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Axl S
 Rep: 109 

Re: Current Events Thread

Axl S wrote:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/tr … ction-map/

Cool tool for picking your own map. They've run 40,000 simulations (and still are) whenever there is an update to polling that then goes through their model. As you make choices it discards any simulation that didn't include your pick for that state and then recalculates the odds with the remaining simulations. Is pretty neat.

Seems certain that Trump needs Florida, and even with Florida it could be tight for him to get a win.

mitchejw
 Rep: 128 

Re: Current Events Thread

mitchejw wrote:
Axl S wrote:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/tr … ction-map/

Cool tool for picking your own map. They've run 40,000 simulations (and still are) whenever there is an update to polling that then goes through their model. As you make choices it discards any simulation that didn't include your pick for that state and then recalculates the odds with the remaining simulations. Is pretty neat.

Seems certain that Trump needs Florida, and even with Florida it could be tight for him to get a win.

Fivethirtyeight is giving Biden a 98 out of 100 chance to win? Wow...

James
 Rep: 644 

Re: Current Events Thread

James wrote:
mitchejw wrote:
James wrote:

My prediction...

https://www.270towin.com/map-images/vGeRA.png

I may be wrong. tongue

If Texas of all places is really in play, anything is possible... including a Reagan style landslide.

Yes...Virginia and Nevada are virtual locks for the Dems...and I'm curious why you have South Dakota going to Biden. I've never seen that before.

Also...Arizona and North Carolina have a very good chancing of tilting to the Dems. Also, Biden has been consistently polling ahead of Trump in Ohio for about 3 weeks...for whatever that's worth. Maine should be going Dem, too. Other than that...pretty dead on I'd say.

While Biden is leading in many state polls, those leads are fluctuating week to week.

In a state like Maine, Biden has a hefty margin yet it's close in key districts. Then take into account Trump and his team are doing a full court press in the state.

As I've said before, I believe the incumbent (whether D or R) has an automatic advantage in these situations. Unless we're actually looking at a coming Reagan style knockout blow, it's Trump's ballgame to lose.

It's interesting that they've been putting time and resources into a state with such few electoral votes. They may be hoping for some sort of avalanche on the east coast and that momentum will influence and carry over into the Midwest.

Like the saying goes.... perception is reality.

I believe it's a huge mistake for people to start dancing in the end zone before the touchdown has been scored.

Which leads to....

Fivethirtyeight is giving Biden a 98 out of 100 chance to win? Wow

I like 538 but....

That's ridiculous. This is the kind of shit that gets people complacent and it plays into Trump's hand.

I guess people didn't learn from 2016.

mitchejw
 Rep: 128 

Re: Current Events Thread

mitchejw wrote:
James wrote:
mitchejw wrote:
James wrote:

My prediction...

https://www.270towin.com/map-images/vGeRA.png

I may be wrong. tongue

If Texas of all places is really in play, anything is possible... including a Reagan style landslide.

Yes...Virginia and Nevada are virtual locks for the Dems...and I'm curious why you have South Dakota going to Biden. I've never seen that before.

Also...Arizona and North Carolina have a very good chancing of tilting to the Dems. Also, Biden has been consistently polling ahead of Trump in Ohio for about 3 weeks...for whatever that's worth. Maine should be going Dem, too. Other than that...pretty dead on I'd say.

While Biden is leading in many state polls, those leads are fluctuating week to week.

In a state like Maine, Biden has a hefty margin yet it's close in key districts. Then take into account Trump and his team are doing a full court press in the state.

As I've said before, I believe the incumbent (whether D or R) has an automatic advantage in these situations. Unless we're actually looking at a coming Reagan style knockout blow, it's Trump's ballgame to lose.

It's interesting that they've been putting time and resources into a state with such few electoral votes. They may be hoping for some sort of avalanche on the east coast and that momentum will influence and carry over into the Midwest.

Like the saying goes.... perception is reality.

I believe it's a huge mistake for people to start dancing in the end zone before the touchdown has been scored.

Which leads to....

Fivethirtyeight is giving Biden a 98 out of 100 chance to win? Wow

I like 538 but....

That's ridiculous. This is the kind of shit that gets people complacent and it plays into Trump's hand.

I guess people didn't learn from 2016.

The irony of trump is that he will be evaluated based on his weaknesses...not his strengths...

I’ll appreciate going back to an era in which my blood pressure wasn’t boiling if it happens...

James
 Rep: 644 

Re: Current Events Thread

James wrote:

By the way...I just checked and 538 gave Hillary an 83.8% chance of winning in 2016.

I'll  appreciate going back to an era in which my blood pressure wasn’t boiling if it happens...

Even if I loved Trump, I'd still want him gone. This chapter has to end.

Biden needs to be a one term transitional president to ween the country off its Trump obsession. With any luck, the country can go back to how politics used to be handled.

mitchejw
 Rep: 128 

Re: Current Events Thread

mitchejw wrote:
James wrote:

By the way...I just checked and 538 gave Hillary an 83.8% chance of winning in 2016.

I'll  appreciate going back to an era in which my blood pressure wasn’t boiling if it happens...

Even if I loved Trump, I'd still want him gone. This chapter has to end.

Biden needs to be a one term transitional president to ween the country off its Trump obsession. With any luck, the country can go back to how politics used to be handled.

That’s exactly what i want...

If the left hasn’t learned it’s lesson by now then fuck ‘em...they don’t deserve to beat trump with their protest third party vote.

bigbri
 Rep: 341 

Re: Current Events Thread

bigbri wrote:
James wrote:

By the way...I just checked and 538 gave Hillary an 83.8% chance of winning in 2016.

I'll  appreciate going back to an era in which my blood pressure wasn’t boiling if it happens...

Even if I loved Trump, I'd still want him gone. This chapter has to end.

Biden needs to be a one term transitional president to ween the country off its Trump obsession. With any luck, the country can go back to how politics used to be handled.


538 is giving Biden an 87% chance to win right now. The 98% is something else.

I want to see the debate before posting my map. Trump was in position to win this before the last debate and he committed campaign hari-kari on live television. So, debates can change things. Trump is going to do his thing. Biden will try to keep his cool. If he does, that's Trump's last chance.

As for polls, I'm not ready to trust them. Pollsters have made changes to reflect their 2016 "miss", so they should be better. I'm even seeing talk that they might be overestimating Trump's support now to compensate.

That said, if you look at trends instead of individual polls, you start to see things. Looking at averages of all polls, Biden has a better chance to win Iowa or Texas than Trump has of winning Michigan or Pennsylvania. Trump is losing support by 15 to 20 points in some states. He's up by 8 in Montana. He won it by like 20 points. He's up by 7 in Kansas after winning by 21 points. Again, grain of salt ....

Voter turnout is forecast to be record-breaking, surpassing the 2008 Obama election by percentage and topping 2016 by almost 20 million. I think that benefits Democrats, as the midterms played out with massive turnout for a non-general election. But academics studies of this vary. Brookings Institute has some good analysis. https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2 … elections/

James
 Rep: 644 

Re: Current Events Thread

James wrote:

I agree that high voter turnout will not benefit Trump and it might indicate a potential landslide in the making.

Biden has a better chance to win Iowa or Texas than Trump has of winning Michigan or Pennsylvania.

If Biden can win Texas....it's over.

Here's the 538 map. I gave each of them the states they are listed as "likely/lean" and I left the toss up states alone.

Only thing I changed was making Texas go blue....



9boNk.png


There's no way to win without Texas. Period.

I'm surprised that he's not living there until the election.  lol

Randall Flagg
 Rep: 130 

Re: Current Events Thread

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/presid … -to-debate

This is sleazy, but he did it in 16 to remind everyone Clinton stood behind her husband’s sleaze. It kind of worked in terms of neutering Clinton’s attacks.

My understanding are the Hunter Biden photos and accusations of smoking crack and fucking whores are true. I’ve not seen anyone say they’re fabricated. The DNI said it ain’t from Russia.

None of that means Biden did a fucking thing wrong. No one’s been able to provide any evidence of actual wrong doing. But if the back hallway handshakes happened (what father wouldn’t want to help his son impress someone else), it looks dirty. Democrats just spent 3 years running Trump through the mud on Russia and produced dick. I guarantee you sick Mueller on Biden’s associates and family, the crack pipe and Moscow prostitutes is just the icing on the cake.

If Trump wins tonight and shows the world Biden is not up to this challenge and they’re really putting in Harris and DNC handlers, maybe he can eek out a win. He’s within the margin of error with most states he needs. I don’t think it’s likely today, but I didn’t in 16 either. If people are fed up with the lockdown and covid deaths on a population overwhelmingly nursing home residents in extreme age, maybe Wisconsin and Pa break for Trump.

I just don’t think Trump can handle a formal debate. He’ll yell over Biden’s microphone. I think tonight will be a disaster and the door will swing shut on Trump.

PaSnow
 Rep: 205 

Re: Current Events Thread

PaSnow wrote:
James wrote:

Which leads to....

Fivethirtyeight is giving Biden a 98 out of 100 chance to win? Wow

I like 538 but....

That's ridiculous. This is the kind of shit that gets people complacent and it plays into Trump's hand.

I guess people didn't learn from 2016.

I agree. I'm logged in now and, 8 hours later, its at an 87% chance for Biden.  Which, I'll admit is likely due to new/updated polling, but if you're last stat was off by 10% it's a pretty worthless stat.

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