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darknemus
 Rep: 23 

Re: SR's leak plausibility and potential timeframe (informed speculation)

darknemus wrote:

Hey all,

Let's stat with the basics.

A. That wasn't Ryan Lesser in the video - his voice on his voice mail box @ Harmonix was NOTHING like the guy in the video's voice.  Trust me, I listened to it about 10x just to make sure - definitely not the same individual.

B. The XBox 360 Release of RB II is scheduled for September 14th.  Keep in mind that the game stores typically get the games in 3 - 5 days ahead of schedule (with two weeks ahead not being uncommon) with a requirement to 'street date' at whatever the date is.

C. Playtesters who currently have RB II do NOT have the Shackler's Revenge track, to my understanding.

D. Assuming that the US retailers for Rock Band II get the game the day before release (let's say September 13th, although that's cutting it awful close) - we need to allow about 10 days at the least for packaging, disc duplication, etc, etc.  So that puts us at a 'gold' date of September 3rd at the absolute LATEST (This is assuming the game isn't delayed.. but Harmonix is pretty good about their sticking to release dates)

E. At that time (again, more than likely before, September 3rd is the 'D-Day' I'm throwing up here) review copies will go to press.. probably with a requirement to 'embargo' the details of the story until the release or maybe a few days beforehand.


Because of this - I would suggest the absolute LATEST we'd have a leak of the track would be September 3rd.. although I'm still putting it close to the third week of August or so, knowing how the game industry works. 

Also, keep in mind, if there *ARE* plans to release it as a single, I'd think the single would day / date release with RB II - which means that yes, another source would be out there to source a leak from, again, two weeks or so prior to release.

So - my best guess is we hear the track by August 20th.. with a 'worst case scenario' by September 3rd, if this follows any of the patterns of leaks that have occurred before.  It would not shock me, though, if the thing showed up somewhere as soon as tomorrow wink - We shall see smile

Hope you all have a great day,

-darknemus

NY Giants82
 Rep: 26 

Re: SR's leak plausibility and potential timeframe (informed speculation)

NY Giants82 wrote:

Thanks. Quality post!

PaSnow
 Rep: 205 

Re: SR's leak plausibility and potential timeframe (informed speculation)

PaSnow wrote:

Just curious, would it be hard to rip the song off the game... or is that part pretty easy. Not sure a non-GnR fan would care to go thru the effort of leaking the track out there if it involves a few different steps to extract a song off it.


Between SR & a likely Metallica single soon I can't wait!!

Communist China
 Rep: 130 

Re: SR's leak plausibility and potential timeframe (informed speculation)

I think there are many people out there who can rip a song from RB pretty easily without losing any audio quality. I don't think we'll be hearing shackler's for the first time in a Youtube video with a guy hitting 80% of the guitar notes or anything like that.

I firmly expect it to leak in full quality, not distorted in any game way.

Thanks for the estimations, dark.

darknemus
 Rep: 23 

Re: SR's leak plausibility and potential timeframe (informed speculation)

darknemus wrote:

Oh, I'm sure the song will leak in 'perfect' quality - definitely not hammed up by some 15 year old who thinks he can play the drums because he picked up a set of 5S sticks in middle school and banged out the percussion part to 'Smoke on the Water"

-darknemus

gavgnr
 Rep: 4 

Re: SR's leak plausibility and potential timeframe (informed speculation)

gavgnr wrote:

Thanks for the info Dark, though I have a feeling this will leak sooner, or should I say *hope*

Mainly because I'm going abroad 1st Sept for 10 days and I have no idea how I'm going to be able to d/load a file using an internet connection abroad!!

RussTCB
 Rep: 633 

Re: SR's leak plausibility and potential timeframe (informed speculation)

RussTCB wrote:

removed

James
 Rep: 664 

Re: SR's leak plausibility and potential timeframe (informed speculation)

James wrote:

Very good time frame you established there, and seeing it like that makes me wonder why GNR didn't throw the track on Itunes in the initial excitement over the track. Doing so would not have affected game sales one bit. I realize deals have been made with Rock Band, but it still doesn't make sense to waste that buzz. Other than confirming the track would be on Rock Band 2, they didn't give one iota of info.

I figured Azoff would realize that the whole "mystery" thing is old.

James
 Rep: 664 

Re: SR's leak plausibility and potential timeframe (informed speculation)

James wrote:
darknemus wrote:

It would not shock me, though, if the thing showed up somewhere as soon as tomorrow wink - We shall see smile

-darknemus

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Dadud
 Rep: 14 

Re: SR's leak plausibility and potential timeframe (informed speculation)

Dadud wrote:

The game is going gold any day now, so its possible some sneaky bastard could get his hands on a copy right away off the production line. Spore for example, comes out september 7th. But is going gold sometime this week

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