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- Randall Flagg
- Rep: 139
Re: Current Events Thread
Smoking Guns wrote:bigbri wrote:Well, what you see is one thing.
In things that are actually measured, Biden is ahead. He's been raising more money. He's ahead in the polls. Hell, he got better ratings in the head-to-head televised events.
The polls call on more Dems than Pubs, that is because they expect more to vote. They don’t get an accurate sampling of voters.
This is wrong. Depending on the pollster, more Dems or GOP make up the results. In places like Alaska, I think Independents make up the majority or close to it. It’s across the board.
Pollsters have for the most part corrected what they viewed as their 2016 mistakes. And I know you won’t believe this, but some argue they might actually be underestimating Biden’s support because they corrected the other direction.
Exactly. They’re trying to model their sample as close to the projected electorate as they can, to make their polls reasonable. No one wants to be the poll calling Wisconsin by +17 when everyone else has it 3-5+.
Maybe there is a plethora of hidden Trump voters remaining mum, but Trump won the blue wall by less than 100k in most states. If they’ve corrected their sampling from 16, the odds the polls are wrong enough for a Trump landslide is slim.
- Smoking Guns
- Rep: 330
Re: Current Events Thread
bigbri wrote:Smoking Guns wrote:The polls call on more Dems than Pubs, that is because they expect more to vote. They don’t get an accurate sampling of voters.
This is wrong. Depending on the pollster, more Dems or GOP make up the results. In places like Alaska, I think Independents make up the majority or close to it. It’s across the board.
Pollsters have for the most part corrected what they viewed as their 2016 mistakes. And I know you won’t believe this, but some argue they might actually be underestimating Biden’s support because they corrected the other direction.
Exactly. They’re trying to model their sample as close to the projected electorate as they can, to make their polls reasonable. No one wants to be the poll calling Wisconsin by +17 when everyone else has it 3-5+.
Maybe there is a plethora of hidden Trump voters remaining mum, but Trump won the blue wall by less than 100k in most states. If they’ve corrected their sampling from 16, the odds the polls are wrong enough for a Trump landslide is slim.
True but they discounted the Black and Latino vote for Trump... Trump is losing woke whites that joined the BLM but he is actually gaining blacks. I hope it is a wash.
Re: Current Events Thread
?? This is right. Black and Latino men are coming out in greater numbers for Trump than they did in 2016. Biden still leads the category, but by a smaller margin. On the flip side, Biden is getting a greater share of whites. If you do the math, any percentage increase of white support is going to greatly offset and possibly overcome the erosion in blacks and Hispanics. There simply are more white voters out there.
The rest of this post is theory and speculation I’ve seen. BTW, I’m following Nate Silver, Nate Cohn, Dave Wasserman and G Elliott Graham on Twitter. Good stuff if you’re a data geek like me. Anyway, back to fun speculation. You know we had the shy Trump voters in 2016. There are some pretty logical arguments out there that say the shy voter this year is the women married to the men who support Trump. They don’t want to go against their husbands, and let’s say they get a poll call at home, they won’t answer honestly. We already know women are coming out for Biden way more than they did for Clinton, but this group could be getting overlooked.
Re: Current Events Thread
?? This is right. Black and Latino men are coming out in greater numbers for Trump than they did in 2016. Biden still leads the category, but by a smaller margin. On the flip side, Biden is getting a greater share of whites. If you do the math, any percentage increase of white support is going to greatly offset and possibly overcome the erosion in blacks and Hispanics. There simply are more white voters out there.
The rest of this post is theory and speculation I’ve seen. BTW, I’m following Nate Silver, Nate Cohn, Dave Wasserman and G Elliott Graham on Twitter. Good stuff if you’re a data geek like me. Anyway, back to fun speculation. You know we had the shy Trump voters in 2016. There are some pretty logical arguments out there that say the shy voter this year is the women married to the men who support Trump. They don’t want to go against their husbands, and let’s say they get a poll call at home, they won’t answer honestly. We already know women are coming out for Biden way more than they did for Clinton, but this group could be getting overlooked.
Here are a couple of great videos that illustrate your point.
A 1% improvement in the white voting block amounts to exponentially more than an up tick in minority vote.
These videos are very well done attempt to explain how the polls were not wrong in 2016 as Bigbri has stated (with one exception, Wisconsin). They also illustrate the changes that occur when a 1% change in either direction of each voting bloc changes things on both sides.
Again, a 1% increase in the white vote equates to more than a 1% uptick in asian, african american and latino votes combined.
- Smoking Guns
- Rep: 330
Re: Current Events Thread
https://www.instagram.com/reel/CG-zOyfg … ihetqanyjl
Cali going red. Be ready. Haha
Also the above posts are celebrating lack of diversity “oh we are getting more whites, it is cool we are losing some blacks and Hispanics, whites are more important”. Just messing guys but pretty ironic lol.
Re: Current Events Thread
My god, some of you Trump supporters reside in some sort of fantasyland.
He's not remotely a sucessful businessman (this isn't arguable it's fact) and he's a gigantic idiot and a sleazeball. Mitch's point from the previous page has it right.
Tell me, are the higher voter numbers (especially in places like TX) likely to favor Trump or Biden? A simple yes or no will do. Trump barely won in 2016. I think by 70,000. He's ben a disaster in 2020 (too many stupid things to list).
Re: Current Events Thread
The answer to your question is it’s impossible to know who benefits from higher voter turnout. Conventional wisdom is that it helps Democrats. But it could help the GOP too. A 100% turnout in, say, Montana isn’t going to suddenly turn that state blue.
In Texas, we’ll have to wait and see. I turned it blue in the 270 to Win thread because of some data points i’m seeing in polls/early voting: younger, urban, blacks, and seniors. Also Beto O’Rourke’s get out the vote organization. I think Texas goes blue before Ohio in the near future. But we’ll know Tuesday.
Re: Current Events Thread
Guys, I know this has become the "politics" thread, but it's called "current events."
Sean Connery died. https://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-54761824
This is heartbreaking. He was Mr. Olympia, too. He was making a film with Lana Turner once when her husband started beating her. Sean walks up to stop it and the husband pulls a gun on him (he was a mobster). Sean took the gun away from him and beat him unconscious with it.
RIP the real James Bond.
Re: Current Events Thread
misterID wrote:I read Republicans are actually doing better among African-American and Hispanic voters than they were four years ago, and worse with white voters. What a plot twist!
It’s true...white voters are obviously the biggest voting block and whatever Biden has lost with Hispanics and African Americans, he has more than made up with white voters...
Still don’t know if any of this means anything...Biden simply being a man may have made all the difference in the world.
I think the silver lining is that the Trump hate vote, which is incredibly white (like the Obama is cool vote) is kind of an optical illusion. It's not consistent or reliable. Biden could very well win, but the midterm doesn't look good. It's more than likely the economy doesn't recover in two years, especially if the Trump tax cut is repealed and there are more lockdowns. This opens the door for Trump to run in 2024. With the mass exodus out of CALI and NY it's going to be more interesting to see what happens there than what happens to Texas (it ain't going blue).
