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Re: US Politics Thread
Smoking Guns wrote:misterID wrote:Tbh, I don't really think it's close at all. That's just my feeling.
Just telling you the poll. You have 2 at double digits and everyone else is in that 2-6 range.
http://s18.postimg.org/o4w2ah6ih/polls.png
The national polling average has Clinton at +5.4%. Which makes sense to me.
This just in from the AP:
After only averaging a 4-6 point lead nationally, Clinton concedes election to Trump.
"I mean, lets face it" Clinton said to a small group of 10,000 supporters, "Trump could easily have 160, 170 electoral college votes by elections end."
She later went on to say that a potential "200 electoral college vote victory" was not "the mandate" she had hoped for.
Ms. Clinton thanked her waning supporters in a way only she could, by announcing that she would bring her campaign And announce her candidacy for the 2020 election today! In addition, she'll be running in 2024 if that doesn't work out. Granted, she will be 108 years of age by then.
In the final concession to Trump, Clinton somberly stated that she would never carry states like North Dakota or Arkansas - states like Alaska or Nebraska. And right there alone was the solid 13 electoral college votes that she seeks. "Without those states, I see no reason to continue. Congratulations Mr.Trump, on your hard fought victory. I look forward to you doing things in the White House that will make people completely forget about my husband's indiscretions."
Mr. Trump could not be reached for comment, as he is currently filming episodes of "You're Fired" for the next two weeks.
Re: US Politics Thread
If you pulled that from the Onion it's their worst article ever. The least they could do is learn the basics of the electoral college.
Wow what a sour response. I wrote that in about seven minutes on the toilet this morning.
While I may not be funny, I know about the electoral college. I know that the Republicans have all the shit states that only have three electoral votes to pledge. If they're not three electoral votes little more than 4 or 5 electoral. college votes.
What's so difficult to understand about that? States Like North Dakota and South Dakota and Wyoming and Idaho and Montana. You know, all those inbred white states that nobody lives in or wants to live in .
- Smoking Guns
- Rep: 330
Re: US Politics Thread
James Lofton wrote:If you pulled that from the Onion it's their worst article ever. The least they could do is learn the basics of the electoral college.
Wow what a sour response. I wrote that in about seven minutes on the toilet this morning.
While I may not be funny, I know about the electoral college. I know that the Republicans have all the shit states that only have three electoral votes to pledge. If they're not three electoral votes little more than 4 or 5 electoral. college votes.
What's so difficult to understand about that? States Like North Dakota and South Dakota and Wyoming and Idaho and Montana. You know, all those inbred white states that nobody lives in or wants to live in .
Pretty racist comment. "Shit states", no wonder our country is divided. Not everyone can live in NYC, Boston, Chicago, Detroit, LA, San Francisco.
About the polls, please take out the USA Today and ABC poll. They are severely flawed and asked a majority Democratic group. So not accurate. Take those polls out and the one where trump is winning and you are in that 3-5 range I assume.
Re: US Politics Thread
Here's your early voting trends. Overall, Florida is the only highlight for Trump.
(CNN)-Hillary Clinton's campaign has reason for optimism in several swing states -- and appears to have turned Arizona into a battleground -- as millions of Americans vote early.
More than 7.3 million Americans have already voted. Democrats have improved their positions in North Carolina, Nevada and Arizona compared to this point in 2012, according to a CNN analysis of the latest early voting statistics.
Republicans, meanwhile, have good news in Iowa. Republicans have improved their position there over 2012 -- backing up the polls which suggest it could be the easiest state won by President Barack Obama for Trump to flip this year.
And in Florida, where the latest comparable data comes from 2008, Democrats -- buoyed by an increasingly diverse electorate -- have cut deeply into the traditional Republican advantage in early ballots cast so far.
These findings represent absentee ballots submitted and early votes cast through Tuesday across 35 states where data are available. Catalist, a data company that works with progressive candidates and advocacy groups, academics and think tanks, connects the data to voter records, allowing a deeper look at who has already cast a vote in this year's election.
Across 12 battleground states where data are available, more than 4.6 million votes have been cast. Here's a look at the early voting data from several of those battleground states:
Arizona
Registered Democrats continue to outpace registered Republicans in early voting. They're ahead by 4,116 votes, a major improvement from their position at this time four years ago, when they trailed by 21,179.
Two-thirds of Arizona voters cast their ballots before Election Day in 2012 -- making these early voting numbers crucial to watch for Clinton and Trump.
Colorado
This is the first presidential election where all registered Coloradans can vote-by-mail. Ballots went out last week, and Democrats have been increasing their advantage over Republicans as people cast their votes.
Democrats have outvoted Republicans by more than 10,000 votes, doubling their lead since Saturday. This could be very good news for Clinton, because at this point in 2012, Republicans had the advantage by about 7,600 votes.
Georgia
More than 583,000 people have already voted in Georgia -- that's a 40% turnout increase from this point in 2012.
Voters don't register by party in Georgia, so party breakdown for early voters isn't available.
Half the state voted early in 2012.
Florida
As in-person early voting kicks off in Florida, Republicans are ahead, but by a narrow margin. They currently hold an 18,120-vote advantage, a paltry amount compared to their 113,222-vote edge at this time in 2008.
The Clinton campaign has touted its efforts to register Hispanic voters in Florida, and that might be paying off. They comprise about 12% of the early voting electorate so far -- up from 8% in 2008. In addition, the share of the white vote has dropped from 82% in 2008 to just over 77% this year.
There were reports of long lines stretching past 90 minutes in Miami-Dade County as in-person early voting began Monday -- with voters telling reporters they were motivated by their distaste for Trump or Clinton.
Iowa
Iowa, where 43% of the vote came early in 2012, continues to provide a flicker of good news for Trump.
Democrats are ahead of Republicans in the latest early vote count, but their margin is lower than it was at this point in 2012, to the tune of about 7,200 votes. This gap isn't as wide as it was last week, but Democrats will need to ramp up their efforts in Iowa if they want to hold the Hawkeye State.
Nevada
In-person early voting kicked off across Nevada over the weekend and Democrats have flocked to the polls. They hold a nearly 15,000-vote lead, a slight improvement from their position in 2012.
Overall, early turnout is 18% lower than 2012 but slightly higher than 2008.
Nevada is a crucial early voting state. In 2012, 69% of the state's electorate cast their ballots before Election Day.
North Carolina
Registered Democrats have jumped ahead of registered Republicans by more than 100,000 votes in the Tar Heel State so far, as thousands of voters cast ballots over the weekend. The Democratic edge is slightly higher than it was in 2012.
However, if Clinton wants to flip North Carolina blue this year, she'll need strong turnout from African-Americans. At this point in 2012, black voters were 30% of the electorate. They're only about 25% today.
North Carolina reduced its early voting window, and the total ballots cast so far is down by more than 180,000 votes compared with 2012, but it's still a critical early voting state. Sixty-one percent of the state voted early in 2012.
Utah
At this point in 2012, Republicans led Democrats in early voting by more than 31,000 voters. But so far this year, the GOP advantage is only 15,834.
That's a drop of about 50% for the GOP in the most surprising state in play in the 2016 election.
Still, it's hard to read much into Utah's statistics. The state is a Republican stronghold. But Trump's unpopularity with its Mormon voters -- combined with independent conservative candidate Evan McMullin's focus there -- has turned it into a three-way race, with Clinton hoping to slide past a divided GOP. There's no way to tell at this stage whether those Republican ballots went for Trump, McMullin or someone else.
There's also the reality that the popularity of Romney, a Mormon, in Utah in 2012 fueled interest in that cycle. Republicans' advantage today is stronger than the 2,231-voter edge the GOP had in Utah in 2008.
Re: US Politics Thread
mitchejw wrote:James Lofton wrote:If you pulled that from the Onion it's their worst article ever. The least they could do is learn the basics of the electoral college.
Wow what a sour response. I wrote that in about seven minutes on the toilet this morning.
While I may not be funny, I know about the electoral college. I know that the Republicans have all the shit states that only have three electoral votes to pledge. If they're not three electoral votes little more than 4 or 5 electoral. college votes.
What's so difficult to understand about that? States Like North Dakota and South Dakota and Wyoming and Idaho and Montana. You know, all those inbred white states that nobody lives in or wants to live in .
Pretty racist comment. "Shit states", no wonder our country is divided. Not everyone can live in NYC, Boston, Chicago, Detroit, LA, San Francisco.
About the polls, please take out the USA Today and ABC poll. They are severely flawed and asked a majority Democratic group. So not accurate. Take those polls out and the one where trump is winning and you are in that 3-5 range I assume.
ABC/WaPo gets an A+ rating from 538. It leans slightly Dem. Adjusted lead today is 6.
Other polls today: 7, 4, 3, 2, all adjusted, all for Clinton.
6 is right in the middle and that's what i think the lead is right now.
- Randall Flagg
- Rep: 139
Re: US Politics Thread
James Lofton wrote:If you pulled that from the Onion it's their worst article ever. The least they could do is learn the basics of the electoral college.
Wow what a sour response. I wrote that in about seven minutes on the toilet this morning.
While I may not be funny, I know about the electoral college. I know that the Republicans have all the shit states that only have three electoral votes to pledge. If they're not three electoral votes little more than 4 or 5 electoral. college votes.
What's so difficult to understand about that? States Like North Dakota and South Dakota and Wyoming and Idaho and Montana. You know, all those inbred white states that nobody lives in or wants to live in .
Have you ever left Chicago? Met the people that create all the food and shit no one in your city is willing/capable to make? Montana and Wyoming are gorgeous. They lack the urban component that makes Chicago the deadliest city in the country. I'll take a week on a ranch in Montana every time over a week in Chicago staring at concrete and paying 2x as much for mediocre food.
Re: US Politics Thread
mitchejw wrote:James Lofton wrote:If you pulled that from the Onion it's their worst article ever. The least they could do is learn the basics of the electoral college.
Wow what a sour response. I wrote that in about seven minutes on the toilet this morning.
While I may not be funny, I know about the electoral college. I know that the Republicans have all the shit states that only have three electoral votes to pledge. If they're not three electoral votes little more than 4 or 5 electoral. college votes.
What's so difficult to understand about that? States Like North Dakota and South Dakota and Wyoming and Idaho and Montana. You know, all those inbred white states that nobody lives in or wants to live in .
Have you ever left Chicago? Met the people that create all the food and shit no one in your city is willing/capable to make? Montana and Wyoming are gorgeous. They lack the urban component that makes Chicago the deadliest city in the country. I'll take a week on a ranch in Montana every time over a week in Chicago staring at concrete and paying 2x as much for mediocre food.
Haha bad food? Lost all credibility there.
I'm originally from northern Wisconsin....I've actually been on many a farm...not talented enough to contribute in any way though.
Eau Claire, WI to be exact. Spent time in Rice Lake and a bit in Rhinelander - also Shawno which is an Indian reservation.
You want to talk about beauty? Then all of those places beat Illinois.
Re: US Politics Thread
mitchejw wrote:James Lofton wrote:If you pulled that from the Onion it's their worst article ever. The least they could do is learn the basics of the electoral college.
Wow what a sour response. I wrote that in about seven minutes on the toilet this morning.
While I may not be funny, I know about the electoral college. I know that the Republicans have all the shit states that only have three electoral votes to pledge. If they're not three electoral votes little more than 4 or 5 electoral. college votes.
What's so difficult to understand about that? States Like North Dakota and South Dakota and Wyoming and Idaho and Montana. You know, all those inbred white states that nobody lives in or wants to live in .
Pretty racist comment. "Shit states", no wonder our country is divided. Not everyone can live in NYC, Boston, Chicago, Detroit, LA, San Francisco.
About the polls, please take out the USA Today and ABC poll. They are severely flawed and asked a majority Democratic group. So not accurate. Take those polls out and the one where trump is winning and you are in that 3-5 range I assume.
No....just no....
First of all, you should probably hate subsidies for farms mr. conservative.
I am a white man who doesn't care for most white men....that I will own.
