look down on Mexicans anyway.

I am fine with keeping anyone from Mexico and Central America that isn't a criminal and is here already. Build the wall and seal the border.

Every other illegal from China, India, Middle East, Europe etc needs to go. I have a soft spot for the Mexicans, Hondurans, Guatemalens, etc because without them our economy would tank AND they are our neighbors, AND, they are generally great family oriented people!  We really need them. But everyone else from all over the world with expired Visas, time to go.

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