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mitchejw
 Rep: 129 

Re: Covid 19

mitchejw wrote:

DP

mitchejw
 Rep: 129 

Re: Covid 19

mitchejw wrote:
Randall Flagg wrote:
bigbri wrote:

Flu deaths, Trump said (and this article says he is right), are incredible to believe. They are.

This Scientific American story (I don't know their politics. I assume it'll be written off as leftist, but again they agree with Trump) says the CDC's flu death reports are not what they seem. It's interesting, if true.

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/ob … o-oranges/

Scientific American wrote:

"The question remains. Can we accurately compare the toll of the flu to the toll of the coronavirus pandemic?

To do this, we have to compare counted deaths to counted deaths, not counted deaths to wildly inflated statistical estimates. "


The article says we can't rely on the CDC's flu death numbers, because they use statistical estimates to count dead.  The author rightly suggests that these models can be misleading.  Then goes on to use the same models as a representation for COVID deaths, while deflating the amount of Flu deaths because said models can't be trusted.

"we have to compare counted deaths to counted deaths"

You're aware that the "counted deaths" from COVID aren't deaths that are attributable to all known people with positive COVID tests, let alone deceased patients who tested positive for COVID-19, and died of ailments attributed solely to "COVID".  As the author says:

"In fact, in the fine print, the CDC’s flu numbers also include pneumonia deaths." 

They're doing the exact same thing with COVID deaths in the United States.  If you die and they suspect you had COVID-19, those numbers are being reported as "counted deaths" for COVID. 

Here is directly from the CDC's site on how they count COVID deaths:

CDC wrote:

The provisional data presented on this page include the weekly provisional count of deaths in the United States due to COVID-19, deaths from all causes and percent of expected deaths (i.e., number of deaths received over number of deaths expected based on data from previous years), pneumonia deaths (excluding pneumonia deaths involving influenza), pneumonia deaths involving COVID-19, influenza deaths, and deaths involving pneumonia, influenza, or COVID-19;

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

So I totally agree with the author that using a statistical model with the same certainty as a "counted death" is inappropriate.  I just think that same criticism should be leveled at the total count of COVID "counted deaths" from the United States that use the same metric.  That's why I said in my first post in 2.5 weeks that we're still #2 in the world for mortality, behind Germany, who doesn't define "COVID Death" the same in the United States, and who are more accurately reflecting those that died from COVID versus those that " include pneumonia deaths".

If your point was to criticize me and "Trump" for using the idea that the real impact from COVID and the Flua re similar. by arguing the best known death count for the Flu released from the CDC shouldn't be compared with the shaky and ever decreasing and increasing number of COVID-19 deaths in the United States, I don't think you succeeded.  Both figures suffer from the variability of definition and cause.  But if one of the top 2 disease authorities in the world state a number is X, I'm going to take their word over it rather than some doctor who called a few friends and asked them if they saw someone die from the flu.  I just asked my fiance across the room if she's ever seen someone die of COVID, and she said "no".  I'll see if she can call some of her friends around the country and find out if they've seen anyone die from COVID who she knows will say "no" as well.

Good god there are a lot of mental gymnastics going on here.

Yes...you have your model for this. I’m just not sure why anyone should care about your model.

I really don’t mean this in an insulting way but it’s likely that it’ll be taken in any other way...

This is not a parsimonious response...it seems like you’re reaching for a complicated, almost conspiratorial explanation for what we’re going through...i mean parsimonious in the sense that the simplest explanations and conclusion are usually the ones that end up being correct. I’m not sure why you need to post dissertations about your opinion that is at least as flawed as the CDC or any other ‘authority’ on the topic.

So what if the CDC tends to slightly overestimate cases because you believe that the only cases that should count are the ones that are physically seen. It’s quite plausible that people die from this that never even make it to a hospital or some place where they can be counted? What makes your measuring system better? Why does your opinion count more than the alleged experts who create and run organizations like the CDC?

I just don’t see any use in these conspiracy theories about who is worth trusting and who isn’t? It’s exhausting and it’s just frankly beside the point.

TheMole
 Rep: 77 

Re: Covid 19

TheMole wrote:
Randall Flagg wrote:

We're projected to have 67k dead from COVID by August, slightly more than the flu in 2018.

Where are you getting that? A simple extrapolation of the data shows that you're likely to hit 67k deaths in the next three or four days...

Randall Flagg
 Rep: 134 

Re: Covid 19

TheMole wrote:
Randall Flagg wrote:

We're projected to have 67k dead from COVID by August, slightly more than the flu in 2018.

Where are you getting that? A simple extrapolation of the data shows that you're likely to hit 67k deaths in the next three or four days...


The only site that’s aggregating all data. The one being run by Bill Gates. This one :

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

You’re right that we’re going to hit 60k in the next week or so, but you’re ignoring that the US peaked 15 days ago.  And as I've said repeatedly, trusting unvetted numbers from people (like my State) that were/are counting people they assume had COVID without a test, isn't an accurate statement.  The CDC says they're counting pneumonia and influenza deaths in their COVID numbers.  It's linked a couple posts up for your reading pleasure.  Germany and other nations aren't doing that, and our mortality rate relative to infected and population is still #2 in the world.

bigbri
 Rep: 341 

Re: Covid 19

bigbri wrote:
Randall Flagg wrote:
TheMole wrote:
Randall Flagg wrote:

We're projected to have 67k dead from COVID by August, slightly more than the flu in 2018.

Where are you getting that? A simple extrapolation of the data shows that you're likely to hit 67k deaths in the next three or four days...


The only site that’s aggregating all data. The one being run by Bill Gates. This one :

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

You’re right that we’re going to hit 60k in the next week or so, but you’re ignoring that the US peaked 15 days ago.  And as I've said repeatedly, trusting unvetted numbers from people (like my State) that were/are counting people they assume had COVID without a test, isn't an accurate statement.  The CDC says they're counting pneumonia and influenza deaths in their COVID numbers.  It's linked a couple posts up for your reading pleasure.  Germany and other nations aren't doing that, and our mortality rate relative to infected and population is still #2 in the world.

EDITED: I didn't say what I wanted to say using the correct terms. I'll have to revisit.

TheMole
 Rep: 77 

Re: Covid 19

TheMole wrote:
Randall Flagg wrote:
TheMole wrote:
Randall Flagg wrote:

We're projected to have 67k dead from COVID by August, slightly more than the flu in 2018.

Where are you getting that? A simple extrapolation of the data shows that you're likely to hit 67k deaths in the next three or four days...


The only site that’s aggregating all data. The one being run by Bill Gates. This one :

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

You’re right that we’re going to hit 60k in the next week or so, but you’re ignoring that the US peaked 15 days ago.  And as I've said repeatedly, trusting unvetted numbers from people (like my State) that were/are counting people they assume had COVID without a test, isn't an accurate statement.  The CDC says they're counting pneumonia and influenza deaths in their COVID numbers.  It's linked a couple posts up for your reading pleasure.  Germany and other nations aren't doing that, and our mortality rate relative to infected and population is still #2 in the world.

65k deaths in the US today according to the CDC (as reported by the Johns Hopkins tracker), so sticking with my prediction of the US hitting 67k tomorrow or the day after. I still really don't understand how you were getting to 67k by August...

mitchejw
 Rep: 129 

Re: Covid 19

mitchejw wrote:
TheMole wrote:
Randall Flagg wrote:
TheMole wrote:

Where are you getting that? A simple extrapolation of the data shows that you're likely to hit 67k deaths in the next three or four days...


The only site that’s aggregating all data. The one being run by Bill Gates. This one :

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

You’re right that we’re going to hit 60k in the next week or so, but you’re ignoring that the US peaked 15 days ago.  And as I've said repeatedly, trusting unvetted numbers from people (like my State) that were/are counting people they assume had COVID without a test, isn't an accurate statement.  The CDC says they're counting pneumonia and influenza deaths in their COVID numbers.  It's linked a couple posts up for your reading pleasure.  Germany and other nations aren't doing that, and our mortality rate relative to infected and population is still #2 in the world.

65k deaths in the US today according to the CDC (as reported by the Johns Hopkins tracker), so sticking with my prediction of the US hitting 67k tomorrow or the day after. I still really don't understand how you were getting to 67k by August...

Please don't spend too much time trying to wrap your head around this...you have to understand what the purpose of this type of analysis is...

The purpose is to undermine and discredit experts. These are experts that the OP disagrees with because of his own personal beliefs.

Here's how it works...pick a conclusion that fits what you believe, then work backward to collect evidence that your theory or opinion is true.

Here the OP is saying the way we count deaths related to Corona significantly overestimates actual deaths...therefore...the actually death count is much lower...therefore...we overreacted and all of this was stupid and for nothing.

bigbri
 Rep: 341 

Re: Covid 19

bigbri wrote:

The overall death rate in this country right now is significantly higher than most any other time in recent years. This is not w covid death rate, but death rate for any reason.

“Total deaths in seven states that have been hard hit by the coronavirus pandemic are nearly 50 percent higher than normal for the five weeks from March 8 through April 11, according to new death statistics from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. That is 9,000 more deaths than were reported as of April 11 in official counts of deaths from the coronavirus.

The new data is partial and most likely undercounts the recent death toll significantly. But it still illustrates how the coronavirus is causing a surge in deaths in the places it has struck, probably killing more people than the reported statistics capture.”

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 … total.html

Instead of overcounting covid death rates, this suggests an undercount. Unless someone has another idea why overall death rates have spiked?

Also, the IMHE model consistently has been proven wrong. It is drastically conservative in its death predictions.
https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020 … e-pandemic

buzzsaw
 Rep: 423 

Re: Covid 19

buzzsaw wrote:
mitchejw wrote:
TheMole wrote:
Randall Flagg wrote:

The only site that’s aggregating all data. The one being run by Bill Gates. This one :

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

You’re right that we’re going to hit 60k in the next week or so, but you’re ignoring that the US peaked 15 days ago.  And as I've said repeatedly, trusting unvetted numbers from people (like my State) that were/are counting people they assume had COVID without a test, isn't an accurate statement.  The CDC says they're counting pneumonia and influenza deaths in their COVID numbers.  It's linked a couple posts up for your reading pleasure.  Germany and other nations aren't doing that, and our mortality rate relative to infected and population is still #2 in the world.

65k deaths in the US today according to the CDC (as reported by the Johns Hopkins tracker), so sticking with my prediction of the US hitting 67k tomorrow or the day after. I still really don't understand how you were getting to 67k by August...

Please don't spend too much time trying to wrap your head around this...you have to understand what the purpose of this type of analysis is...

The purpose is to undermine and discredit experts. These are experts that the OP disagrees with because of his own personal beliefs.

Here's how it works...pick a conclusion that fits what you believe, then work backward to collect evidence that your theory or opinion is true.

Here the OP is saying the way we count deaths related to Corona significantly overestimates actual deaths...therefore...the actually death count is much lower...therefore...we overreacted and all of this was stupid and for nothing.

Oh, the death count is questionable at best and the death rate is much lower - the question is how much lower?  You have the reasoning completely wrong.  There is more than one piece to the equation.  Death rates are based on two things...the number of dead (your death count - which is certainly arguable given the recklessness officials have been financially motivated to use when declaring cause of death) and the number of cases, which is also debatable given the lack of testing and lack of reliable results from the antibody tests. 

In other words, the only people telling the truth are the ones saying we don't know...all the so-called experts saying they know are lying.

Axl S
 Rep: 110 

Re: Covid 19

Axl S wrote:
bigbri wrote:

The overall death rate in this country right now is significantly higher than most any other time in recent years. This is not w covid death rate, but death rate for any reason.

“Total deaths in seven states that have been hard hit by the coronavirus pandemic are nearly 50 percent higher than normal for the five weeks from March 8 through April 11, according to new death statistics from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. That is 9,000 more deaths than were reported as of April 11 in official counts of deaths from the coronavirus.

The new data is partial and most likely undercounts the recent death toll significantly. But it still illustrates how the coronavirus is causing a surge in deaths in the places it has struck, probably killing more people than the reported statistics capture.”

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 … total.html

Instead of overcounting covid death rates, this suggests an undercount. Unless someone has another idea why overall death rates have spiked?

Also, the IMHE model consistently has been proven wrong. It is drastically conservative in its death predictions.
https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020 … e-pandemic


This. Focus is starting to turn to overall death rate here in the UK as reporting of Covid-19 deaths becomes harder and harder. These numbers will be multifacted of course - how many deaths are happening because people are fearful about going to hospital? - but even when factorying the expected deaths from those diseases in a year in to the counts, it appears there are a number of extra deaths that are most likely Covid.

The collation of death statistics has become a clusterfuck it seems in most countries, few have an accurate picture of the scale of what is happening.

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