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PaSnow
 Rep: 203 

Re: Covid 19

PaSnow wrote:

If social distancing has had zero impact explain Mardi Gras?  Explain how the countries 3 largest cities (NYC, LA & Chicago) are most impacted, in addition to Washington state, a west coast state.  Except, like a black hole in the middle of the country, lies New Orleans. A city without a large international airport, nor a large asian population or asian tourism vs say NY or SF.

Yet, 5 or 6 weeks ago had essentially the last mass gathering in the country. And they've had a crisis on their hands.



You're right tho, social distancing wasn't worth it.

mitchejw
 Rep: 117 

Re: Covid 19

mitchejw wrote:
buzzsaw wrote:
misterID wrote:
buzzsaw wrote:

Sweden is going to see a spike I'm sure...the question isn't where they end up in 2 days or a week; it's where they end up when it's over.  Remember...if we "flattened the curve" we also dragged this out longer.

This makes no sense. We flattened the curve because of isolation.  It seems only Dr. Buzz, Facebook post PHD, disagrees.

Omg are you fucking dumb.  Go away mitch...adults are talking.

Wtf?!

PaSnow
 Rep: 203 

Re: Covid 19

PaSnow wrote:

I didn't read your prior post cause I just can't take alot of it anymore.  However, I'll do you the courtesy of responding to your 'perfectly valid and ubiased points':

1) The decision to quarantine wasn't wrong; the execution was wrong. Instead of destroying the economy and quarantining everyone, the at-risk population should have been quarantined while the rest of us develop herd immunity. 

- Only 1 person the blame there then, Trump. It was his decision.

2) Flattening the curve doesn't stop coronavirus; it just spreads it slower, which means instead of a spike and then it drops, the virus sticks around even longer meaning even longer quarantining the wrong people.  If we had done nothing, we might be on the downslope already (I say might because there's no way to know).  For all you flattening the curve advocates, do you not understand flattening it also extends it out longer? 

  I think that's EXACTLY the point. The point was to slow it down so we can figure it out & best approach it. Is there a cure, is there a best method of treatment or medicine. Does wearing Facemasks help? Should we attend NBA & MLB games?  Will it go away in warmer weather? You're way sounds like just have all the people that will fall victim to it die as soon as possible & get them out of the way so we all can move on.  Which, fine that's your thoughts but again president Trump did not make the decision that matches your views. Nobody else made that decision.

3) People have to take responsibility for themselves.  If you're sick, stay home.  If you live with someone or are taking care of someone at-risk, stay home.  Even if you're not sick, avoid visiting nursing homes or other places where there are large groups of at-risk people, because that will slow the spread to the wrong population. 

- That way of thinking caused the Georgia Governor to not think he could pass it onto others even tho he tested positive for it and was spreading it around to others, since he didn't show signs he had it.

4) Mortality rate is somewhere around 2% - that ONLY counts people that have been tested.  Far, far, FAR more people have the virus and no symptoms and haven't been tested.  What that means is the actual mortality rate is ridiculously low...likely much less than 1%.  So while this isn't "the flu" because it spreads so easily, the actual risk to the general public is minimal.  You know, science!

- Of course the mortality rate is only among those tested. That's how it always is. You can't change a variable on Coronavirus yet not change it on other viruses. "You know, science" You can only allow 1 variable in a scientific experiement (2 different viruses) not 2 different ways of describing 'mortality rate'.  Do you really think 2% of the population would die?   There's 8 billion people on this planet. That's 160,000,000 MILLION people.

5) The so-called "experts" admit that they don't know a lot about this virus other than what the data says. They are guessing based on past pandemics and whatever other motivations they may have to keep this in the forefront. EVERY interview I've seen where they are asked specifics, every one of them says they don't know multiple times to questions about the virus.  Because they don't know.  They keep moving the bar because they don't know.  They keep changing advice on things like masks because they don't know.  You guys are throwing out people's opinions as fact when those same people are admitting they don't know and if they aren't saying that, they are lying...because nobody knows.  You know, science! 

- Again, 'they keep changing advice'... yeah, like when the governent said facemasks don't work, then later forced us to wear one. I agree it sounds like you don't want to follow the advice of 'experts', sounds more like you want everyone to move on & just people die off to get rid of 'em.. I can't say I agree with that assessment nor would that have been an ideal plan in mid-March. Seems that's your take on things so I'll just leave it at that and say I disagree.

buzzsaw
 Rep: 426 

Re: Covid 19

buzzsaw wrote:
PaSnow wrote:

I didn't read your prior post cause I just can't take alot of it anymore.  However, I'll do you the courtesy of responding to your 'perfectly valid and ubiased points':

1) The decision to quarantine wasn't wrong; the execution was wrong. Instead of destroying the economy and quarantining everyone, the at-risk population should have been quarantined while the rest of us develop herd immunity. 

- Only 1 person the blame there then, Trump. It was his decision.

2) Flattening the curve doesn't stop coronavirus; it just spreads it slower, which means instead of a spike and then it drops, the virus sticks around even longer meaning even longer quarantining the wrong people.  If we had done nothing, we might be on the downslope already (I say might because there's no way to know).  For all you flattening the curve advocates, do you not understand flattening it also extends it out longer? 

  I think that's EXACTLY the point. The point was to slow it down so we can figure it out & best approach it. Is there a cure, is there a best method of treatment or medicine. Does wearing Facemasks help? Should we attend NBA & MLB games?  Will it go away in warmer weather? You're way sounds like just have all the people that will fall victim to it die as soon as possible & get them out of the way so we all can move on.  Which, fine that's your thoughts but again president Trump did not make the decision that matches your views. Nobody else made that decision.

3) People have to take responsibility for themselves.  If you're sick, stay home.  If you live with someone or are taking care of someone at-risk, stay home.  Even if you're not sick, avoid visiting nursing homes or other places where there are large groups of at-risk people, because that will slow the spread to the wrong population. 

- That way of thinking caused the Georgia Governor to not think he could pass it onto others even tho he tested positive for it and was spreading it around to others, since he didn't show signs he had it.

4) Mortality rate is somewhere around 2% - that ONLY counts people that have been tested.  Far, far, FAR more people have the virus and no symptoms and haven't been tested.  What that means is the actual mortality rate is ridiculously low...likely much less than 1%.  So while this isn't "the flu" because it spreads so easily, the actual risk to the general public is minimal.  You know, science!

- Of course the mortality rate is only among those tested. That's how it always is. You can't change a variable on Coronavirus yet not change it on other viruses. "You know, science" You can only allow 1 variable in a scientific experiement (2 different viruses) not 2 different ways of describing 'mortality rate'.  Do you really think 2% of the population would die?   There's 8 billion people on this planet. That's 160,000,000 MILLION people.

5) The so-called "experts" admit that they don't know a lot about this virus other than what the data says. They are guessing based on past pandemics and whatever other motivations they may have to keep this in the forefront. EVERY interview I've seen where they are asked specifics, every one of them says they don't know multiple times to questions about the virus.  Because they don't know.  They keep moving the bar because they don't know.  They keep changing advice on things like masks because they don't know.  You guys are throwing out people's opinions as fact when those same people are admitting they don't know and if they aren't saying that, they are lying...because nobody knows.  You know, science! 

- Again, 'they keep changing advice'... yeah, like when the governent said facemasks don't work, then later forced us to wear one. I agree it sounds like you don't want to follow the advice of 'experts', sounds more like you want everyone to move on & just people die off to get rid of 'em.. I can't say I agree with that assessment nor would that have been an ideal plan in mid-March. Seems that's your take on things so I'll just leave it at that and say I disagree.

Stopped reading when you blamed Trump in your first or second sentence.  Let me know when you grow up.

buzzsaw
 Rep: 426 

Re: Covid 19

buzzsaw wrote:
PaSnow wrote:

If social distancing has had zero impact explain Mardi Gras?  Explain how the countries 3 largest cities (NYC, LA & Chicago) are most impacted, in addition to Washington state, a west coast state.  Except, like a black hole in the middle of the country, lies New Orleans. A city without a large international airport, nor a large asian population or asian tourism vs say NY or SF.

Yet, 5 or 6 weeks ago had essentially the last mass gathering in the country. And they've had a crisis on their hands.



You're right tho, social distancing wasn't worth it.

Explain what about Mardi Gras?  That people made bad decisions that they were going to make anyway?  I hope I don't need to explain that to you.  You think people don't go out and do what they did if they were told to quarantine?  Maybe a few do, but that crowd doesn't give a flying fuck about anyone ruining their party.

You still aren't at all understanding what I am saying even though I've said the same fucking thing for 2 or 3 months now. 

QUARANTINE THE AT-RISK.  Start there.  Those taking care of the at-risk should be smart enough to self-quarantine.  What happens then?  You have no fucking idea because nobody thought to do that before destroying the economy.

PaSnow
 Rep: 203 

Re: Covid 19

PaSnow wrote:

New Olearns + Mardi Gras + No Quarantine = Crisis
Austin, TX + SXSW + Quarantine/Cancellation = No Crisis

Austin TX Deaths = 7
New Orleans Deaths = 225

Sources:
http://www.austintexas.gov/covid19
https://ready.nola.gov/incident/coronavirus/


Austin TX is 3 times as large as NOLA.

buzzsaw
 Rep: 426 

Re: Covid 19

buzzsaw wrote:
PaSnow wrote:

New Olearns + Mardi Gras + No Quarantine = Crisis
Austin, TX + SXSW + Quarantine/Cancellation = No Crisis

Austin TX Deaths = 7
New Orleans Deaths = 225

Sources:
http://www.austintexas.gov/covid19
https://ready.nola.gov/incident/coronavirus/


Austin TX is 3 times as large as NOLA.

Lol...and completely different crowds.  But hey, facts don't really matter, right?

PaSnow
 Rep: 203 

Re: Covid 19

PaSnow wrote:
buzzsaw wrote:
PaSnow wrote:

New Olearns + Mardi Gras + No Quarantine = Crisis
Austin, TX + SXSW + Quarantine/Cancellation = No Crisis

Austin TX Deaths = 7
New Orleans Deaths = 225

Sources:
http://www.austintexas.gov/covid19
https://ready.nola.gov/incident/coronavirus/


Austin TX is 3 times as large as NOLA.

Lol...and completely different crowds.  But hey, facts don't really matter, right?

Good point. Coronavirus definitely targets binge drinkers moreso than movie fans & rock concert attendees.  roll

buzzsaw
 Rep: 426 

Re: Covid 19

buzzsaw wrote:
PaSnow wrote:
buzzsaw wrote:
PaSnow wrote:

New Olearns + Mardi Gras + No Quarantine = Crisis
Austin, TX + SXSW + Quarantine/Cancellation = No Crisis

Austin TX Deaths = 7
New Orleans Deaths = 225

Sources:
http://www.austintexas.gov/covid19
https://ready.nola.gov/incident/coronavirus/


Austin TX is 3 times as large as NOLA.

Lol...and completely different crowds.  But hey, facts don't really matter, right?

Good point. Coronavirus definitely targets binge drinkers moreso than movie fans & rock concert attendees.  roll

Nope, but they treat the threat differently.  It's like you think everyone is a robot.  people are people.  Not everyone (thank GOD) thinks like you do.  I'm going to see if I can explain things to you in a different way that you're probably more familiar with...I'm sure you'll dismiss it like everything else that doesn't support what you've been indoctrinated to believe, but eventually something may click for you. 

On to the next waste of my time...

buzzsaw
 Rep: 426 

Re: Covid 19

buzzsaw wrote:

Do you watch the weather at all?  Weather science has been around for a long time; technology has grown, but the concepts haven't changed a whole lot.

When they make a forecast, they do so using a bunch of different model runs that all come up with different results based on minor differences in atmospheric conditions.  They don't run one model and use that model; nor do they take the worst model and use that one.  Follow me so far or have I already lost you?

Now some social media people will use that worst case scenario to get clicks, but actual meteorologists (scientists) do not.  You see it in the south a lot when one model run (out of 40) shows a big snowfall. They do this to get attention and to get people talking.

Meteorologists don't do that.  They put together a forecast based on ALL of the models and what the general consensus is. SO let's say one forecast predicts 40 inches of snow in Atlanta.  Is the government going to shut down Atlanta?  Of course not, because 39 runs say it's not going to happen.  But people will be out buying up all the bread and milk just in case while others will be booking hotel rooms to go there just in case it happens. 

Change the snowfall to a hurricane in the summer/fall.  They don't say that the hurricane is going to hit this spot in 5 days or even 3 days because they don't know.  How did they figure out that they don't know?  They were wrong A LOT.  The Weather Channel (the most trusted news source as they say) was caught with their on-site reporter exaggerating wind conditions in a hurricane while people walked right behind them normally.  A trusted news source would mislead people for eyeballs or clicks?  I can't believe it.  /sarcasm

Science isn't exact.  Not the weather, not medicine, not plate tectonics, not insert whatever else you want to insert. There is no history with this caronavirus, so what they have been doing is guessing based on what they've seen so far and what has happened in the past with similar viruses.  The doctors aren't going to some foolproof playbook and saying do this and we'll be fine or if you don't do this you'll all die.  Right?  Can you agree with that?

So they make statements based on best guesses.  Usually they are clear in saying "we think" or "it looks like" or something along those lines when making statements.  Then they get pushed on those guesses and they have to say they don't know - because they don't know.  Dr Fauci (your apparent champion in this) does this too.  He has to because if he doesn't and when something he says turns out wrong (and it will), he loses all credibility.  But CNN or ABC or Fox News or NBC will play a clip out of context because they want to make sure that they cover their agenda and people like you see the clip out of context and suddenly think they are telling you that is THE answer and there is no other answer.

Let's go to medicines now...how come some meds work for some people and don't work for others?  How come some people have side effects and others don't?  Could it be because medicine is an inexact science?  Nothing always works. 

So there's all these things that are inexact sciences, yet the ONLY way to handle this pandemic that nobody has all the answers to is to shut everything down and quarantine everyone...no questions asked.  Am I understanding your logic correctly?  If not, please feel free to explain it more clearly.

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