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#1 Re: The Garden » Racial Discussion » 4 weeks ago

When I said in the politics thread the other day about Trumps election being a response to the left this is what I meant. Admittedly I had not foreseen the 7 days that have followed but it's a great example. I wasn't meaning so much the corridors of power had shifted too far left or policies of specific governments so much as a societal shift left. Or at least far too loud a voice is afforded to the radical left which I think results in the electorate voting more to the right in response. I know you wanted to keep this politics free but the two are linked I feel, at least in terms of what I outlined above.

Demanding that people should hang their heads in shame and self flagellate for the crimes of their ancestors two centuries ago (broad generalisation), meanwhile insisting on removing and censoring any entertainment medium from pop culture history that doesn't meet June 2020's new standard is not, in my view at least, going to win people round. Neither is removing and defacing statues or memorials of historical figures. Then anyone who makes a point along those lines is labelled a bigot and shutdown.  So we see the response in the voting booth instead, the only place left where people can voice an honest opinion.

I will leave the explicit politics there, or at least try.

Like most inequalities they are often far more complex than any one explanation and to simply boil down the whole topic to 'systemic racism' in this case massively over simplifies the subject. I think the response then does more harm than good in trying to correct inequality generally with a 'top down' approach which usually just results in positive discrimination which is then alienating to a different group of people.

That's not to deny racism exists either, clearly it does and will be a factor but it is one of many.

#2 Re: The Garden » US Politics Thread » 5 weeks ago

mitchejw wrote:

I'd also like to add that blaming the left for marching leftward while we currently sit as far right as we've ever stood in American politics is a peculiar assessment.

Do you think?

Do you not think Trumps presidency is a symptom of the mainstream left having already headed too far left more most people?

#3 Re: The Garden » Covid 19 » 8 weeks ago

mitchejw wrote:

I strongly suggest this thread get closed...this won’t end. RF and buzz will force everyone out of this conversation if they haven’t already.

It's the biggest news story in 20 years, it's not getting closed.

#4 Re: The Garden » Covid 19 » 8 weeks ago

Randall Flagg wrote:

"We searched the WHO repository of COVID-19 studies on 24th March 2020. To identify studies reporting data on LTCs among people who had died from Covid-19, we screened titles and abstracts of all epidemiological, clinical, case-series and review articles (n=1685). We identified and screened 77 potentially relevant full-text articles, of which four reported aggregate data on LTCs among people who had died of COVID-19. Three were small studies (32, 44, and 54 deaths, respectively) based in Wuhan, China"

Any person with any academic background in stats would immediately see the problem.  To say nothing that its thesis clearly doesn't align with real world data.  They're using data from March, and 3/4 of their data is from "small studies"  in Wuhan.  That's just  a fantatsic model to make predictive claims from.

''In view of the smaller sizes of the Chinese studies, and the greater dissimilarity of these populations with the UK relative to the Italian data, we opted not to include these in the analysis.''

Any person with an academic background in stats would probably read the whole study properly first.

Randall Flagg wrote:
TheMole wrote:

Of course everyone acknowledges there are consequences, but the financial fall-out just seems so much more manageable (in the sense that we as a society have the tools to soften the impact) than the loss of lives (for which we still don't have an adequate answer in the form of a cure or vaccin).

Do you have anything to support this opinion, or is based on the same appeal to authority as your other posts are.  "I don't really have an answer, but I like it when authority tells me it's going to be ok.  I'm still going to express an opinion, but when someone tells me not to worry, I just let the people I think are smarter than me make decisions, and accept them.  You're crazy if you question any of it."

Does he really need to support this opinion on that? The West has recovered from many financial crisis over the years, history tells us it is not only possible but highly likely. Is the stance that a financial crisis and the effects thereof are easier to reverse than death a postion that needs defending?

#5 Re: The Garden » Covid 19 » 8 weeks ago

Randall Flagg wrote:

Well, I mean my state has more than 2x the amount of people as all of Scotland (you Europhiles keep forgetting how much bigger we yanks are than any of your countries), so if you're going to make a blanket statement about ages, I think the sample should be evaluated.  Looking at this BBC article from 5 days ago, 90% of all deaths in Scotland have been over the age of 65 and 75% are over the age of 75.  The average life expectancy in Scotland is 79.  So my state's numbers and Scotland's are almost identical, but why research any of this before linking an article that supports your fear.

So I have no idea how this study makes the argument people are dying 12 years too early.  40% of all Scots dying from COVID are over 85, and only 9% are under 65 (wow, this number is significantly higher than the US - don't let the others know this piece of information) so it just doesn't add up at all.  But feel free to accuse my "anecdotal" evidence of my state which has over 2x the population of Scotland, and ignore Scotland's own numbers which clearly show this study to be wrong on its face.  And what do you know, the majority of deaths in Scotland are occurring in "care homes".  It's almost as if the virus treats people the same regardless of nationality. You found a headline, didn't bother to fact check a single thing or see if it made sense at all, linked it as an authority, then had the gall to say me linking actual numbers from my states (which is 2x a big as Scotland) is anecdotal.  Wooosh (that's the sound of it going over your head)

I get it.  People defaulting on loans and losing their homes is all just imaginary.  33% unemployment is just a number.  These people don't need income and food to eat. 

If you're going to just dismiss anything I say outright, do yourself a favor and make sure your posts at least pass the smell test before embarrassing yourself.  You clearly didn't bother to research anything before posting, and have the audacity to call my comments anecdotal when some random, non credited study you link doesn't pass basic math.  But keep trying.

Did you read the study? The data on deaths is taken from Italy primarily.

It's still to be peer reviewed in fairness so let's wait and see. I'm not qualified to comment on the quality of the statistical modelling they have done but applying deaths from one country to a general population of another and concluding years lost seems a bit woolly to me.

Can we also look at moving this to more civil ground please. Some feel the current lockdown is an overreaction, fine. Others disagree, also fine. Given the scientific community and world experts in this field haven't reached a general consensus either, a position of 'I'm right and you're wrong' on a GNR fan forum from either side of the argument seems foolish to me.

#6 Re: The Garden » Covid 19 » 9 weeks ago

bigbri wrote:

This is an interesting story. Research suggests the virus we're suffering from now is not the same strain that originated in Wuhan. Basically, it has mutated. This is worrying, because mutation means no vaccine is possible for the long-term. It's like the flu in that there is a  new type of vaccine each year, but we have to wait to see what strain  is circulating before issuing vaccines. https://www.latimes.com/california/stor … n-original

There’s two sides to this. The first is that no permanent vaccine to any corona virus has ever been developed. Therefore it’s likely the best we can hope for is a seasonal vaccine. Although we could also find an effective treatment which reduces symptoms in the worst sufferers sufficiently that make a vaccine is less necessary.

The other side is that mutation was inevitable and not really the scare story it’s being presented as (for now at least). When a virus jumps to a new host species they are usually ill adapted at first and need to mutate in order to better increase the chances of replication. If it hadn’t mutated yet there’s a good chance it would have died off already and we wouldn’t even be talking about it now. It’s only reporting what virologists would have assumed from the outset.

#7 Re: The Garden » Covid 19 » 9 weeks ago

This thread is giving me a headache

buzzsaw wrote:

If you can figure out how to read it (or get someone to read it to you), I'd be interested in your thoughts on the Sweden article from the same source you've used in the past (just in case you want to label it as some right wind shill).

Just a side note but the article comes from the Telegraph newspaper in the UK, which is unquestionably right wing shill.

The article is interesting Buzz and when all is said and done Sweden will provide a useful counter point and reference. However their low population and geographical spread means it may not be the correct response for every country (it's not even certain it's the right response for Sweden yet). As it says in the article 'If Swedes hadn't changed their behaviour on the recommendation of the Public Health Institute, he stressed, Imperial would have been proven right.' Imperial being the Imperial College 'doomsday' model that completely changed the UK's response from herd immunity to lockdown. They acknowledge social distance was crucial to helping control the situation. I suppose it comes down to whether you trust a population to heed the health advice without it being enforced. The Swedish government perhaps trusted their people to be more responsible than most governments dared of theirs?

Next steps will be interesting. I agree about shielding the old and vulnerable and allowing the young, healthy and hopefully the growing numbers of immune to start things back up. With that said when you consider the vulnerable appear to be anyone over 65 and/or with COPD, heart issues, diabetes, obesity or immuno-compromised that's quite a large lump of society (literally) and that's before you count the people they live with. If they go back to work and then come home every night it defeats the point somewhat. Not easy but a compromise will have to be struck I think.

Some good news this week though, an accurate antibody test appears to be on the way and an antibody looks to have been identified that actually prevents infection. Also looks highly likely now that infection does provide immunity afterwards if only short to medium term. The reports of people infected then given the all clear then presenting re-infected were testing errors.

Also interestingly France has identified a positive case from December, a full month before their previously thought first case and several days before Corona virus had been reported to the WHO by China. I think the whole timeframe and calendar of this thing will ultimately need shuffling back a month or so.

#8 Re: The Garden » Covid 19 » 12 weeks ago

Hope you come through it asap Yamcha. Good levels of Vitamin D seem to be linked to better/faster recoveries so if you can get some Vit D supplement tablets and some sunshine it wouldn't be the worst thing.

Looking at the numbers of deaths in the US now I just don't see how China expects the world to believe they kept it to 3000 deaths. Sure they can impose a lockdown more severely than the west would accept but even so. Will be interesting to see what happens in India given their large population although they did move to lockdown the country very early.

With that said there's some interesting data I think from the US that by far the most critically ill demographic from this are of Latin American descent? Don't have a link so happy to be corrected. Meanwhile Spain and Italy have been the worst affected in Europe so far. Yet most east Asian countries at least have quite low death tolls so far.

Wondering if certain parts of the world are genetically more susceptible to it than others?

#9 Re: The Garden » Covid 19 » 13 weeks ago

Sweden will be interesting I think to see how things pan out there. They seem to be the only ones committing to the heard immunity theory, hard not if that would apply to other nations anyway as Sweden is pretty remote and unpopulated in the main. Certainly not got a London/New York type metropolis to like for like comparison.

If nothing else we will learn a lot on how to respond to this kind of thing in the future should it happen again.

Buzz do you have an English translation to that Italian article you keep citing? 40 of 60 quarantined people is interesting but it's pretty meaningless without the who/what/when and where.

Not sure about your flu statement Randall, in Italy more people have died of Covid in 2 months than have died of Flu in the last 10 years combined. They seem to think when all is done it will be around1% fatality rate, which is x10 worse than seasonal flu. Covid is also killing healthy 30 and 40 year olds, not in statistically large numbers but flu doesn't tend to do that. It will be interesting to know why one 35 year old catches it and is asymptomatic whereas another healthy 35 year old ends up on ITU or worse.

#10 Re: The Sunset Strip » Most Recent Movie You've Seen » 13 weeks ago

Watched 'Knives Out' last night. Had heard good things.

Was ok but nothing great.

Gonna watch Joker again over Easter I think.

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