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Re: Predictions: 1st week U.S. sales will be...
So GNR at the peak of their success, and with the record industry still riding high as well, sold 770k of UYI2. So with the lack of an epic music video in heavy rotation on MTV, the lack of Axl doing promotional interviews, the changes in the music industry, etc., if with all that they can still move 500k I'd think that was quite an accomplishment.
- tejastech08
- Rep: 194
Re: Predictions: 1st week U.S. sales will be...
So GNR at the peak of their success, and with the record industry still riding high as well, sold 770k of UYI2. So with the lack of an epic music video in heavy rotation on MTV, the lack of Axl doing promotional interviews, the changes in the music industry, etc., if with all that they can still move 500k I'd think that was quite an accomplishment.
One thing about that though is that the record industry has gotten more frontloaded. 770,000 is around 10% of what UYI2 has sold so far. Nowadays it seems like the first week accounts for 50% (or more) of an album's total sales.
Re: Predictions: 1st week U.S. sales will be...
I predict about 400K copies purchased by 250K people. A lot of the sales will be people buying multiple copies to support the band as though Axl is going to know they bought multiple copies and support the band. Another not so good sign for the long term success of the album...
Re: Predictions: 1st week U.S. sales will be...
So GNR at the peak of their success, and with the record industry still riding high as well, sold 770k of UYI2. So with the lack of an epic music video in heavy rotation on MTV, the lack of Axl doing promotional interviews, the changes in the music industry, etc., if with all that they can still move 500k I'd think that was quite an accomplishment.
You're missing something... UYI1 came out the same day!! So at the height of GnR's success & blah blah blah they sold about 1.5 million copies in a week, not just 770k.
It's all apples & oranges anyway, the best comparison are to Metallica & ACDC. I think it'll be in about that range. 500K sounds a little high to me in regards to how many it will sell, but it'd be an achievement in this day & age.
- Gunslinger
- Rep: 88
Re: Predictions: 1st week U.S. sales will be...
One thing about that though is that the record industry has gotten more frontloaded. 770,000 is around 10% of what UYI2 has sold so far. Nowadays it seems like the first week accounts for 50% (or more) of an album's total sales.
Exellent point!
As far as my prediction it is hard to say especially with the Best Buy exclusive, I think that will REALLY hurt initial sales. I think had it not been for the exclusive we would have seen 500,000 copies moved. With it I am guessing more like 275-350k. I'll be MORE interested in the total after two weeks. My measure of success will be that after two weeks it needs to be approaching 800k or better. Anything less (imo) will be a failure for THIS particular record.
Re: Predictions: 1st week U.S. sales will be...
sandman wrote:my numbers are based on two very recent album releases by bands that are in the same segment of the industry as Gnr.
Black Ice sold 784,000.
Death Magnetic sold 490,000 (in 3 days).IMO, it doesn't matter how albums "generally" sell these days. those two albums i listed are the right benchmark.
Exactly, and if GNR can't come close to Metallica's 3 DAY number than it SHOULD be viewed as a huge disappointment.
no it shouldnt...metallica was a phenominon...nobody saw that coming
by the look of things its selling better than I was anticipating...300,000-500,000 in the first week thats awesome!
Re: Predictions: 1st week U.S. sales will be...
factoring in various things (particularly the BB exclusive), my measuring stick may be about 100K high. but i just figured it would be good to get everyone's expeectations out there before the results come in so we can better assess people's opinions of first week success.
not that first week means much....it's total worldwide sales that matters. one hit single and a major tour could keep this album selling well through 2009.
kid rock managed to keep his album on the charts for quite some time, and sell more records than you would've thought after his first week.
