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mitchejw
 Rep: 129 

Re: Covid 19

mitchejw wrote:
bigbri wrote:

The overall death rate in this country right now is significantly higher than most any other time in recent years. This is not w covid death rate, but death rate for any reason.

“Total deaths in seven states that have been hard hit by the coronavirus pandemic are nearly 50 percent higher than normal for the five weeks from March 8 through April 11, according to new death statistics from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. That is 9,000 more deaths than were reported as of April 11 in official counts of deaths from the coronavirus.

The new data is partial and most likely undercounts the recent death toll significantly. But it still illustrates how the coronavirus is causing a surge in deaths in the places it has struck, probably killing more people than the reported statistics capture.”

Yea I mean...think of what it'll look like from April 11 to May 16. I mean...are we really expecting that things are going to get better in that time frame?

Does anyone really feel confident that now is the time to get everything back to normal? I believe strongly that those in the 'return to normal' camp are delusional. Even those that question any and all death count data are grasping at straws here. Fine...be skeptical, but don't be foolish.

If total death counts is the easiest and most logical comparison to make...then do that.

Sadly, I just don't think it'll matter in the US. People are too rigid and too selfish to hear anything other than, 'I want things back to normal' no matter the destruction it might cause. We're doomed to make sure the fall is even worse yet.

buzzsaw
 Rep: 423 

Re: Covid 19

buzzsaw wrote:
mitchejw wrote:
bigbri wrote:

The overall death rate in this country right now is significantly higher than most any other time in recent years. This is not w covid death rate, but death rate for any reason.

“Total deaths in seven states that have been hard hit by the coronavirus pandemic are nearly 50 percent higher than normal for the five weeks from March 8 through April 11, according to new death statistics from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. That is 9,000 more deaths than were reported as of April 11 in official counts of deaths from the coronavirus.

The new data is partial and most likely undercounts the recent death toll significantly. But it still illustrates how the coronavirus is causing a surge in deaths in the places it has struck, probably killing more people than the reported statistics capture.”

Yea I mean...think of what it'll look like from April 11 to May 16. I mean...are we really expecting that things are going to get better in that time frame?

Does anyone really feel confident that now is the time to get everything back to normal? I believe strongly that those in the 'return to normal' camp are delusional. Even those that question any and all death count data are grasping at straws here. Fine...be skeptical, but don't be foolish.

If total death counts is the easiest and most logical comparison to make...then do that.

Sadly, I just don't think it'll matter in the US. People are too rigid and too selfish to hear anything other than, 'I want things back to normal' no matter the destruction it might cause. We're doomed to make sure the fall is even worse yet.

Here's what you don't seem to want to even try to understand: things might not be that bad in the first place. I haven't seen a single credible source say we haven't peaked.  Deaths are very (VERY) limited to the elderly and those with severe health issues. You'd have the world shut down until there was a cure, but guess what?  There's no cure to most corona viruses...so you'd shut down the world essentially forever.  There's no logic to your thinking at all...it's strictly based on illogical fear that isn't backed at all by the numbers..even the flawed ones. 

If you want to stay home when restrictions start to lift, you are welcome to do so. Nobody is going to force you to come out. We can still protect the sick and the elderly and the impact on the rest of the world has been minimal.  What are you so afraid of?

mitchejw
 Rep: 129 

Re: Covid 19

mitchejw wrote:
buzzsaw wrote:
mitchejw wrote:
bigbri wrote:

The overall death rate in this country right now is significantly higher than most any other time in recent years. This is not w covid death rate, but death rate for any reason.

“Total deaths in seven states that have been hard hit by the coronavirus pandemic are nearly 50 percent higher than normal for the five weeks from March 8 through April 11, according to new death statistics from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. That is 9,000 more deaths than were reported as of April 11 in official counts of deaths from the coronavirus.

The new data is partial and most likely undercounts the recent death toll significantly. But it still illustrates how the coronavirus is causing a surge in deaths in the places it has struck, probably killing more people than the reported statistics capture.”

Yea I mean...think of what it'll look like from April 11 to May 16. I mean...are we really expecting that things are going to get better in that time frame?

Does anyone really feel confident that now is the time to get everything back to normal? I believe strongly that those in the 'return to normal' camp are delusional. Even those that question any and all death count data are grasping at straws here. Fine...be skeptical, but don't be foolish.

If total death counts is the easiest and most logical comparison to make...then do that.

Sadly, I just don't think it'll matter in the US. People are too rigid and too selfish to hear anything other than, 'I want things back to normal' no matter the destruction it might cause. We're doomed to make sure the fall is even worse yet.

Here's what you don't seem to want to even try to understand: things might not be that bad in the first place. I haven't seen a single credible source say we haven't peaked.  Deaths are very (VERY) limited to the elderly and those with severe health issues. You'd have the world shut down until there was a cure, but guess what?  There's no cure to most corona viruses...so you'd shut down the world essentially forever.  There's no logic to your thinking at all...it's strictly based on illogical fear that isn't backed at all by the numbers..even the flawed ones. 

If you want to stay home when restrictions start to lift, you are welcome to do so. Nobody is going to force you to come out. We can still protect the sick and the elderly and the impact on the rest of the world has been minimal.  What are you so afraid of?

I’m afraid that if we go back to normal too soon that this will just start all over again. We have to be very confident that all this sacrifice wasn’t in vain. I’m not afraid for me. I’m afraid for vulnerable family members. I’m also disheartened by the lack of empathy by so many in this country.

buzzsaw
 Rep: 423 

Re: Covid 19

buzzsaw wrote:
mitchejw wrote:
buzzsaw wrote:

Here's what you don't seem to want to even try to understand: things might not be that bad in the first place. I haven't seen a single credible source say we haven't peaked.  Deaths are very (VERY) limited to the elderly and those with severe health issues. You'd have the world shut down until there was a cure, but guess what?  There's no cure to most corona viruses...so you'd shut down the world essentially forever.  There's no logic to your thinking at all...it's strictly based on illogical fear that isn't backed at all by the numbers..even the flawed ones. 

If you want to stay home when restrictions start to lift, you are welcome to do so. Nobody is going to force you to come out. We can still protect the sick and the elderly and the impact on the rest of the world has been minimal.  What are you so afraid of?

I’m afraid that if we go back to normal too soon that this will just start all over again. We have to be very confident that all this sacrifice wasn’t in vain. I’m not afraid for me. I’m afraid for vulnerable family members. I’m also disheartened by the lack of empathy by so many in this country.

That's completely irrational. The world doesn't stop on an IF. It might "start all over" and it might not. Nobody - and I mean NOBODY has any clue what is going to happen. 

What does this mean: "We have to be very confident that all this sacrifice wasn’t in vain."  You've said some amazingly stupid things (including something along these lines earlier that I chose to ignore), but I can't wait to hear the explanation for this...

Here's a not so little secret mitch: if you have "vulnerable" family, they can stay home, not have visitors over and not be exposed to anything.  It's really simple.  Don't go out; don't have anyone over.  Risk to you if you do that?  As close to zero as you can possibly get regardless of what the rest of the world does.  The rest of the world can move on with their lives and the vulnerable can be as safe as they would be.  Fascinatingly simple.  So now that we've dispelled that myth, what are you really worried about?

I'm disheartened by the lack of facts used to make decisions that negatively affect more people than the virus ever could.  I'm disheartened by politics playing more of a role in this than data.  I'm disheartened by the lack of empathy towards those being punished by poor decisions being made by politically motivated people that don't have enough valid information to make those decisions.

misterID
 Rep: 473 

Re: Covid 19

misterID wrote:

Mitch is not being unreasonable in his concern. We still don't really understand this disease, or how badly this thing is fucking people up. Young people are having strokes with it and no one knows why. All I see are people telling us to take their word, everything is fine and only old people are dying.

TheMole
 Rep: 77 

Re: Covid 19

TheMole wrote:
TheMole wrote:
Randall Flagg wrote:
TheMole wrote:

Where are you getting that? A simple extrapolation of the data shows that you're likely to hit 67k deaths in the next three or four days...


The only site that’s aggregating all data. The one being run by Bill Gates. This one :

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

You’re right that we’re going to hit 60k in the next week or so, but you’re ignoring that the US peaked 15 days ago.  And as I've said repeatedly, trusting unvetted numbers from people (like my State) that were/are counting people they assume had COVID without a test, isn't an accurate statement.  The CDC says they're counting pneumonia and influenza deaths in their COVID numbers.  It's linked a couple posts up for your reading pleasure.  Germany and other nations aren't doing that, and our mortality rate relative to infected and population is still #2 in the world.

65k deaths in the US today according to the CDC (as reported by the Johns Hopkins tracker), so sticking with my prediction of the US hitting 67k tomorrow or the day after. I still really don't understand how you were getting to 67k by August...

And, as predicted, we've surpassed the 67k mark today.
Also, about that so called "peak", I feel a better description might be "plateau". A peak implies a downward trend, and looking at the data for the past two weeks does not show a downward trend at all. The country seems to be hovering between 1500 and 2000 deaths per day fairly consistently.

buzzsaw
 Rep: 423 

Re: Covid 19

buzzsaw wrote:
misterID wrote:

Mitch is not being unreasonable in his concern. We still don't really understand this disease, or how badly this thing is fucking people up. Young people are having strokes with it and no one knows why. All I see are people telling us to take their word, everything is fine and only old people are dying.

Because that's what ALL of the actual data says.  If anything we're being asked to take it at people's word that this is a big issue for most people...none of the data says that.

I've said since this began we don't know, so I'm not disagreeing with that part.  What I am disagreeing with is this being the way you handle something you don't know.  That is completely irrational.

buzzsaw
 Rep: 423 

Re: Covid 19

buzzsaw wrote:
TheMole wrote:
TheMole wrote:
Randall Flagg wrote:

The only site that’s aggregating all data. The one being run by Bill Gates. This one :

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

You’re right that we’re going to hit 60k in the next week or so, but you’re ignoring that the US peaked 15 days ago.  And as I've said repeatedly, trusting unvetted numbers from people (like my State) that were/are counting people they assume had COVID without a test, isn't an accurate statement.  The CDC says they're counting pneumonia and influenza deaths in their COVID numbers.  It's linked a couple posts up for your reading pleasure.  Germany and other nations aren't doing that, and our mortality rate relative to infected and population is still #2 in the world.

65k deaths in the US today according to the CDC (as reported by the Johns Hopkins tracker), so sticking with my prediction of the US hitting 67k tomorrow or the day after. I still really don't understand how you were getting to 67k by August...

And, as predicted, we've surpassed the 67k mark today.
Also, about that so called "peak", I feel a better description might be "plateau". A peak implies a downward trend, and looking at the data for the past two weeks does not show a downward trend at all. The country seems to be hovering between 1500 and 2000 deaths per day fairly consistently.

Well, they are constantly adding to the data, so sure.  I mean the data is flawed data.  Garbage in, garbage out.

mitchejw
 Rep: 129 

Re: Covid 19

mitchejw wrote:
buzzsaw wrote:
TheMole wrote:
TheMole wrote:

65k deaths in the US today according to the CDC (as reported by the Johns Hopkins tracker), so sticking with my prediction of the US hitting 67k tomorrow or the day after. I still really don't understand how you were getting to 67k by August...

And, as predicted, we've surpassed the 67k mark today.
Also, about that so called "peak", I feel a better description might be "plateau". A peak implies a downward trend, and looking at the data for the past two weeks does not show a downward trend at all. The country seems to be hovering between 1500 and 2000 deaths per day fairly consistently.

Well, they are constantly adding to the data, so sure.  I mean the data is flawed data.  Garbage in, garbage out.

So I suppose all that pouring over data to write your thesis and dissertation on data that don't matter was a big waste of time then, huh?

buzzsaw
 Rep: 423 

Re: Covid 19

buzzsaw wrote:
mitchejw wrote:
buzzsaw wrote:
TheMole wrote:

And, as predicted, we've surpassed the 67k mark today.
Also, about that so called "peak", I feel a better description might be "plateau". A peak implies a downward trend, and looking at the data for the past two weeks does not show a downward trend at all. The country seems to be hovering between 1500 and 2000 deaths per day fairly consistently.

Well, they are constantly adding to the data, so sure.  I mean the data is flawed data.  Garbage in, garbage out.

So I suppose all that pouring over data to write your thesis and dissertation on data that don't matter was a big waste of time then, huh?

Answer the other post son...don't waste your time trying to be cute...address the questions asked directly to you since you saw fit to open your big mouth.

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